bayesRatings

Bruins at Sabres

NHL · Tuesday, Apr 28 · 6:30 PM CT · KeyBank Center · Final BOS 2 – BUF 1
← NHL / Apr 28

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123OTT
BOS01012
BUF10001
Team box
BOS·BUF
29
shots
26
0 of 3
power play
1 of 3
59.6
faceoff %
40.4
43
hits
27
23
blocked shots
16
6
penalty minutes
6
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
David PastrnakBOS107
Elias LindholmBOS103
Rasmus DahlinBUF103
Jason ZuckerBUF012
Tage ThompsonBUF012
Hampus LindholmBOS011
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Jeremy SwaymanBOS2625.962
Alex LyonBUF2927.931

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BUF +3
BOS +3
P1P2P3OT
largest lead: BUF 1 · BOS 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was BOS 40%, BUF 60% · Updated Apr 28

Expected margin
BUF by 0.6
Expected score
BUF 3.5 – 3.0 BOS
Expected total
6.5
BruinsThe matchupSabres
+152Our fair odds−152
3.0Expected goals3.5
+0.04Power rating+0.32
3.3Goals / game3.5
3.0Allowed / game2.9
27.0Shots / game28.1
53.1Faceoff %45.9
22.7Hits / game19.2
45−37 · 1−3 postSeason record50−32 · 3−1 post
3−7Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BOS chance · BUF chance
Our model fair39.7%60.3%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
BOSBoston Bruins+15240%————
BUFBuffalo Sabres−15260%————
SpreadBUF by 0.6
BOSBoston Bruins+0.6our margin————
BUFBuffalo Sabres−0.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.5
Over6.5our total————
Under6.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Buffalo Sabres by 0.6 expected
Boston Bruins by 6 goals: <1%Boston Bruins by 5 goals: 1%Boston Bruins by 4 goals: 4%Boston Bruins by 3 goals: 8%Boston Bruins by 2 goals: 8%Boston Bruins by 1 goal: 18%Buffalo Sabres by 1 goal: 23%Buffalo Sabres by 2 goals: 11%Buffalo Sabres by 3 goals: 14%Buffalo Sabres by 4 goals: 8%Buffalo Sabres by 5 goals: 3%Buffalo Sabres by 6 goals: 1%
← BOS wins byBUF wins by →
Buffalo Sabres wins by 2 or more38%
Buffalo Sabres wins by 3 or more27%
Boston Bruins wins by 2 or more22%
Decided by one goal41%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,070 past NHL games.

Total range

6.5 expected
1 goals: 1%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 9%4 goals: 7%5 goals: 19%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 19%8 goals: 8%9 goals: 11%10 goals: 4%11 goals: 4%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%14 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.561%
Total over 6.550%
Total over 7.530%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,070 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
BOSJeremy Swayman G · last 5 starts: .914 save %, 2.75 GAAstarted
BUFAlex Lyon G · last 5 starts: .903 save %, 2.41 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BOS·BUF
Apr 26 vs BUF
last game
Apr 26 at BOS
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 82+ games
BOS·BUF
+0.04
rating (0 = average)
+0.32
3.3
goals / game
3.5
3.0
goals allowed / game
2.9
45−37 · 1−3 post
season record
50−32 · 3−1 post
29−12
home record
26−15
16−25
away record
24−17
L2
streak
W2
3−7
last 10
7−3
27.0
shots / game
28.1
53.1
faceoff %
45.9
22.7
hits / game
19.2
15.1
blocked shots / game
14.2
4.6
takeaways / game
5.0
16.4
giveaways / game
15.5

Rating Trend

BOS · BUF · 172 days
Boston BruinsBuffalo Sabres
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · BUF 6−4
Apr 26at BOSBUF 6 − 1post
Apr 23at BOSBUF 3 − 1post
Apr 21at BUFBOS 4 − 2post
Apr 19at BUFBUF 4 − 3post
Mar 25at BUFBOS 4 − 3 OT
Dec 27, 2025at BUFBUF 4 − 1
Oct 30, 2025at BOSBOS 4 − 3 OT
Oct 11, 2025at BOSBOS 3 − 1
Apr 6, 2025at BUFBUF 6 − 3
Mar 17, 2025at BOSBUF 3 − 2 OT

BOS · Last 10

3−7 · streak L2
Apr 26vs BUF1 − 6L
Apr 23vs BUF1 − 3L
Apr 21at BUF4 − 2W
Apr 19at BUF3 − 4L
Apr 14vs NJ4 − 0W
Apr 12at CBJ3 − 2W
Apr 11vs TB1 − 2L
Apr 7at CAR5 − 6L
Apr 5at PHI1 − 2L
Apr 4at TB1 − 3L

BUF · Last 10

7−3 · streak W2
Apr 26at BOS6 − 1W
Apr 23at BOS3 − 1W
Apr 21vs BOS2 − 4L
Apr 19vs BOS4 − 3W
Apr 15vs DAL3 − 4L
Apr 13at CHI5 − 1W
Apr 9vs CBJ5 − 0W
Apr 8at NYR5 − 3W
Apr 6vs TB4 − 2W
Apr 4at WSH2 − 6L