bayesRatings

Red Wings at Lightning

NHL · Monday, Apr 13 · 6:00 PM CT · Benchmark International Arena · Final DET 3 – TB 4
← NHL / Apr 13

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123OTT
DET10203
TB12014
Team box
DET·TB
30
shots
22
0 of 3
power play
0 of 1
58.9
faceoff %
41.1
12
hits
12
10
blocked shots
15
2
penalty minutes
6
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Nikita KucherovTB113
Alex DeBrincatDET106
Marco KasperDET104
David PerronDET103
Jake GuentzelTB102
Erik CernakTB102
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Cam TalbotDET2218.818
Andrei VasilevskiyTB3027.900

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TB +3
DET +3
P1P2P3OT
largest lead: TB 2 · DET 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DET 37%, TB 63% · Updated Apr 13

Expected margin
TB by 1.1
Expected score
TB 3.7 – 2.5 DET
Expected total
6.2
Red WingsThe matchupLightning
+174Our fair odds−174
2.5Expected goals3.7
−0.03Power rating+0.38
3.0Goals / game3.5
3.1Allowed / game2.8
28.2Shots / game28.1
51.0Faceoff %47.4
18.1Hits / game20.1
41−39Season record49−31
3−7Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DET chance · TB chance
Our model fair36.5%63.5%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DETDetroit Red Wings+17437%————
TBTampa Bay Lightning−17463%————
SpreadTB by 1.1
DETDetroit Red Wings+1.1our margin————
TBTampa Bay Lightning−1.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.2
Over6.2our total————
Under6.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Tampa Bay Lightning by 1.1 expected
Detroit Red Wings by 7 goals: <1%Detroit Red Wings by 6 goals: <1%Detroit Red Wings by 5 goals: 1%Detroit Red Wings by 4 goals: 2%Detroit Red Wings by 3 goals: 5%Detroit Red Wings by 2 goals: 6%Detroit Red Wings by 1 goal: 21%Tampa Bay Lightning by 1 goal: 17%Tampa Bay Lightning by 2 goals: 13%Tampa Bay Lightning by 3 goals: 18%Tampa Bay Lightning by 4 goals: 11%Tampa Bay Lightning by 5 goals: 4%Tampa Bay Lightning by 6 goals: 1%Tampa Bay Lightning by 7 goals: <1%
← DET wins byTB wins by →
Tampa Bay Lightning wins by 2 or more47%
Tampa Bay Lightning wins by 3 or more35%
Detroit Red Wings wins by 2 or more14%
Decided by one goal39%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.2 expected
1 goals: 2%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 11%4 goals: 9%5 goals: 20%6 goals: 12%7 goals: 18%8 goals: 8%9 goals: 10%10 goals: 3%11 goals: 3%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.556%
Total over 6.545%
Total over 7.526%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
DETCam Talbot G · last 5 starts: .856 save %, 3.92 GAAstarted
TBAndrei Vasilevskiy G · last 5 starts: .915 save %, 2.03 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DET·TB
Apr 11 vs NJ
last game
Apr 11 at BOS
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
4
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 80+ games
DET·TB
−0.03
rating (0 = average)
+0.38
3.0
goals / game
3.5
3.1
goals allowed / game
2.8
41−39
season record
49−31
21−20
home record
25−14
20−19
away record
24−17
L1
streak
W1
3−7
last 10
5−5
28.2
shots / game
28.1
51.0
faceoff %
47.4
18.1
hits / game
20.1
16.1
blocked shots / game
12.2
4.4
takeaways / game
4.1
15.0
giveaways / game
14.9

Rating Trend

DET · TB · 158 days
Detroit Red WingsTampa Bay Lightning
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TB 4−6
Mar 12at TBTB 4 − 1
Nov 28, 2025at DETTB 6 − 3
Oct 17, 2025at DETDET 2 − 1 OT
Apr 11, 2025at TBDET 4 − 3 OT
Feb 8, 2025at DETTB 6 − 3
Jan 25, 2025at DETDET 2 − 0
Jan 18, 2025at TBTB 5 − 1
Apr 1, 2024at TBDET 4 − 2
Jan 21, 2024at DETDET 2 − 1
Oct 14, 2023at DETDET 6 − 4

DET · Last 10

3−7 · streak L1
Apr 11vs NJ3 − 5L
Apr 9vs PHI6 − 3W
Apr 7vs CBJ3 − 4L
Apr 5vs MIN4 − 5L
Apr 4at NYR1 − 4L
Apr 2at PHI4 − 2W
Mar 31at PIT1 − 5L
Mar 28vs PHI3 − 5L
Mar 27at BUF5 − 2W
Mar 24vs OTT2 − 3L

TB · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Apr 11at BOS2 − 1W
Apr 9at MTL1 − 2L
Apr 7at OTT2 − 6L
Apr 6at BUF2 − 4L
Apr 4vs BOS3 − 1W
Apr 2vs PIT6 − 3W
Mar 31vs MTL1 − 4L
Mar 29vs NSH3 − 2W
Mar 28vs OTT4 − 2W
Mar 26vs SEA3 − 4L