bayesRatings

Canadiens at Lightning

NHL · Sunday, May 3 · 5:00 PM CT · Benchmark International Arena · Final MTL 2 – TB 1
← NHL / May 3

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
MTL1012
TB0101
Team box
MTL·TB
9
shots
29
0 of 2
power play
1 of 3
53.3
faceoff %
46.7
43
hits
30
13
blocked shots
15
6
penalty minutes
4
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Kaiden GuhleMTL021
Dominic JamesTB104
Nick SuzukiMTL103
Alex NewhookMTL101
Gage GoncalvesTB013
Charle-Edouard D'AstousTB011
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Jakub DobesMTL2928.966
Andrei VasilevskiyTB97.778

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TB +3
MTL +3
P1P2P3
largest lead: TB 0 · MTL 1lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MTL 42%, TB 58% · Updated May 3

Expected margin
TB by 0.5
Expected score
TB 3.5 – 3.0 MTL
Expected total
6.4
CanadiensThe matchupLightning
+136Our fair odds−136
3.0Expected goals3.5
+0.17Power rating+0.34
3.5Goals / game3.5
3.1Allowed / game2.8
26.3Shots / game28.1
50.9Faceoff %47.3
22.1Hits / game20.0
48−34 · 3−3 postSeason record50−32 · 3−3 post
5−5Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MTL chance · TB chance
Our model fair42.4%57.6%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MTLMontreal Canadiens+13642%————
TBTampa Bay Lightning−13658%————
SpreadTB by 0.5
MTLMontreal Canadiens+0.5our margin————
TBTampa Bay Lightning−0.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.4
Over6.4our total————
Under6.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Tampa Bay Lightning by 0.5 expected
Montreal Canadiens by 6 goals: <1%Montreal Canadiens by 5 goals: 1%Montreal Canadiens by 4 goals: 4%Montreal Canadiens by 3 goals: 9%Montreal Canadiens by 2 goals: 8%Montreal Canadiens by 1 goal: 20%Tampa Bay Lightning by 1 goal: 21%Tampa Bay Lightning by 2 goals: 11%Tampa Bay Lightning by 3 goals: 14%Tampa Bay Lightning by 4 goals: 8%Tampa Bay Lightning by 5 goals: 3%Tampa Bay Lightning by 6 goals: 1%
← MTL wins byTB wins by →
Tampa Bay Lightning wins by 2 or more36%
Tampa Bay Lightning wins by 3 or more25%
Montreal Canadiens wins by 2 or more22%
Decided by one goal41%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.4 expected
1 goals: 1%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 10%4 goals: 8%5 goals: 20%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 19%8 goals: 8%9 goals: 11%10 goals: 4%11 goals: 4%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%14 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.559%
Total over 6.548%
Total over 7.529%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
MTLJakub Dobes G · last 5 starts: .924 save %, 2.05 GAAstarted
TBAndrei Vasilevskiy G · last 5 starts: .922 save %, 1.87 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MTL·TB
May 1 vs TB
last game
May 1 at MTL
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 82+ games
MTL·TB
+0.17
rating (0 = average)
+0.34
3.5
goals / game
3.5
3.1
goals allowed / game
2.8
48−34 · 3−3 post
season record
50−32 · 3−3 post
24−17
home record
26−15
24−17
away record
24−17
L1
streak
W1
5−5
last 10
5−5
26.3
shots / game
28.1
50.9
faceoff %
47.3
22.1
hits / game
20.0
16.2
blocked shots / game
12.3
4.4
takeaways / game
4.1
13.7
giveaways / game
15.0

Rating Trend

MTL · TB · 177 days
Montreal CanadiensTampa Bay Lightning
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TB 5−5
May 1at MTLTB 1 − 0 OTpost
Apr 29at TBMTL 3 − 2post
Apr 26at MTLTB 3 − 2post
Apr 24at MTLMTL 3 − 2 OTpost
Apr 21at TBTB 3 − 2 OTpost
Apr 19at TBMTL 4 − 3 OTpost
Apr 9at MTLMTL 2 − 1
Mar 31at TBMTL 4 − 1
Dec 28, 2025at TBTB 5 − 4 SO
Dec 9, 2025at MTLTB 6 − 1

MTL · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
May 1vs TB0 − 1L
Apr 29at TB3 − 2W
Apr 26vs TB2 − 3L
Apr 24vs TB3 − 2W
Apr 21at TB2 − 3L
Apr 19at TB4 − 3W
Apr 14at PHI2 − 4L
Apr 12at NYI4 − 1W
Apr 11vs CBJ2 − 5L
Apr 9vs TB2 − 1W

TB · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
May 1at MTL1 − 0W
Apr 29vs MTL2 − 3L
Apr 26at MTL3 − 2W
Apr 24at MTL2 − 3L
Apr 21vs MTL3 − 2W
Apr 19vs MTL3 − 4L
Apr 15vs NYR2 − 4L
Apr 13vs DET4 − 3W
Apr 11at BOS2 − 1W
Apr 9at MTL1 − 2L