bayesRatings

Lightning at Canadiens

NHL · Friday, May 1 · 6:00 PM CT · Bell Centre · Final TB 1 – MTL 0
← NHL / May 1

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123OTT
TB00011
MTL00000
Team box
TB·MTL
33
shots
30
0 of 3
power play
0 of 3
48.9
faceoff %
51.1
37
hits
50
13
blocked shots
22
8
penalty minutes
8
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Gage GoncalvesTB102
Brandon HagelTB013
Dominic JamesTB013
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Andrei VasilevskiyTB30301.000
Jakub DobesMTL3332.970

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MTL +3
TB +3
P1P2P3OT
largest lead: MTL 0 · TB 1lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TB 51%, MTL 49% · Updated May 1

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
TB 3.4 – 3.1 MTL
Expected total
6.5
LightningThe matchupCanadiens
−103Our fair odds+103
3.4Expected goals3.1
+0.34Power rating+0.17
3.5Goals / game3.5
2.8Allowed / game3.1
28.1Shots / game26.3
47.3Faceoff %50.9
20.0Hits / game22.1
50−32 · 2−3 postSeason record48−34 · 3−2 post
4−6Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TB chance · MTL chance
Our model fair50.7%49.3%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TBTampa Bay Lightning−10351%————
MTLMontreal Canadiens+10349%————
Spreadabout even
TBTampa Bay Lightning−0.3our margin————
MTLMontreal Canadiens+0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.5
Over6.5our total————
Under6.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Tampa Bay Lightning by 6 goals: 1%Tampa Bay Lightning by 5 goals: 3%Tampa Bay Lightning by 4 goals: 7%Tampa Bay Lightning by 3 goals: 13%Tampa Bay Lightning by 2 goals: 11%Tampa Bay Lightning by 1 goal: 16%Montreal Canadiens by 1 goal: 25%Montreal Canadiens by 2 goals: 8%Montreal Canadiens by 3 goals: 9%Montreal Canadiens by 4 goals: 4%Montreal Canadiens by 5 goals: 1%Montreal Canadiens by 6 goals: <1%
← TB wins byMTL wins by →
Tampa Bay Lightning wins by 2 or more35%
Tampa Bay Lightning wins by 3 or more24%
Montreal Canadiens wins by 2 or more24%
Decided by one goal41%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.5 expected
1 goals: 1%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 9%4 goals: 7%5 goals: 19%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 19%8 goals: 8%9 goals: 11%10 goals: 4%11 goals: 4%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%14 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.561%
Total over 6.550%
Total over 7.530%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
TBAndrei Vasilevskiy G · last 5 starts: .880 save %, 2.68 GAAstarted
MTLJakub Dobes G · last 5 starts: .903 save %, 2.49 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TB·MTL
Apr 29 vs MTL
last game
Apr 29 at TB
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 82+ games
TB·MTL
+0.34
rating (0 = average)
+0.17
3.5
goals / game
3.5
2.8
goals allowed / game
3.1
50−32 · 2−3 post
season record
48−34 · 3−2 post
26−15
home record
24−17
24−17
away record
24−17
L1
streak
W1
4−6
last 10
6−4
28.1
shots / game
26.3
47.3
faceoff %
50.9
20.0
hits / game
22.1
12.3
blocked shots / game
16.2
4.1
takeaways / game
4.4
15.0
giveaways / game
13.7

Rating Trend

TB · MTL · 175 days
Tampa Bay LightningMontreal Canadiens
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MTL 5−5
Apr 29at TBMTL 3 − 2post
Apr 26at MTLTB 3 − 2post
Apr 24at MTLMTL 3 − 2 OTpost
Apr 21at TBTB 3 − 2 OTpost
Apr 19at TBMTL 4 − 3 OTpost
Apr 9at MTLMTL 2 − 1
Mar 31at TBMTL 4 − 1
Dec 28, 2025at TBTB 5 − 4 SO
Dec 9, 2025at MTLTB 6 − 1
Feb 9, 2025at MTLTB 5 − 3

TB · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Apr 29vs MTL2 − 3L
Apr 26at MTL3 − 2W
Apr 24at MTL2 − 3L
Apr 21vs MTL3 − 2W
Apr 19vs MTL3 − 4L
Apr 15vs NYR2 − 4L
Apr 13vs DET4 − 3W
Apr 11at BOS2 − 1W
Apr 9at MTL1 − 2L
Apr 7at OTT2 − 6L

MTL · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Apr 29at TB3 − 2W
Apr 26vs TB2 − 3L
Apr 24vs TB3 − 2W
Apr 21at TB2 − 3L
Apr 19at TB4 − 3W
Apr 14at PHI2 − 4L
Apr 12at NYI4 − 1W
Apr 11vs CBJ2 − 5L
Apr 9vs TB2 − 1W
Apr 7vs FLA4 − 3W