bayesRatings

Canadiens at Sabres

NHL · Wednesday, May 6 · 6:00 PM CT · KeyBank Center · Final MTL 2 – BUF 4
← NHL / May 6

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
MTL1102
BUF2204
Team box
MTL·BUF
28
shots
16
1 of 2
power play
2 of 3
62.7
faceoff %
37.3
31
hits
27
12
blocked shots
13
6
penalty minutes
4
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Josh DoanBUF113
Ryan McLeodBUF112
Zach BensonBUF021
Nick SuzukiMTL103
Bowen ByramBUF102
Jordan GreenwayBUF101
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Jakub DobesMTL1612.750
Alex LyonBUF2826.929

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BUF +3
MTL +3
P1P2P3
largest lead: BUF 3 · MTL 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MTL 43%, BUF 57% · Updated May 6

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
BUF 3.5 – 3.0 MTL
Expected total
6.5
CanadiensThe matchupSabres
+132Our fair odds−132
3.0Expected goals3.5
+0.19Power rating+0.33
3.5Goals / game3.5
3.1Allowed / game2.9
26.3Shots / game28.1
50.9Faceoff %45.9
22.1Hits / game19.2
48−34 · 4−3 postSeason record50−32 · 4−2 post
5−5Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MTL chance · BUF chance
Our model fair43.1%56.9%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MTLMontreal Canadiens+13243%————
BUFBuffalo Sabres−13257%————
Spreadabout even
MTLMontreal Canadiens+0.4our margin————
BUFBuffalo Sabres−0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.5
Over6.5our total————
Under6.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Montreal Canadiens by 6 goals: <1%Montreal Canadiens by 5 goals: 2%Montreal Canadiens by 4 goals: 5%Montreal Canadiens by 3 goals: 9%Montreal Canadiens by 2 goals: 8%Montreal Canadiens by 1 goal: 19%Buffalo Sabres by 1 goal: 22%Buffalo Sabres by 2 goals: 11%Buffalo Sabres by 3 goals: 13%Buffalo Sabres by 4 goals: 7%Buffalo Sabres by 5 goals: 3%Buffalo Sabres by 6 goals: 1%
← MTL wins byBUF wins by →
Buffalo Sabres wins by 2 or more35%
Buffalo Sabres wins by 3 or more24%
Montreal Canadiens wins by 2 or more24%
Decided by one goal41%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.5 expected
1 goals: 1%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 9%4 goals: 7%5 goals: 19%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 19%8 goals: 8%9 goals: 11%10 goals: 4%11 goals: 4%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%14 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.561%
Total over 6.550%
Total over 7.530%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
MTLJakub Dobes G · last 5 starts: .935 save %, 1.75 GAAstarted
BUFAlex Lyon G · last 5 starts: .927 save %, 1.76 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MTL·BUF
May 3 at TB
last game
May 1 at BOS
2 days
days of rest
4 days
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
1
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 82+ games
MTL·BUF
+0.19
rating (0 = average)
+0.33
3.5
goals / game
3.5
3.1
goals allowed / game
2.9
48−34 · 4−3 post
season record
50−32 · 4−2 post
24−17
home record
26−15
24−17
away record
24−17
W1
streak
W1
5−5
last 10
7−3
26.3
shots / game
28.1
50.9
faceoff %
45.9
22.1
hits / game
19.2
16.2
blocked shots / game
14.2
4.4
takeaways / game
5.0
13.7
giveaways / game
15.5

Rating Trend

MTL · BUF · 180 days
Montreal CanadiensBuffalo Sabres
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · BUF 4−6
Jan 31at BUFMTL 4 − 2
Jan 22at MTLBUF 4 − 2
Jan 15at BUFBUF 5 − 3
Oct 20, 2025at MTLMTL 4 − 2
Mar 3, 2025at MTLMTL 4 − 3 OT
Mar 1, 2025at BUFMTL 4 − 2
Dec 17, 2024at MTLMTL 6 − 1
Nov 11, 2024at BUFMTL 7 − 5
Feb 21, 2024at MTLBUF 3 − 2
Jan 4, 2024at MTLBUF 6 − 1

MTL · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
May 3at TB2 − 1W
May 1vs TB0 − 1L
Apr 29at TB3 − 2W
Apr 26vs TB2 − 3L
Apr 24vs TB3 − 2W
Apr 21at TB2 − 3L
Apr 19at TB4 − 3W
Apr 14at PHI2 − 4L
Apr 12at NYI4 − 1W
Apr 11vs CBJ2 − 5L

BUF · Last 10

7−3 · streak W1
May 1at BOS4 − 1W
Apr 28vs BOS1 − 2L
Apr 26at BOS6 − 1W
Apr 23at BOS3 − 1W
Apr 21vs BOS2 − 4L
Apr 19vs BOS4 − 3W
Apr 15vs DAL3 − 4L
Apr 13at CHI5 − 1W
Apr 9vs CBJ5 − 0W
Apr 8at NYR5 − 3W