bayesRatings

Sabres at Canadiens

NHL · Tuesday, May 12 · 6:00 PM CT · Bell Centre · Final BUF 3 – MTL 2
← NHL / May 12

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
BUF1113
MTL2002
Team box
BUF·MTL
22
shots
31
2 of 4
power play
1 of 7
52.5
faceoff %
47.5
23
hits
26
27
blocked shots
6
16
penalty minutes
10
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Tage ThompsonBUF112
Josh DoanBUF020
Cole CaufieldMTL105
Alex NewhookMTL105
Mattias SamuelssonBUF102
Zach BensonBUF101
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Ukko-Pekka LuukkonenBUF3129.935
Jakub DobesMTL2219.864

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MTL +3
BUF +3
P1P2P3
largest lead: MTL 1 · BUF 1lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was BUF 48%, MTL 52% · Updated May 12

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
MTL 3.2 – 3.2 BUF
Expected total
6.5
SabresThe matchupCanadiens
+109Our fair odds−109
3.2Expected goals3.2
+0.29Power rating+0.23
3.5Goals / game3.5
2.9Allowed / game3.1
28.1Shots / game26.3
45.9Faceoff %50.9
19.2Hits / game22.1
50−32 · 5−4 postSeason record48−34 · 6−4 post
5−5Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BUF chance · MTL chance
Our model fair47.8%52.2%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
BUFBuffalo Sabres+10948%————
MTLMontreal Canadiens−10952%————
Spreadabout even
BUFBuffalo SabresPKour margin————
MTLMontreal CanadiensPKour margin————
Totalwe expect 6.5
Over6.5our total————
Under6.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Buffalo Sabres by 6 goals: <1%Buffalo Sabres by 5 goals: 2%Buffalo Sabres by 4 goals: 6%Buffalo Sabres by 3 goals: 12%Buffalo Sabres by 2 goals: 10%Buffalo Sabres by 1 goal: 18%Montreal Canadiens by 1 goal: 23%Montreal Canadiens by 2 goals: 9%Montreal Canadiens by 3 goals: 11%Montreal Canadiens by 4 goals: 6%Montreal Canadiens by 5 goals: 2%Montreal Canadiens by 6 goals: <1%
← BUF wins byMTL wins by →
Montreal Canadiens wins by 2 or more29%
Montreal Canadiens wins by 3 or more19%
Buffalo Sabres wins by 2 or more30%
Decided by one goal41%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.5 expected
1 goals: 1%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 9%4 goals: 7%5 goals: 20%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 19%8 goals: 8%9 goals: 11%10 goals: 4%11 goals: 4%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%14 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.561%
Total over 6.550%
Total over 7.530%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
BUFUkko-Pekka Luukkonen G · last 5 starts: .871 save %, 2.78 GAAstarted
MTLJakub Dobes G · last 5 starts: .933 save %, 1.77 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BUF·MTL
May 10 at MTL
last game
May 10 vs BUF
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 82+ games
BUF·MTL
+0.29
rating (0 = average)
+0.23
3.5
goals / game
3.5
2.9
goals allowed / game
3.1
50−32 · 5−4 post
season record
48−34 · 6−4 post
26−15
home record
24−17
24−17
away record
24−17
L2
streak
W2
5−5
last 10
6−4
28.1
shots / game
26.3
45.9
faceoff %
50.9
19.2
hits / game
22.1
14.2
blocked shots / game
16.2
5.0
takeaways / game
4.4
15.5
giveaways / game
13.7

Rating Trend

BUF · MTL · 186 days
Buffalo SabresMontreal Canadiens
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MTL 7−3
May 10at MTLMTL 6 − 2post
May 8at BUFMTL 5 − 1post
May 6at BUFBUF 4 − 2post
Jan 31at BUFMTL 4 − 2
Jan 22at MTLBUF 4 − 2
Jan 15at BUFBUF 5 − 3
Oct 20, 2025at MTLMTL 4 − 2
Mar 3, 2025at MTLMTL 4 − 3 OT
Mar 1, 2025at BUFMTL 4 − 2
Dec 17, 2024at MTLMTL 6 − 1

BUF · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
May 10at MTL2 − 6L
May 8vs MTL1 − 5L
May 6vs MTL4 − 2W
May 1at BOS4 − 1W
Apr 28vs BOS1 − 2L
Apr 26at BOS6 − 1W
Apr 23at BOS3 − 1W
Apr 21vs BOS2 − 4L
Apr 19vs BOS4 − 3W
Apr 15vs DAL3 − 4L

MTL · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
May 10vs BUF6 − 2W
May 8at BUF5 − 1W
May 6at BUF2 − 4L
May 3at TB2 − 1W
May 1vs TB0 − 1L
Apr 29at TB3 − 2W
Apr 26vs TB2 − 3L
Apr 24vs TB3 − 2W
Apr 21at TB2 − 3L
Apr 19at TB4 − 3W