bayesRatings

Bruins at Sabres

NHL · Saturday, Dec 27 · 6:00 PM CT · KeyBank Center · Final BOS 1 – BUF 4
← NHL / Dec 27, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
BOS1001
BUF0314
Team box
BOS·BUF
23
shots
34
0 of 1
power play
0 of 3
57.7
faceoff %
42.3
27
hits
18
12
blocked shots
13
6
penalty minutes
2
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Mattias SamuelssonBUF122
Peyton KrebsBUF111
Tage ThompsonBUF024
Jack QuinnBUF022
Josh NorrisBUF102
Ryan McLeodBUF102
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Joonas KorpisaloBOS3330.909
Ukko-Pekka LuukkonenBUF2322.957

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BUF +3
BOS +3
P1P2P3
largest lead: BUF 3 · BOS 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was BOS 46%, BUF 54% · Updated Dec 27, 2025

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
BUF 3.6 – 3.2 BOS
Expected total
6.8
BruinsThe matchupSabres
+119Our fair odds−119
3.2Expected goals3.6
−0.08Power rating−0.07
3.2Goals / game3.1
3.3Allowed / game3.2
27.2Shots / game28.2
51.8Faceoff %43.9
24.8Hits / game19.0
20−18Season record18−18
5−5Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BOS chance · BUF chance
Our model fair45.7%54.3%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
BOSBoston Bruins+11946%————
BUFBuffalo Sabres−11954%————
Spreadabout even
BOSBoston Bruins+0.4our margin————
BUFBuffalo Sabres−0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.8
Over6.8our total————
Under6.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Boston Bruins by 6 goals: <1%Boston Bruins by 5 goals: 2%Boston Bruins by 4 goals: 5%Boston Bruins by 3 goals: 9%Boston Bruins by 2 goals: 8%Boston Bruins by 1 goal: 21%Buffalo Sabres by 1 goal: 19%Buffalo Sabres by 2 goals: 11%Buffalo Sabres by 3 goals: 14%Buffalo Sabres by 4 goals: 8%Buffalo Sabres by 5 goals: 3%Buffalo Sabres by 6 goals: 1%
← BOS wins byBUF wins by →
Buffalo Sabres wins by 2 or more36%
Buffalo Sabres wins by 3 or more25%
Boston Bruins wins by 2 or more24%
Decided by one goal40%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.8 expected
1 goals: 1%2 goals: 1%3 goals: 8%4 goals: 7%5 goals: 18%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 20%8 goals: 9%9 goals: 12%10 goals: 5%11 goals: 5%12 goals: 2%13 goals: 1%14 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.565%
Total over 6.554%
Total over 7.535%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
BOSJoonas Korpisalo G · last 5 starts: .886 save %, 3.65 GAAstarted
BUFUkko-Pekka Luukkonen G · last 5 starts: .885 save %, 2.81 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BOS·BUF
Dec 23, 2025 vs MTL
last game
Dec 23, 2025 at OTT
3 days
days of rest
3 days
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 36+ games
BOS·BUF
−0.08
rating (0 = average)
−0.07
3.2
goals / game
3.1
3.3
goals allowed / game
3.2
20−18
season record
18−18
12−9
home record
11−7
8−9
away record
7−11
L4
streak
W7
5−5
last 10
7−3
27.2
shots / game
28.2
51.8
faceoff %
43.9
24.8
hits / game
19.0
16.1
blocked shots / game
15.4
4.7
takeaways / game
5.1
16.2
giveaways / game
15.6

Rating Trend

BOS · BUF · 71 days
Boston BruinsBuffalo Sabres
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · BUF 4−6
Oct 30, 2025at BOSBOS 4 − 3 OT
Oct 11, 2025at BOSBOS 3 − 1
Apr 6, 2025at BUFBUF 6 − 3
Mar 17, 2025at BOSBUF 3 − 2 OT
Jan 28, 2025at BUFBUF 7 − 2
Dec 21, 2024at BOSBOS 3 − 1
Dec 27, 2023at BUFBOS 4 − 1
Dec 7, 2023at BOSBUF 3 − 1
Nov 14, 2023at BUFBOS 5 − 2
Mar 19, 2023at BUFBOS 7 − 0

BOS · Last 10

5−5 · streak L4
Dec 23, 2025vs MTL2 − 6L
Dec 21, 2025vs OTT2 − 6L
Dec 20, 2025vs VAN4 − 5L
Dec 18, 2025vs EDM1 − 3L
Dec 16, 2025vs UTAH4 − 1W
Dec 14, 2025at MIN2 − 6L
Dec 11, 2025at WPG6 − 3W
Dec 9, 2025at STL5 − 2W
Dec 6, 2025vs NJ4 − 1W
Dec 4, 2025vs STL5 − 2W

BUF · Last 10

7−3 · streak W7
Dec 23, 2025at OTT3 − 2W
Dec 21, 2025at NJ3 − 1W
Dec 20, 2025vs NYI3 − 2W
Dec 18, 2025vs PHI5 − 3W
Dec 14, 2025at SEA3 − 1W
Dec 11, 2025at VAN3 − 2W
Dec 9, 2025at EDM4 − 3W
Dec 8, 2025at CGY4 − 7L
Dec 5, 2025at WPG1 − 4L
Dec 3, 2025at PHI2 − 5L