bayesRatings

Sabres at Bruins

NHL · Thursday, Apr 23 · 6:00 PM CT · TD Garden · Final BUF 3 – BOS 1
← NHL / Apr 23

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
BUF0123
BOS0101
Team box
BUF·BOS
30
shots
25
0 of 5
power play
0 of 4
51.0
faceoff %
49.0
38
hits
35
9
blocked shots
15
10
penalty minutes
12
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Bowen ByramBUF112
Noah OstlundBUF112
Tanner JeannotBOS102
Alex TuchBUF102
Jack QuinnBUF015
Charlie McAvoyBOS013
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Alex LyonBUF2524.960
Jeremy SwaymanBOS2927.931

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BOS +3
BUF +3
P1P2P3
largest lead: BOS 1 · BUF 2lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was BUF 52%, BOS 48% · Updated Apr 23

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
BUF 3.4 – 3.1 BOS
Expected total
6.5
SabresThe matchupBruins
−109Our fair odds+109
3.4Expected goals3.1
+0.30Power rating+0.06
3.5Goals / game3.3
2.9Allowed / game3.0
28.1Shots / game27.0
45.9Faceoff %53.1
19.2Hits / game22.7
50−32 · 1−1 postSeason record45−37 · 1−1 post
6−4Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BUF chance · BOS chance
Our model fair52.2%47.8%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
BUFBuffalo Sabres−10952%————
BOSBoston Bruins+10948%————
Spreadabout even
BUFBuffalo Sabres−0.3our margin————
BOSBoston Bruins+0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.5
Over6.5our total————
Under6.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Buffalo Sabres by 6 goals: 1%Buffalo Sabres by 5 goals: 3%Buffalo Sabres by 4 goals: 7%Buffalo Sabres by 3 goals: 13%Buffalo Sabres by 2 goals: 11%Buffalo Sabres by 1 goal: 18%Boston Bruins by 1 goal: 23%Boston Bruins by 2 goals: 8%Boston Bruins by 3 goals: 9%Boston Bruins by 4 goals: 5%Boston Bruins by 5 goals: 2%Boston Bruins by 6 goals: <1%
← BUF wins byBOS wins by →
Buffalo Sabres wins by 2 or more35%
Buffalo Sabres wins by 3 or more24%
Boston Bruins wins by 2 or more24%
Decided by one goal41%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.5 expected
1 goals: 1%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 9%4 goals: 7%5 goals: 19%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 19%8 goals: 8%9 goals: 11%10 goals: 4%11 goals: 4%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%14 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.561%
Total over 6.550%
Total over 7.530%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
BUFAlex Lyon G · last 5 starts: .867 save %, 2.96 GAAstarted
BOSJeremy Swayman G · last 5 starts: .935 save %, 1.82 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BUF·BOS
Apr 21 vs BOS
last game
Apr 21 at BUF
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
2
games in last 7 days
2
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 82+ games
BUF·BOS
+0.30
rating (0 = average)
+0.06
3.5
goals / game
3.3
2.9
goals allowed / game
3.0
50−32 · 1−1 post
season record
45−37 · 1−1 post
26−15
home record
29−12
24−17
away record
16−25
L1
streak
W1
6−4
last 10
4−6
28.1
shots / game
27.0
45.9
faceoff %
53.1
19.2
hits / game
22.7
14.2
blocked shots / game
15.1
5.0
takeaways / game
4.6
15.5
giveaways / game
16.4

Rating Trend

BUF · BOS · 167 days
Buffalo SabresBoston Bruins
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · BOS 5−5
Apr 21at BUFBOS 4 − 2post
Apr 19at BUFBUF 4 − 3post
Mar 25at BUFBOS 4 − 3 OT
Dec 27, 2025at BUFBUF 4 − 1
Oct 30, 2025at BOSBOS 4 − 3 OT
Oct 11, 2025at BOSBOS 3 − 1
Apr 6, 2025at BUFBUF 6 − 3
Mar 17, 2025at BOSBUF 3 − 2 OT
Jan 28, 2025at BUFBUF 7 − 2
Dec 21, 2024at BOSBOS 3 − 1

BUF · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Apr 21vs BOS2 − 4L
Apr 19vs BOS4 − 3W
Apr 15vs DAL3 − 4L
Apr 13at CHI5 − 1W
Apr 9vs CBJ5 − 0W
Apr 8at NYR5 − 3W
Apr 6vs TB4 − 2W
Apr 4at WSH2 − 6L
Apr 2at OTT1 − 4L
Mar 31vs NYI4 − 3W

BOS · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Apr 21at BUF4 − 2W
Apr 19at BUF3 − 4L
Apr 14vs NJ4 − 0W
Apr 12at CBJ3 − 2W
Apr 11vs TB1 − 2L
Apr 7at CAR5 − 6L
Apr 5at PHI1 − 2L
Apr 4at TB1 − 3L
Apr 2at FLA1 − 2L
Mar 31vs DAL6 − 3W