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Lions at Ravens

NFL · Monday, Sep 22 · 7:15 PM CT · M&T Bank Stadium · Final DET 38 – BAL 30
← NFL / Sep 22, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
DET7771738
BAL777930
Team box
DET·BAL
426
total yards
318
202
passing yards
233
224
rushing yards
85
24
first downs
21
7-14
third downs
6-11
0
turnovers
1
33:18
time of possession
26:42
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Jared GoffDET20/2820210
Lamar JacksonBAL21/2728830
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
David MontgomeryDET121512
Derrick HenryBAL12501
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Amon-Ra St. BrownDET7771
Mark AndrewsBAL6912

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BAL +14
DET +14
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: BAL 7 · DET 14lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DET 47%, BAL 53% · Updated Sep 22, 2025

Expected margin
BAL by 4.5
Expected score
BAL 33.4 – 28.9 DET
Expected total
62.2
LionsThe matchupRavens
+115Our fair odds−115
28.9Expected points33.4
+1.01Power rating+0.93
32.5Points / game40.5
24.0Allowed / game29.0
378Total yards / game337
6.3Yards / play6.6
267Passing yards / game196
1−1Season record1−1
7−3Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DET chance · BAL chance
Our model fair46.5%53.5%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DETDetroit Lions+11547%————
BALBaltimore Ravens−11553%————
SpreadBAL by 4.5
DETDetroit Lions+4.5our margin————
BALBaltimore Ravens−4.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 62.2
Over62.2our total————
Under62.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Baltimore Ravens by 4.5 expected
Detroit Lions by 44 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 43 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 42 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 41 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 40 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 39 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 38 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 37 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 36 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 35 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 34 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 33 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 32 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 31 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 30 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 29 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 28 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 27 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 26 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 25 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 24 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 23 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 22 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 21 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 20 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 19 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 18 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 17 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 16 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 15 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 14 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 13 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 12 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 11 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 10 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 9 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 8 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 7 points: 4%Detroit Lions by 6 points: 3%Detroit Lions by 5 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 4 points: 3%Detroit Lions by 3 points: 7%Detroit Lions by 2 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 1 point: 2%Baltimore Ravens by 2 points: 3%Baltimore Ravens by 3 points: 7%Baltimore Ravens by 4 points: 2%Baltimore Ravens by 5 points: 2%Baltimore Ravens by 6 points: 4%Baltimore Ravens by 7 points: 4%Baltimore Ravens by 8 points: 3%Baltimore Ravens by 9 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 10 points: 2%Baltimore Ravens by 11 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 12 points: 2%Baltimore Ravens by 13 points: 2%Baltimore Ravens by 14 points: 2%Baltimore Ravens by 15 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 16 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 17 points: 3%Baltimore Ravens by 18 points: 2%Baltimore Ravens by 19 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 20 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 21 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 22 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 23 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 24 points: 2%Baltimore Ravens by 25 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 26 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 27 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 28 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 29 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 30 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 31 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 32 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 33 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 34 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 35 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 36 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 37 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 38 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 39 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 40 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 41 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 42 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 43 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 44 points: <1%
← DET wins byBAL wins by →
Baltimore Ravens wins by 3 or more56%
Baltimore Ravens wins by 7 or more40%
Baltimore Ravens wins by 10 or more32%
Within 3 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

62.2 expected
24 points: <1%25 points: <1%26 points: <1%27 points: <1%28 points: <1%29 points: <1%30 points: <1%31 points: <1%32 points: <1%33 points: 1%34 points: 1%35 points: 1%36 points: 1%37 points: 1%38 points: 1%39 points: 1%40 points: 1%41 points: 1%42 points: 1%43 points: 1%44 points: 1%45 points: 1%46 points: 2%47 points: 2%48 points: 2%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 2%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 3%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 3%62 points: 2%63 points: 2%64 points: 2%65 points: 3%66 points: 3%67 points: 2%68 points: 3%69 points: 2%70 points: 2%71 points: 2%72 points: 2%73 points: 3%74 points: 3%75 points: 2%76 points: 2%77 points: 2%78 points: 2%79 points: 1%80 points: 1%81 points: 1%82 points: 1%83 points: 1%84 points: 1%85 points: 1%86 points: 1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%89 points: 1%90 points: 1%91 points: <1%92 points: <1%93 points: 1%94 points: <1%95 points: <1%96 points: 1%97 points: <1%98 points: <1%99 points: <1%100 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 55.566%
Total over 62.551%
Total over 69.533%
Total from 56 to 6933%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
DETJared Goff · last 3 games: 72% completions, 291 yds/game, 7 TD, 4 INTstarted
BALLamar Jackson · last 3 games: 70% completions, 229 yds/game, 8 TD, 1 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DET·BAL
Sep 14, 2025 vs CHI
last game
Sep 14, 2025 vs CLE
7 days
days of rest
7 days
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 2+ games
DET·BAL
+1.01
rating (0 = average)
+0.93
32.5
points / game
40.5
24.0
points allowed / game
29.0
1−1
season record
1−1
1−0
home record
1−0
0−1
away record
0−1
W1
streak
W1
7−3
last 10
7−3
378
total yards / game
337
6.3
yards / play
6.6
267
passing yards / game
196
112
rushing yards / game
142
20.5
first downs / game
16.5
0.5
turnovers / game
0.5

Rating Trend

DET · BAL · 6 days
Detroit LionsBaltimore Ravens
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 2 meetings · BAL 2−0
Oct 22, 2023at BALBAL 38 − 6
Sep 26, 2021at DETBAL 19 − 17

DET · Last 10

7−3 · streak W1
Sep 14, 2025vs CHI52 − 21W
Sep 7, 2025at GB13 − 27L
Jan 18, 2025vs WSH31 − 45L
Jan 5, 2025vs MIN31 − 9W
Dec 30, 2024at SF40 − 34W
Dec 22, 2024at CHI34 − 17W
Dec 15, 2024vs BUF42 − 48L
Dec 5, 2024vs GB34 − 31W
Nov 28, 2024vs CHI23 − 20W
Nov 24, 2024at IND24 − 6W

BAL · Last 10

7−3 · streak W1
Sep 14, 2025vs CLE41 − 17W
Sep 7, 2025at BUF40 − 41L
Jan 19, 2025at BUF25 − 27L
Jan 11, 2025vs PIT28 − 14W
Jan 4, 2025vs CLE35 − 10W
Dec 25, 2024at HOU31 − 2W
Dec 21, 2024vs PIT34 − 17W
Dec 15, 2024at NYG35 − 14W
Dec 1, 2024vs PHI19 − 24L
Nov 25, 2024at LAC30 − 23W