bayesRatings

Steelers at Patriots

NFL · Sunday, Sep 21 · 12:00 PM CT · Gillette Stadium · Final PIT 21 – NE 14
← NFL / Sep 21, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
PIT770721
NE070714
Team box
PIT·NE
203
total yards
369
139
passing yards
250
64
rushing yards
119
17
first downs
26
4-9
third downs
6-13
1
turnovers
5
26:40
time of possession
33:20
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Aaron RodgersPIT16/2313921
Drake MayeNE28/3726821
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Jaylen WarrenPIT18470
Drake MayeNE7450
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Calvin Austin IIIPIT3341
Hunter HenryNE8902

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NE +14
PIT +14
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: NE 0 · PIT 14lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PIT 59%, NE 41% · Updated Sep 21, 2025

Expected margin
PIT by 3.4
Expected score
PIT 22.3 – 18.9 NE
Expected total
41.2
SteelersThe matchupPatriots
−144Our fair odds+144
22.3Expected points18.9
−0.02Power rating−0.65
25.5Points / game23.0
31.5Allowed / game23.5
269Total yards / game334
4.8Yards / play5.5
206Passing yards / game244
1−1Season record1−1
3−7Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PIT chance · NE chance
Our model fair59.1%40.9%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PITPittsburgh Steelers−14459%————
NENew England Patriots+14441%————
SpreadPIT by 3.4
PITPittsburgh Steelers−3.4our margin————
NENew England Patriots+3.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 41.2
Over41.2our total————
Under41.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Pittsburgh Steelers by 3.4 expected
Pittsburgh Steelers by 39 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 38 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 37 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 36 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 35 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 34 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 33 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 32 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 31 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 30 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 29 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 28 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 27 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 26 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 25 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 24 points: 2%Pittsburgh Steelers by 23 points: 2%Pittsburgh Steelers by 22 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 21 points: 2%Pittsburgh Steelers by 20 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 19 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 18 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 17 points: 3%Pittsburgh Steelers by 16 points: 2%Pittsburgh Steelers by 15 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 14 points: 4%Pittsburgh Steelers by 13 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 12 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 11 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 10 points: 3%Pittsburgh Steelers by 9 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 8 points: 2%Pittsburgh Steelers by 7 points: 5%Pittsburgh Steelers by 6 points: 4%Pittsburgh Steelers by 5 points: 3%Pittsburgh Steelers by 4 points: 3%Pittsburgh Steelers by 3 points: 9%Pittsburgh Steelers by 2 points: 2%Pittsburgh Steelers by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%New England Patriots by 1 point: 2%New England Patriots by 2 points: 3%New England Patriots by 3 points: 7%New England Patriots by 4 points: 2%New England Patriots by 5 points: 2%New England Patriots by 6 points: 3%New England Patriots by 7 points: 3%New England Patriots by 8 points: 2%New England Patriots by 9 points: 1%New England Patriots by 10 points: 1%New England Patriots by 11 points: <1%New England Patriots by 12 points: 1%New England Patriots by 13 points: 1%New England Patriots by 14 points: 1%New England Patriots by 15 points: 1%New England Patriots by 16 points: 1%New England Patriots by 17 points: 1%New England Patriots by 18 points: 1%New England Patriots by 19 points: <1%New England Patriots by 20 points: 1%New England Patriots by 21 points: 1%New England Patriots by 22 points: <1%New England Patriots by 23 points: <1%New England Patriots by 24 points: 1%New England Patriots by 25 points: <1%New England Patriots by 26 points: <1%New England Patriots by 27 points: <1%New England Patriots by 28 points: <1%New England Patriots by 29 points: <1%New England Patriots by 30 points: <1%New England Patriots by 31 points: <1%New England Patriots by 32 points: <1%New England Patriots by 33 points: <1%New England Patriots by 34 points: <1%New England Patriots by 35 points: <1%New England Patriots by 36 points: <1%New England Patriots by 37 points: <1%New England Patriots by 38 points: <1%New England Patriots by 39 points: <1%
← PIT wins byNE wins by →
Pittsburgh Steelers wins by 3 or more56%
Pittsburgh Steelers wins by 7 or more37%
Pittsburgh Steelers wins by 10 or more29%
Within 3 points either way26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

41.2 expected
8 points: <1%9 points: <1%10 points: <1%11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: 1%17 points: 1%18 points: 1%19 points: 1%20 points: 1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 2%27 points: 2%28 points: 2%29 points: 2%30 points: 3%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 3%34 points: 3%35 points: 3%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 3%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 2%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 1%56 points: 1%57 points: 1%58 points: 1%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: <1%68 points: <1%69 points: <1%70 points: <1%71 points: <1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 34.568%
Total over 41.547%
Total over 48.528%
Total from 35 to 4840%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
PITAaron Rodgers · last 3 games: 64% completions, 240 yds/game, 9 TD, 3 INTstarted
NEDrake Maye · last 3 games: 70% completions, 172 yds/game, 3 TD, 1 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PIT·NE
Sep 14, 2025 vs SEA
last game
Sep 14, 2025 at MIA
6 days
days of rest
6 days
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 2+ games
PIT·NE
−0.02
rating (0 = average)
−0.65
25.5
points / game
23.0
31.5
points allowed / game
23.5
1−1
season record
1−1
0−1
home record
0−1
1−0
away record
1−0
L1
streak
W1
3−7
last 10
3−7
269
total yards / game
334
4.8
yards / play
5.5
206
passing yards / game
244
62
rushing yards / game
91
16.0
first downs / game
18.0
1.0
turnovers / game
0.5

Rating Trend

PIT · NE · 5 days
Pittsburgh SteelersNew England Patriots
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 2 meetings · NE 2−0
Dec 7, 2023at PITNE 21 − 18
Sep 18, 2022at PITNE 17 − 14

PIT · Last 10

3−7 · streak L1
Sep 14, 2025vs SEA17 − 31L
Sep 7, 2025at NYJ34 − 32W
Jan 11, 2025at BAL14 − 28L
Jan 4, 2025vs CIN17 − 19L
Dec 25, 2024vs KC10 − 29L
Dec 21, 2024at BAL17 − 34L
Dec 15, 2024at PHI13 − 27L
Dec 8, 2024vs CLE27 − 14W
Dec 1, 2024at CIN44 − 38W
Nov 21, 2024at CLE19 − 24L

NE · Last 10

3−7 · streak W1
Sep 14, 2025at MIA33 − 27W
Sep 7, 2025vs LV13 − 20L
Jan 5, 2025vs BUF23 − 16W
Dec 28, 2024vs LAC7 − 40L
Dec 22, 2024at BUF21 − 24L
Dec 15, 2024at ARI17 − 30L
Dec 1, 2024vs IND24 − 25L
Nov 24, 2024at MIA15 − 34L
Nov 17, 2024vs LAR22 − 28L
Nov 10, 2024at CHI19 − 3W