bayesRatings

Hurricanes at Islanders

NHL · Tuesday, Apr 14 · 6:00 PM CT · UBS Arena · Final CAR 2 – NYI 1
← NHL / Apr 14

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
CAR1012
NYI0101
Team box
CAR·NYI
21
shots
30
0 of 1
power play
0 of 2
50.0
faceoff %
50.0
11
hits
10
17
blocked shots
7
4
penalty minutes
2
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Nikolaj EhlersCAR105
Bo HorvatNYI102
Mark JankowskiCAR101
Mathew BarzalNYI013
Logan StankovenCAR012
Victor EklundNYI012
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Brandon BussiCAR3029.967
David RittichNYI2119.905

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NYI +3
CAR +3
P1P2P3
largest lead: NYI 0 · CAR 1lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CAR 57%, NYI 43% · Updated Apr 14

Expected margin
CAR by 0.6
Expected score
CAR 3.3 – 2.7 NYI
Expected total
6.0
HurricanesThe matchupIslanders
−134Our fair odds+134
3.3Expected goals2.7
+0.38Power rating−0.06
3.6Goals / game2.9
3.0Allowed / game3.0
32.3Shots / game28.1
50.3Faceoff %52.7
20.1Hits / game19.6
52−29Season record43−38
7−3Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CAR chance · NYI chance
Our model fair57.3%42.7%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CARCarolina Hurricanes−13457%————
NYINew York Islanders+13443%————
SpreadCAR by 0.6
CARCarolina Hurricanes−0.6our margin————
NYINew York Islanders+0.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.0
Over6.0our total————
Under6.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Carolina Hurricanes by 0.6 expected
Carolina Hurricanes by 6 goals: 1%Carolina Hurricanes by 5 goals: 3%Carolina Hurricanes by 4 goals: 8%Carolina Hurricanes by 3 goals: 15%Carolina Hurricanes by 2 goals: 12%Carolina Hurricanes by 1 goal: 19%New York Islanders by 1 goal: 23%New York Islanders by 2 goals: 8%New York Islanders by 3 goals: 8%New York Islanders by 4 goals: 3%New York Islanders by 5 goals: 1%New York Islanders by 6 goals: <1%
← CAR wins byNYI wins by →
Carolina Hurricanes wins by 2 or more38%
Carolina Hurricanes wins by 3 or more27%
New York Islanders wins by 2 or more20%
Decided by one goal42%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.0 expected
1 goals: 2%2 goals: 3%3 goals: 12%4 goals: 9%5 goals: 22%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 18%8 goals: 7%9 goals: 9%10 goals: 3%11 goals: 3%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.553%
Total over 6.542%
Total over 7.523%
Total from 6 to 729%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
CARBrandon Bussi G · last 5 starts: .865 save %, 2.75 GAAstarted
NYIDavid Rittich G · last 5 starts: .885 save %, 3.09 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CAR·NYI
Apr 13 at PHI
last game
Apr 12 vs MTL
0 days
days of rest
1 day
yes
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
3
4th straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 81+ games
CAR·NYI
+0.38
rating (0 = average)
−0.06
3.6
goals / game
2.9
3.0
goals allowed / game
3.0
52−29
season record
43−38
29−12
home record
22−18
23−17
away record
21−20
L1
streak
L2
7−3
last 10
3−7
32.3
shots / game
28.1
50.3
faceoff %
52.7
20.1
hits / game
19.6
11.2
blocked shots / game
14.5
5.8
takeaways / game
4.5
16.2
giveaways / game
14.4

Rating Trend

CAR · NYI · 159 days
Carolina HurricanesNew York Islanders
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NYI 3−7
Apr 4at CARCAR 4 − 3
Oct 30, 2025at CARCAR 6 − 2
Mar 30, 2025at CARCAR 6 − 4
Jan 25, 2025at NYINYI 3 − 2 OT
Dec 17, 2024at CARCAR 4 − 0
Dec 7, 2024at NYINYI 4 − 3
Apr 30, 2024at CARCAR 6 − 3post
Apr 27, 2024at NYINYI 3 − 2 OTpost
Apr 25, 2024at NYICAR 3 − 2post
Apr 22, 2024at CARCAR 5 − 3post

CAR · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
Apr 13at PHI2 − 3L
Apr 11at UTAH4 − 1W
Apr 9at CHI7 − 2W
Apr 7vs BOS6 − 5W
Apr 5at OTT3 − 6L
Apr 4vs NYI4 − 3W
Apr 2vs CBJ5 − 1W
Mar 31at CBJ5 − 2W
Mar 29vs MTL1 − 3L
Mar 28vs NJ5 − 2W

NYI · Last 10

3−7 · streak L2
Apr 12vs MTL1 − 4L
Apr 11vs OTT0 − 3L
Apr 9vs TOR5 − 3W
Apr 4at CAR3 − 4L
Apr 3vs PHI1 − 4L
Mar 31at BUF3 − 4L
Mar 30vs PIT3 − 8L
Mar 28vs FLA5 − 2W
Mar 26vs DAL2 − 1W
Mar 24vs CHI3 − 4L