bayesRatings

Islanders at Hurricanes

NHL · Saturday, Apr 4 · 6:00 PM CT · Lenovo Center · Final NYI 3 – CAR 4
← NHL / Apr 4

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
NYI1113
CAR1214
Team box
NYI·CAR
16
shots
40
0 of 1
power play
0 of 3
52.6
faceoff %
47.4
23
hits
21
19
blocked shots
7
8
penalty minutes
4
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Seth JarvisCAR216
K'Andre MillerCAR021
Sebastian AhoCAR107
Anders LeeNYI104
Jackson BlakeCAR103
Marc GatcombNYI102
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Ilya SorokinNYI4036.900
Brandon BussiCAR1613.812

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CAR +3
NYI +3
P1P2P3
largest lead: CAR 2 · NYI 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NYI 39%, CAR 61% · Updated Apr 4

Expected margin
CAR by 0.8
Expected score
CAR 3.4 – 2.6 NYI
Expected total
6.1
IslandersThe matchupHurricanes
+154Our fair odds−154
2.6Expected goals3.4
−0.01Power rating+0.29
2.9Goals / game3.6
2.9Allowed / game2.9
28.1Shots / game32.4
52.8Faceoff %50.7
19.5Hits / game19.8
42−35Season record48−27
4−6Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NYI chance · CAR chance
Our model fair39.4%60.6%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYINew York Islanders+15439%————
CARCarolina Hurricanes−15461%————
SpreadCAR by 0.8
NYINew York Islanders+0.8our margin————
CARCarolina Hurricanes−0.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.1
Over6.1our total————
Under6.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Carolina Hurricanes by 0.8 expected
New York Islanders by 7 goals: <1%New York Islanders by 6 goals: <1%New York Islanders by 5 goals: 1%New York Islanders by 4 goals: 3%New York Islanders by 3 goals: 7%New York Islanders by 2 goals: 7%New York Islanders by 1 goal: 21%Carolina Hurricanes by 1 goal: 20%Carolina Hurricanes by 2 goals: 12%Carolina Hurricanes by 3 goals: 16%Carolina Hurricanes by 4 goals: 9%Carolina Hurricanes by 5 goals: 4%Carolina Hurricanes by 6 goals: 1%Carolina Hurricanes by 7 goals: <1%
← NYI wins byCAR wins by →
Carolina Hurricanes wins by 2 or more42%
Carolina Hurricanes wins by 3 or more30%
New York Islanders wins by 2 or more18%
Decided by one goal41%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.1 expected
1 goals: 2%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 11%4 goals: 9%5 goals: 21%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 18%8 goals: 8%9 goals: 9%10 goals: 3%11 goals: 3%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.554%
Total over 6.543%
Total over 7.525%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
NYIIlya Sorokin G · last 5 starts: .869 save %, 3.66 GAAstarted
CARBrandon Bussi G · last 5 starts: .879 save %, 2.82 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NYI·CAR
Apr 3 vs PHI
last game
Apr 2 vs CBJ
0 days
days of rest
1 day
yes
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
4
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 75+ games
NYI·CAR
−0.01
rating (0 = average)
+0.29
2.9
goals / game
3.6
2.9
goals allowed / game
2.9
42−35
season record
48−27
21−16
home record
27−12
21−19
away record
21−15
L3
streak
W2
4−6
last 10
7−3
28.1
shots / game
32.4
52.8
faceoff %
50.7
19.5
hits / game
19.8
14.6
blocked shots / game
11.2
4.5
takeaways / game
5.9
14.5
giveaways / game
16.4

Rating Trend

NYI · CAR · 150 days
New York IslandersCarolina Hurricanes
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CAR 7−3
Oct 30, 2025at CARCAR 6 − 2
Mar 30, 2025at CARCAR 6 − 4
Jan 25, 2025at NYINYI 3 − 2 OT
Dec 17, 2024at CARCAR 4 − 0
Dec 7, 2024at NYINYI 4 − 3
Apr 30, 2024at CARCAR 6 − 3post
Apr 27, 2024at NYINYI 3 − 2 OTpost
Apr 25, 2024at NYICAR 3 − 2post
Apr 22, 2024at CARCAR 5 − 3post
Apr 20, 2024at CARCAR 3 − 1post

NYI · Last 10

4−6 · streak L3
Apr 3vs PHI1 − 4L
Mar 31at BUF3 − 4L
Mar 30vs PIT3 − 8L
Mar 28vs FLA5 − 2W
Mar 26vs DAL2 − 1W
Mar 24vs CHI3 − 4L
Mar 22vs CBJ1 − 0W
Mar 21at MTL3 − 7L
Mar 19at OTT2 − 3L
Mar 17at TOR3 − 1W

CAR · Last 10

7−3 · streak W2
Apr 2vs CBJ5 − 1W
Mar 31at CBJ5 − 2W
Mar 29vs MTL1 − 3L
Mar 28vs NJ5 − 2W
Mar 24at MTL2 − 5L
Mar 22at PIT5 − 1W
Mar 20at TOR4 − 3W
Mar 18vs PIT6 − 5W
Mar 17at CBJ1 − 5L
Mar 14at TB4 − 2W