bayesRatings

Rangers at Stars

NHL · Saturday, Apr 11 · 4:00 PM CT · American Airlines Center · Final NYR 0 – DAL 2
← NHL / Apr 11

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
NYR0000
DAL0022
Team box
NYR·DAL
22
shots
19
0 of 5
power play
1 of 4
54.3
faceoff %
45.7
22
hits
14
9
blocked shots
19
15
penalty minutes
17
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Jason RobertsonDAL202
Matt DucheneDAL024
Wyatt JohnstonDAL012
Mavrik BourqueDAL010
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Igor ShesterkinNYR1817.944
Jake OettingerDAL22221.000

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DAL +3
NYR +3
P1P2P3
largest lead: DAL 2 · NYR 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NYR 39%, DAL 61% · Updated Apr 11

Expected margin
DAL by 0.7
Expected score
DAL 3.4 – 2.6 NYR
Expected total
6.0
RangersThe matchupStars
+157Our fair odds−157
2.6Expected goals3.4
−0.06Power rating+0.24
2.9Goals / game3.4
3.1Allowed / game2.8
25.3Shots / game25.3
54.5Faceoff %51.8
25.8Hits / game19.1
33−46Season record47−32
5−5Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NYR chance · DAL chance
Our model fair38.9%61.1%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYRNew York Rangers+15739%————
DALDallas Stars−15761%————
SpreadDAL by 0.7
NYRNew York Rangers+0.7our margin————
DALDallas Stars−0.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.0
Over6.0our total————
Under6.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Dallas Stars by 0.7 expected
New York Rangers by 6 goals: <1%New York Rangers by 5 goals: 1%New York Rangers by 4 goals: 3%New York Rangers by 3 goals: 7%New York Rangers by 2 goals: 7%New York Rangers by 1 goal: 19%Dallas Stars by 1 goal: 22%Dallas Stars by 2 goals: 12%Dallas Stars by 3 goals: 15%Dallas Stars by 4 goals: 8%Dallas Stars by 5 goals: 3%Dallas Stars by 6 goals: 1%
← NYR wins byDAL wins by →
Dallas Stars wins by 2 or more39%
Dallas Stars wins by 3 or more27%
New York Rangers wins by 2 or more19%
Decided by one goal42%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.0 expected
1 goals: 2%2 goals: 3%3 goals: 12%4 goals: 9%5 goals: 22%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 18%8 goals: 7%9 goals: 9%10 goals: 3%11 goals: 3%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.553%
Total over 6.542%
Total over 7.523%
Total from 6 to 729%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
NYRIgor Shesterkin G · last 5 starts: .918 save %, 2.02 GAAstarted
DALJake Oettinger G · last 5 starts: .869 save %, 2.79 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NYR·DAL
Apr 8 vs BUF
last game
Apr 9 vs MIN
2 days
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 79+ games
NYR·DAL
−0.06
rating (0 = average)
+0.24
2.9
goals / game
3.4
3.1
goals allowed / game
2.8
33−46
season record
47−32
14−27
home record
25−15
19−19
away record
22−17
L1
streak
W2
5−5
last 10
4−6
25.3
shots / game
25.3
54.5
faceoff %
51.8
25.8
hits / game
19.1
14.4
blocked shots / game
14.9
4.5
takeaways / game
4.6
15.1
giveaways / game
14.5

Rating Trend

NYR · DAL · 156 days
New York RangersDallas Stars
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · DAL 3−6
Dec 2, 2025at NYRNYR 3 − 2 OT
Jan 7, 2025at NYRDAL 5 − 4 OT
Dec 20, 2024at DALNYR 3 − 1
Feb 20, 2024at NYRNYR 3 − 1
Nov 20, 2023at DALDAL 6 − 3
Jan 12, 2023at NYRNYR 2 − 1 OT
Oct 29, 2022at DALNYR 6 − 3
Mar 12, 2022at DALNYR 7 − 4
Oct 14, 2021at NYRDAL 3 − 2 OT

NYR · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Apr 8vs BUF3 − 5L
Apr 5vs WSH8 − 1W
Apr 4vs DET4 − 1W
Apr 2vs MTL2 − 3L
Mar 31vs NJ4 − 1W
Mar 29vs FLA3 − 1W
Mar 27vs CHI6 − 1W
Mar 25at TOR3 − 4L
Mar 23vs OTT1 − 2L
Mar 22vs WPG2 − 3L

DAL · Last 10

4−6 · streak W2
Apr 9vs MIN5 − 4W
Apr 7vs CGY4 − 3W
Apr 4vs COL0 − 2L
Apr 2vs WPG3 − 0W
Mar 31at BOS3 − 6L
Mar 29at PHI1 − 2L
Mar 28at PIT6 − 3W
Mar 26at NYI1 − 2L
Mar 24vs NJ4 − 6L
Mar 22vs VGK2 − 3L