bayesRatings

Canadiens at Lightning

NHL · Sunday, Apr 19 · 4:45 PM CT · Benchmark International Arena · Final MTL 4 – TB 3
← NHL / Apr 19

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123OTT
MTL11114
TB02103
Team box
MTL·TB
19
shots
23
3 of 5
power play
2 of 5
61.0
faceoff %
39.0
42
hits
44
17
blocked shots
10
14
penalty minutes
14
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Juraj SlafkovskyMTL307
Jake GuentzelTB034
Brandon HagelTB203
Nikita KucherovTB025
Cole CaufieldMTL022
Nick SuzukiMTL020
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Jakub DobesMTL2320.870
Andrei VasilevskiyTB1915.789

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TB +3
MTL +3
P1P2P3OT
largest lead: TB 1 · MTL 1lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MTL 42%, TB 58% · Updated Apr 19

Expected margin
TB by 0.6
Expected score
TB 3.5 – 3.0 MTL
Expected total
6.5
CanadiensThe matchupLightning
+137Our fair odds−137
3.0Expected goals3.5
+0.19Power rating+0.37
3.5Goals / game3.5
3.1Allowed / game2.8
26.3Shots / game28.1
50.9Faceoff %47.3
22.1Hits / game20.0
48−34Season record50−32
7−3Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MTL chance · TB chance
Our model fair42.1%57.9%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MTLMontreal Canadiens+13742%————
TBTampa Bay Lightning−13758%————
SpreadTB by 0.6
MTLMontreal Canadiens+0.6our margin————
TBTampa Bay Lightning−0.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.5
Over6.5our total————
Under6.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Tampa Bay Lightning by 0.6 expected
Montreal Canadiens by 6 goals: <1%Montreal Canadiens by 5 goals: 1%Montreal Canadiens by 4 goals: 4%Montreal Canadiens by 3 goals: 8%Montreal Canadiens by 2 goals: 8%Montreal Canadiens by 1 goal: 21%Tampa Bay Lightning by 1 goal: 20%Tampa Bay Lightning by 2 goals: 11%Tampa Bay Lightning by 3 goals: 15%Tampa Bay Lightning by 4 goals: 8%Tampa Bay Lightning by 5 goals: 3%Tampa Bay Lightning by 6 goals: 1%
← MTL wins byTB wins by →
Tampa Bay Lightning wins by 2 or more39%
Tampa Bay Lightning wins by 3 or more27%
Montreal Canadiens wins by 2 or more21%
Decided by one goal40%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.5 expected
1 goals: 1%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 9%4 goals: 8%5 goals: 19%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 19%8 goals: 8%9 goals: 11%10 goals: 4%11 goals: 4%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%14 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.561%
Total over 6.550%
Total over 7.530%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
MTLJakub Dobes G · last 5 starts: .891 save %, 3.15 GAAstarted
TBAndrei Vasilevskiy G · last 5 starts: .919 save %, 2.02 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MTL·TB
Apr 14 at PHI
last game
Apr 15 vs NYR
4 days
days of rest
3 days
no
back-to-back
no
2
games in last 7 days
2
3rd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 82+ games
MTL·TB
+0.19
rating (0 = average)
+0.37
3.5
goals / game
3.5
3.1
goals allowed / game
2.8
48−34
season record
50−32
24−17
home record
26−15
24−17
away record
24−17
L1
streak
L1
7−3
last 10
5−5
26.3
shots / game
28.1
50.9
faceoff %
47.3
22.1
hits / game
20.0
16.2
blocked shots / game
12.3
4.4
takeaways / game
4.1
13.7
giveaways / game
15.0

Rating Trend

MTL · TB · 163 days
Montreal CanadiensTampa Bay Lightning
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TB 6−4
Apr 9at MTLMTL 2 − 1
Mar 31at TBMTL 4 − 1
Dec 28, 2025at TBTB 5 − 4 SO
Dec 9, 2025at MTLTB 6 − 1
Feb 9, 2025at MTLTB 5 − 3
Jan 21, 2025at MTLMTL 3 − 2
Dec 29, 2024at TBMTL 5 − 2
Apr 4, 2024at MTLTB 7 − 4
Mar 2, 2024at TBTB 4 − 3 SO
Dec 31, 2023at TBTB 4 − 3

MTL · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
Apr 14at PHI2 − 4L
Apr 12at NYI4 − 1W
Apr 11vs CBJ2 − 5L
Apr 9vs TB2 − 1W
Apr 7vs FLA4 − 3W
Apr 5vs NJ0 − 3L
Apr 4at NJ4 − 3W
Apr 2at NYR3 − 2W
Mar 31at TB4 − 1W
Mar 29at CAR3 − 1W

TB · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Apr 15vs NYR2 − 4L
Apr 13vs DET4 − 3W
Apr 11at BOS2 − 1W
Apr 9at MTL1 − 2L
Apr 7at OTT2 − 6L
Apr 6at BUF2 − 4L
Apr 4vs BOS3 − 1W
Apr 2vs PIT6 − 3W
Mar 31vs MTL1 − 4L
Mar 29vs NSH3 − 2W