bayesRatings

Hurricanes at Canadiens

NHL · Wednesday, May 27 · 7:00 PM CT · Bell Centre · Final CAR 4 – MTL 0
← NHL / May 27

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
CAR3014
MTL0000
Team box
CAR·MTL
44
shots
18
1 of 6
power play
0 of 2
46.3
faceoff %
53.7
30
hits
30
18
blocked shots
23
24
penalty minutes
32
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Shayne GostisbehereCAR021
Nikolaj EhlersCAR021
Logan StankovenCAR107
Andrei SvechnikovCAR106
Sebastian AhoCAR102
Jordan StaalCAR101
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Frederik AndersenCAR18181.000
Jakub DobesMTL4340.930

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MTL +4
CAR +4
P1P2P3
largest lead: MTL 0 · CAR 4lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CAR 53%, MTL 47% · Updated May 27

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
CAR 3.3 – 3.0 MTL
Expected total
6.3
HurricanesThe matchupCanadiens
−112Our fair odds+112
3.3Expected goals3.0
+0.47Power rating+0.23
3.6Goals / game3.5
2.9Allowed / game3.1
32.2Shots / game26.3
50.3Faceoff %50.9
20.0Hits / game22.1
53−29 · 10−1 postSeason record48−34 · 9−8 post
9−1Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CAR chance · MTL chance
Our model fair52.7%47.3%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CARCarolina Hurricanes−11253%————
MTLMontreal Canadiens+11247%————
Spreadabout even
CARCarolina Hurricanes−0.3our margin————
MTLMontreal Canadiens+0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.3
Over6.3our total————
Under6.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Carolina Hurricanes by 6 goals: 1%Carolina Hurricanes by 5 goals: 3%Carolina Hurricanes by 4 goals: 7%Carolina Hurricanes by 3 goals: 13%Carolina Hurricanes by 2 goals: 11%Carolina Hurricanes by 1 goal: 19%Montreal Canadiens by 1 goal: 23%Montreal Canadiens by 2 goals: 9%Montreal Canadiens by 3 goals: 9%Montreal Canadiens by 4 goals: 4%Montreal Canadiens by 5 goals: 1%Montreal Canadiens by 6 goals: <1%
← CAR wins byMTL wins by →
Carolina Hurricanes wins by 2 or more34%
Carolina Hurricanes wins by 3 or more23%
Montreal Canadiens wins by 2 or more24%
Decided by one goal42%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.3 expected
1 goals: 2%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 10%4 goals: 8%5 goals: 20%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 19%8 goals: 8%9 goals: 10%10 goals: 3%11 goals: 4%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.558%
Total over 6.547%
Total over 7.528%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
CARFrederik Andersen G · last 5 starts: .854 save %, 2.25 GAAstarted
MTLJakub Dobes G · last 5 starts: .903 save %, 3.01 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CAR·MTL
May 25 at MTL
last game
May 25 vs CAR
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 82+ games
CAR·MTL
+0.47
rating (0 = average)
+0.23
3.6
goals / game
3.5
2.9
goals allowed / game
3.1
53−29 · 10−1 post
season record
48−34 · 9−8 post
29−12
home record
24−17
24−17
away record
24−17
W2
streak
L2
9−1
last 10
5−5
32.2
shots / game
26.3
50.3
faceoff %
50.9
20.0
hits / game
22.1
11.3
blocked shots / game
16.2
5.7
takeaways / game
4.4
16.2
giveaways / game
13.7

Rating Trend

CAR · MTL · 198 days
Carolina HurricanesMontreal Canadiens
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MTL 6−4
May 25at MTLCAR 3 − 2 OTpost
May 23at CARCAR 3 − 2 OTpost
May 21at CARMTL 6 − 2post
Mar 29at CARMTL 3 − 1
Mar 24at MTLMTL 5 − 2
Jan 1at CARMTL 7 − 5
Apr 16, 2025at MTLMTL 4 − 2
Mar 28, 2025at CARCAR 4 − 1
Feb 25, 2025at MTLMTL 4 − 0
Mar 30, 2024at MTLCAR 3 − 0

CAR · Last 10

9−1 · streak W2
May 25at MTL3 − 2W
May 23vs MTL3 − 2W
May 21vs MTL2 − 6L
May 9at PHI3 − 2W
May 7at PHI4 − 1W
May 4vs PHI3 − 2W
May 2vs PHI3 − 0W
Apr 25at OTT4 − 2W
Apr 23at OTT2 − 1W
Apr 20vs OTT3 − 2W

MTL · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
May 25vs CAR2 − 3L
May 23at CAR2 − 3L
May 21at CAR6 − 2W
May 18at BUF3 − 2W
May 16vs BUF3 − 8L
May 14at BUF6 − 3W
May 12vs BUF2 − 3L
May 10vs BUF6 − 2W
May 8at BUF5 − 1W
May 6at BUF2 − 4L