bayesRatings

Canadiens at Sabres

NHL · Thursday, May 14 · 6:00 PM CT · KeyBank Center · Final MTL 6 – BUF 3
← NHL / May 14

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
MTL2316
BUF3003
Team box
MTL·BUF
26
shots
36
2 of 2
power play
0 of 2
55.9
faceoff %
44.1
19
hits
22
25
blocked shots
11
16
penalty minutes
16
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Nick SuzukiMTL121
Juraj SlafkovskyMTL032
Ivan DemidovMTL115
Lane HutsonMTL021
Phillip DanaultMTL020
Josh DoanBUF103
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Jakub DobesMTL3633.917
Ukko-Pekka LuukkonenBUF2318.783
Alex LyonBUF32.667

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BUF +3
MTL +3
P1P2P3
largest lead: BUF 1 · MTL 3lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MTL 45%, BUF 55% · Updated May 14

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
BUF 3.4 – 3.1 MTL
Expected total
6.5
CanadiensThe matchupSabres
+121Our fair odds−121
3.1Expected goals3.4
+0.23Power rating+0.29
3.5Goals / game3.5
3.1Allowed / game2.9
26.3Shots / game28.1
50.9Faceoff %45.9
22.1Hits / game19.2
48−34 · 6−5 postSeason record50−32 · 6−4 post
5−5Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MTL chance · BUF chance
Our model fair45.2%54.8%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MTLMontreal Canadiens+12145%————
BUFBuffalo Sabres−12155%————
Spreadabout even
MTLMontreal Canadiens+0.3our margin————
BUFBuffalo Sabres−0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.5
Over6.5our total————
Under6.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Montreal Canadiens by 6 goals: <1%Montreal Canadiens by 5 goals: 2%Montreal Canadiens by 4 goals: 5%Montreal Canadiens by 3 goals: 10%Montreal Canadiens by 2 goals: 9%Montreal Canadiens by 1 goal: 20%Buffalo Sabres by 1 goal: 21%Buffalo Sabres by 2 goals: 10%Buffalo Sabres by 3 goals: 13%Buffalo Sabres by 4 goals: 7%Buffalo Sabres by 5 goals: 3%Buffalo Sabres by 6 goals: 1%
← MTL wins byBUF wins by →
Buffalo Sabres wins by 2 or more34%
Buffalo Sabres wins by 3 or more23%
Montreal Canadiens wins by 2 or more25%
Decided by one goal41%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.5 expected
1 goals: 1%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 9%4 goals: 7%5 goals: 19%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 19%8 goals: 8%9 goals: 11%10 goals: 4%11 goals: 4%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%14 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.561%
Total over 6.550%
Total over 7.530%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
MTLJakub Dobes G · last 5 starts: .911 save %, 2.25 GAAstarted
BUFUkko-Pekka Luukkonen G · last 5 starts: .879 save %, 2.78 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MTL·BUF
May 12 vs BUF
last game
May 12 at MTL
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 82+ games
MTL·BUF
+0.23
rating (0 = average)
+0.29
3.5
goals / game
3.5
3.1
goals allowed / game
2.9
48−34 · 6−5 post
season record
50−32 · 6−4 post
24−17
home record
26−15
24−17
away record
24−17
L1
streak
W1
5−5
last 10
6−4
26.3
shots / game
28.1
50.9
faceoff %
45.9
22.1
hits / game
19.2
16.2
blocked shots / game
14.2
4.4
takeaways / game
5.0
13.7
giveaways / game
15.5

Rating Trend

MTL · BUF · 188 days
Montreal CanadiensBuffalo Sabres
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · BUF 4−6
May 12at MTLBUF 3 − 2post
May 10at MTLMTL 6 − 2post
May 8at BUFMTL 5 − 1post
May 6at BUFBUF 4 − 2post
Jan 31at BUFMTL 4 − 2
Jan 22at MTLBUF 4 − 2
Jan 15at BUFBUF 5 − 3
Oct 20, 2025at MTLMTL 4 − 2
Mar 3, 2025at MTLMTL 4 − 3 OT
Mar 1, 2025at BUFMTL 4 − 2

MTL · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
May 12vs BUF2 − 3L
May 10vs BUF6 − 2W
May 8at BUF5 − 1W
May 6at BUF2 − 4L
May 3at TB2 − 1W
May 1vs TB0 − 1L
Apr 29at TB3 − 2W
Apr 26vs TB2 − 3L
Apr 24vs TB3 − 2W
Apr 21at TB2 − 3L

BUF · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
May 12at MTL3 − 2W
May 10at MTL2 − 6L
May 8vs MTL1 − 5L
May 6vs MTL4 − 2W
May 1at BOS4 − 1W
Apr 28vs BOS1 − 2L
Apr 26at BOS6 − 1W
Apr 23at BOS3 − 1W
Apr 21vs BOS2 − 4L
Apr 19vs BOS4 − 3W