bayesRatings

Rangers at Panthers

NHL · Monday, Apr 13 · 6:00 PM CT · Amerant Bank Arena · Final NYR 2 – FLA 3
← NHL / Apr 13

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
NYR1102
FLA2013
Team box
NYR·FLA
27
shots
16
0 of 3
power play
0 of 1
64.3
faceoff %
35.7
28
hits
31
14
blocked shots
12
4
penalty minutes
8
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Cole ReinhardtFLA202
Gabe PerreaultNYR103
Mackie SamoskevichFLA101
Matthew RobertsonNYR101
Tobias BjornfotFLA013
Adam FoxNYR013
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Jonathan QuickNYR1613.812
Daniil TarasovFLA2725.926

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
FLA +3
NYR +3
P1P2P3
largest lead: FLA 2 · NYR 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NYR 45%, FLA 55% · Updated Apr 13

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
FLA 3.1 – 3.1 NYR
Expected total
6.2
RangersThe matchupPanthers
+122Our fair odds−122
3.1Expected goals3.1
−0.06Power rating−0.01
2.9Goals / game3.0
3.1Allowed / game3.4
25.2Shots / game28.1
54.5Faceoff %46.7
25.8Hits / game24.8
33−47Season record38−42
5−5Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NYR chance · FLA chance
Our model fair45.1%54.9%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYRNew York Rangers+12245%————
FLAFlorida Panthers−12255%————
Spreadabout even
NYRNew York Rangers+0.1our margin————
FLAFlorida Panthers−0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.2
Over6.2our total————
Under6.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
New York Rangers by 6 goals: <1%New York Rangers by 5 goals: 2%New York Rangers by 4 goals: 6%New York Rangers by 3 goals: 11%New York Rangers by 2 goals: 10%New York Rangers by 1 goal: 17%Florida Panthers by 1 goal: 26%Florida Panthers by 2 goals: 10%Florida Panthers by 3 goals: 11%Florida Panthers by 4 goals: 6%Florida Panthers by 5 goals: 2%Florida Panthers by 6 goals: <1%
← NYR wins byFLA wins by →
Florida Panthers wins by 2 or more29%
Florida Panthers wins by 3 or more19%
New York Rangers wins by 2 or more29%
Decided by one goal42%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.2 expected
1 goals: 2%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 11%4 goals: 8%5 goals: 21%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 19%8 goals: 8%9 goals: 10%10 goals: 3%11 goals: 3%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.556%
Total over 6.545%
Total over 7.526%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
NYRJonathan Quick G · last 5 starts: .923 save %, 2.63 GAAstarted
FLADaniil Tarasov G · last 5 starts: .857 save %, 3.49 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NYR·FLA
Apr 11 at DAL
last game
Apr 11 at TOR
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
2
games in last 7 days
3
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 80+ games
NYR·FLA
−0.06
rating (0 = average)
−0.01
2.9
goals / game
3.0
3.1
goals allowed / game
3.4
33−47
season record
38−42
14−27
home record
21−18
19−20
away record
17−24
L2
streak
W1
5−5
last 10
3−7
25.2
shots / game
28.1
54.5
faceoff %
46.7
25.8
hits / game
24.8
14.3
blocked shots / game
12.0
4.5
takeaways / game
4.2
15.1
giveaways / game
14.3

Rating Trend

NYR · FLA · 158 days
New York RangersFlorida Panthers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · FLA 5−5
Mar 29at NYRNYR 3 − 1
Jan 2at FLANYR 5 − 1
Apr 14, 2025at FLANYR 5 − 3
Dec 30, 2024at FLAFLA 5 − 3
Oct 24, 2024at NYRFLA 3 − 1
Jun 1, 2024at FLAFLA 2 − 1post
May 30, 2024at NYRFLA 3 − 2post
May 28, 2024at FLAFLA 3 − 2 OTpost
May 26, 2024at FLANYR 5 − 4 OTpost
May 24, 2024at NYRNYR 2 − 1 OTpost

NYR · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
Apr 11at DAL0 − 2L
Apr 8vs BUF3 − 5L
Apr 5vs WSH8 − 1W
Apr 4vs DET4 − 1W
Apr 2vs MTL2 − 3L
Mar 31vs NJ4 − 1W
Mar 29vs FLA3 − 1W
Mar 27vs CHI6 − 1W
Mar 25at TOR3 − 4L
Mar 23vs OTT1 − 2L

FLA · Last 10

3−7 · streak W1
Apr 11at TOR6 − 2W
Apr 9at OTT1 − 5L
Apr 7at MTL3 − 4L
Apr 5at PIT2 − 5L
Apr 4at PIT4 − 9L
Apr 2vs BOS2 − 1W
Mar 31vs OTT6 − 3W
Mar 29at NYR1 − 3L
Mar 28at NYI2 − 5L
Mar 26vs MIN2 − 3L