bayesRatings

Flyers at Penguins

NHL · Monday, Apr 27 · 6:00 PM CT · PPG Paints Arena · Final PHI 2 – PIT 3
← NHL / Apr 27

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
PHI0202
PIT1203
Team box
PHI·PIT
20
shots
21
0 of 2
power play
0 of 2
53.3
faceoff %
46.7
42
hits
37
16
blocked shots
15
10
penalty minutes
8
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Rasmus RistolainenPHI021
Sidney CrosbyPIT020
Alex BumpPHI104
Connor DewarPIT102
Elmer SoderblomPIT102
Travis SanheimPHI101
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Dan VladarPHI2118.857
Arturs SilovsPIT2018.900

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
PIT +3
PHI +3
P1P2P3
largest lead: PIT 2 · PHI 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PHI 46%, PIT 54% · Updated Apr 27

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
PIT 3.4 – 3.3 PHI
Expected total
6.7
FlyersThe matchupPenguins
+118Our fair odds−118
3.3Expected goals3.4
+0.02Power rating+0.04
3.0Goals / game3.6
3.0Allowed / game3.3
25.5Shots / game28.6
49.4Faceoff %48.2
23.0Hits / game17.6
43−39 · 3−1 postSeason record41−41 · 1−3 post
8−2Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PHI chance · PIT chance
Our model fair45.9%54.1%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PHIPhiladelphia Flyers+11846%————
PITPittsburgh Penguins−11854%————
Spreadabout even
PHIPhiladelphia Flyers+0.1our margin————
PITPittsburgh Penguins−0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.7
Over6.7our total————
Under6.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Philadelphia Flyers by 6 goals: <1%Philadelphia Flyers by 5 goals: 2%Philadelphia Flyers by 4 goals: 6%Philadelphia Flyers by 3 goals: 11%Philadelphia Flyers by 2 goals: 9%Philadelphia Flyers by 1 goal: 17%Pittsburgh Penguins by 1 goal: 24%Pittsburgh Penguins by 2 goals: 10%Pittsburgh Penguins by 3 goals: 11%Pittsburgh Penguins by 4 goals: 6%Pittsburgh Penguins by 5 goals: 2%Pittsburgh Penguins by 6 goals: <1%
← PHI wins byPIT wins by →
Pittsburgh Penguins wins by 2 or more30%
Pittsburgh Penguins wins by 3 or more20%
Philadelphia Flyers wins by 2 or more29%
Decided by one goal41%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.7 expected
1 goals: 1%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 8%4 goals: 7%5 goals: 19%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 20%8 goals: 9%9 goals: 12%10 goals: 4%11 goals: 5%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%14 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.564%
Total over 6.553%
Total over 7.533%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
PHIDan Vladar G · last 5 starts: .926 save %, 1.78 GAAstarted
PITArturs Silovs G · last 5 starts: .884 save %, 3.21 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PHI·PIT
Apr 25 vs PIT
last game
Apr 25 at PHI
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 82+ games
PHI·PIT
+0.02
rating (0 = average)
+0.04
3.0
goals / game
3.6
3.0
goals allowed / game
3.3
43−39 · 3−1 post
season record
41−41 · 1−3 post
20−21
home record
20−21
23−18
away record
21−20
L1
streak
W1
8−2
last 10
4−6
25.5
shots / game
28.6
49.4
faceoff %
48.2
23.0
hits / game
17.6
15.1
blocked shots / game
14.7
4.3
takeaways / game
5.0
14.7
giveaways / game
16.4

Rating Trend

PHI · PIT · 171 days
Philadelphia FlyersPittsburgh Penguins
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · PIT 4−6
Apr 25at PHIPIT 4 − 2post
Apr 22at PHIPHI 5 − 2post
Apr 20at PITPHI 3 − 0post
Apr 18at PITPHI 3 − 2post
Mar 7at PITPHI 4 − 3 SO
Jan 15at PITPIT 6 − 3
Dec 1, 2025at PHIPIT 5 − 1
Oct 28, 2025at PHIPHI 3 − 2 SO
Feb 27, 2025at PITPIT 5 − 4 OT
Feb 25, 2025at PHIPHI 6 − 1

PHI · Last 10

8−2 · streak L1
Apr 25vs PIT2 − 4L
Apr 22vs PIT5 − 2W
Apr 20at PIT3 − 0W
Apr 18at PIT3 − 2W
Apr 14vs MTL4 − 2W
Apr 13vs CAR3 − 2W
Apr 11at WPG7 − 1W
Apr 9at DET3 − 6L
Apr 7at NJ5 − 1W
Apr 5vs BOS2 − 1W

PIT · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Apr 25at PHI4 − 2W
Apr 22at PHI2 − 5L
Apr 20vs PHI0 − 3L
Apr 18vs PHI2 − 3L
Apr 14at STL5 − 7L
Apr 12at WSH0 − 3L
Apr 11vs WSH3 − 6L
Apr 9at NJ5 − 2W
Apr 5vs FLA5 − 2W
Apr 4vs FLA9 − 4W