bayesRatings

Bruins at Sabres

NHL · Tuesday, Apr 21 · 6:30 PM CT · KeyBank Center · Final BOS 4 – BUF 2
← NHL / Apr 21

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
BOS0314
BUF0022
Team box
BOS·BUF
27
shots
35
1 of 5
power play
0 of 5
54.5
faceoff %
45.5
32
hits
30
27
blocked shots
10
47
penalty minutes
47
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Viktor ArvidssonBOS205
Casey MittelstadtBOS022
Jonathan AspirotBOS021
David PastrnakBOS020
Bowen ByramBUF104
Pavel ZachaBOS102
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Jeremy SwaymanBOS3533.943
Ukko-Pekka LuukkonenBUF2016.800
Alex LyonBUF771.000

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BUF +4
BOS +4
P1P2P3
largest lead: BUF 0 · BOS 4lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was BOS 40%, BUF 60% · Updated Apr 21

Expected margin
BUF by 0.5
Expected score
BUF 3.5 – 3.0 BOS
Expected total
6.6
BruinsThe matchupSabres
+147Our fair odds−147
3.0Expected goals3.5
+0.06Power rating+0.30
3.3Goals / game3.5
3.0Allowed / game2.9
27.0Shots / game28.1
53.1Faceoff %45.9
22.7Hits / game19.2
45−37 · 0−1 postSeason record50−32 · 1−0 post
4−6Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BOS chance · BUF chance
Our model fair40.5%59.5%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
BOSBoston Bruins+14740%————
BUFBuffalo Sabres−14760%————
SpreadBUF by 0.5
BOSBoston Bruins+0.5our margin————
BUFBuffalo Sabres−0.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.6
Over6.6our total————
Under6.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Buffalo Sabres by 0.5 expected
Boston Bruins by 6 goals: <1%Boston Bruins by 5 goals: 1%Boston Bruins by 4 goals: 4%Boston Bruins by 3 goals: 9%Boston Bruins by 2 goals: 8%Boston Bruins by 1 goal: 17%Buffalo Sabres by 1 goal: 24%Buffalo Sabres by 2 goals: 11%Buffalo Sabres by 3 goals: 14%Buffalo Sabres by 4 goals: 8%Buffalo Sabres by 5 goals: 3%Buffalo Sabres by 6 goals: 1%
← BOS wins byBUF wins by →
Buffalo Sabres wins by 2 or more36%
Buffalo Sabres wins by 3 or more25%
Boston Bruins wins by 2 or more23%
Decided by one goal41%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.6 expected
1 goals: 1%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 9%4 goals: 7%5 goals: 19%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 19%8 goals: 9%9 goals: 12%10 goals: 4%11 goals: 4%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%14 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.562%
Total over 6.551%
Total over 7.532%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
BOSJeremy Swayman G · last 5 starts: .930 save %, 1.83 GAAstarted
BUFUkko-Pekka Luukkonen G · last 5 starts: .893 save %, 2.21 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BOS·BUF
Apr 19 at BUF
last game
Apr 19 vs BOS
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
2
games in last 7 days
2
2nd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 82+ games
BOS·BUF
+0.06
rating (0 = average)
+0.30
3.3
goals / game
3.5
3.0
goals allowed / game
2.9
45−37 · 0−1 post
season record
50−32 · 1−0 post
29−12
home record
26−15
16−25
away record
24−17
L1
streak
W1
4−6
last 10
7−3
27.0
shots / game
28.1
53.1
faceoff %
45.9
22.7
hits / game
19.2
15.1
blocked shots / game
14.2
4.6
takeaways / game
5.0
16.4
giveaways / game
15.5

Rating Trend

BOS · BUF · 165 days
Boston BruinsBuffalo Sabres
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · BUF 5−5
Apr 19at BUFBUF 4 − 3post
Mar 25at BUFBOS 4 − 3 OT
Dec 27, 2025at BUFBUF 4 − 1
Oct 30, 2025at BOSBOS 4 − 3 OT
Oct 11, 2025at BOSBOS 3 − 1
Apr 6, 2025at BUFBUF 6 − 3
Mar 17, 2025at BOSBUF 3 − 2 OT
Jan 28, 2025at BUFBUF 7 − 2
Dec 21, 2024at BOSBOS 3 − 1
Dec 27, 2023at BUFBOS 4 − 1

BOS · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Apr 19at BUF3 − 4L
Apr 14vs NJ4 − 0W
Apr 12at CBJ3 − 2W
Apr 11vs TB1 − 2L
Apr 7at CAR5 − 6L
Apr 5at PHI1 − 2L
Apr 4at TB1 − 3L
Apr 2at FLA1 − 2L
Mar 31vs DAL6 − 3W
Mar 29at CBJ4 − 3W

BUF · Last 10

7−3 · streak W1
Apr 19vs BOS4 − 3W
Apr 15vs DAL3 − 4L
Apr 13at CHI5 − 1W
Apr 9vs CBJ5 − 0W
Apr 8at NYR5 − 3W
Apr 6vs TB4 − 2W
Apr 4at WSH2 − 6L
Apr 2at OTT1 − 4L
Mar 31vs NYI4 − 3W
Mar 28vs SEA3 − 2W