bayesRatings

Rangers at Lightning

NHL · Wednesday, Apr 15 · 6:00 PM CT · Benchmark International Arena · Final NYR 4 – TB 2
← NHL / Apr 15

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
NYR1304
TB0112
Team box
NYR·TB
21
shots
31
1 of 3
power play
0 of 3
52.7
faceoff %
47.3
23
hits
18
16
blocked shots
11
10
penalty minutes
10
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Tye KartyeNYR213
Mika ZibanejadNYR113
J.T. MillerNYR022
Corey PerryTB104
Gabe PerreaultNYR103
Oliver BjorkstrandTB102
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Dylan GarandNYR3129.935
Brandon HalversonTB2117.810

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TB +3
NYR +3
P1P2P3
largest lead: TB 0 · NYR 3lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NYR 35%, TB 65% · Updated Apr 15

Expected margin
TB by 1.0
Expected score
TB 3.7 – 2.7 NYR
Expected total
6.4
RangersThe matchupLightning
+184Our fair odds−184
2.7Expected goals3.7
−0.11Power rating+0.37
2.9Goals / game3.6
3.1Allowed / game2.8
25.2Shots / game28.1
54.6Faceoff %47.3
25.8Hits / game20.0
33−48Season record50−31
5−5Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NYR chance · TB chance
Our model fair35.2%64.8%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYRNew York Rangers+18435%————
TBTampa Bay Lightning−18465%————
SpreadTB by 1.0
NYRNew York Rangers+1our margin————
TBTampa Bay Lightning−1our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.4
Over6.4our total————
Under6.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Tampa Bay Lightning by 1.0 expected
New York Rangers by 7 goals: <1%New York Rangers by 6 goals: <1%New York Rangers by 5 goals: 1%New York Rangers by 4 goals: 3%New York Rangers by 3 goals: 6%New York Rangers by 2 goals: 6%New York Rangers by 1 goal: 18%Tampa Bay Lightning by 1 goal: 21%Tampa Bay Lightning by 2 goals: 12%Tampa Bay Lightning by 3 goals: 17%Tampa Bay Lightning by 4 goals: 10%Tampa Bay Lightning by 5 goals: 4%Tampa Bay Lightning by 6 goals: 1%Tampa Bay Lightning by 7 goals: <1%
← NYR wins byTB wins by →
Tampa Bay Lightning wins by 2 or more44%
Tampa Bay Lightning wins by 3 or more32%
New York Rangers wins by 2 or more17%
Decided by one goal39%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.4 expected
1 goals: 1%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 10%4 goals: 8%5 goals: 20%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 19%8 goals: 8%9 goals: 10%10 goals: 4%11 goals: 4%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%14 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.559%
Total over 6.548%
Total over 7.529%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
NYRDylan Garand G · last 2 starts: .954 save %, 1.44 GAAstarted
TBBrandon Halverson G · last 1 start: .792 save %, 5.18 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NYR·TB
Apr 13 at FLA
last game
Apr 13 vs DET
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
3rd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 81+ games
NYR·TB
−0.11
rating (0 = average)
+0.37
2.9
goals / game
3.6
3.1
goals allowed / game
2.8
33−48
season record
50−31
14−27
home record
26−14
19−21
away record
24−17
L3
streak
W2
5−5
last 10
6−4
25.2
shots / game
28.1
54.6
faceoff %
47.3
25.8
hits / game
20.0
14.3
blocked shots / game
12.3
4.5
takeaways / game
4.1
15.1
giveaways / game
14.9

Rating Trend

NYR · TB · 160 days
New York RangersTampa Bay Lightning
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TB 5−5
Nov 29, 2025at NYRTB 4 − 1
Nov 12, 2025at TBNYR 7 − 3
Apr 17, 2025at NYRNYR 4 − 0
Apr 7, 2025at NYRTB 5 − 1
Dec 28, 2024at TBTB 6 − 2
Mar 14, 2024at TBTB 6 − 3
Feb 7, 2024at NYRNYR 3 − 1
Dec 30, 2023at TBNYR 5 − 1
Apr 5, 2023at NYRNYR 6 − 3
Dec 29, 2022at TBTB 2 − 1 SO

NYR · Last 10

5−5 · streak L3
Apr 13at FLA2 − 3L
Apr 11at DAL0 − 2L
Apr 8vs BUF3 − 5L
Apr 5vs WSH8 − 1W
Apr 4vs DET4 − 1W
Apr 2vs MTL2 − 3L
Mar 31vs NJ4 − 1W
Mar 29vs FLA3 − 1W
Mar 27vs CHI6 − 1W
Mar 25at TOR3 − 4L

TB · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
Apr 13vs DET4 − 3W
Apr 11at BOS2 − 1W
Apr 9at MTL1 − 2L
Apr 7at OTT2 − 6L
Apr 6at BUF2 − 4L
Apr 4vs BOS3 − 1W
Apr 2vs PIT6 − 3W
Mar 31vs MTL1 − 4L
Mar 29vs NSH3 − 2W
Mar 28vs OTT4 − 2W