bayesRatings

Canadiens at Hurricanes

NHL · Saturday, May 23 · 6:00 PM CT · Lenovo Center · Final MTL 2 – CAR 3
← NHL / May 23

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123OTT
MTL10102
CAR11013
Team box
MTL·CAR
12
shots
26
0 of 2
power play
0 of 3
52.4
faceoff %
47.6
16
hits
46
19
blocked shots
20
6
penalty minutes
4
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Nikolaj EhlersCAR205
Josh AndersonMTL202
Jalen ChatfieldCAR022
Mark JankowskiCAR021
Phillip DanaultMTL020
Eric RobinsonCAR102
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Jakub DobesMTL2623.885
Frederik AndersenCAR1210.833

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CAR +3
MTL +3
P1P2P3OT
largest lead: CAR 1 · MTL 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MTL 40%, CAR 60% · Updated May 23

Expected margin
CAR by 0.6
Expected score
CAR 3.4 – 2.9 MTL
Expected total
6.3
CanadiensThe matchupHurricanes
+149Our fair odds−149
2.9Expected goals3.4
+0.22Power rating+0.49
3.5Goals / game3.6
3.1Allowed / game2.9
26.3Shots / game32.2
50.9Faceoff %50.3
22.1Hits / game20.0
48−34 · 9−6 postSeason record53−29 · 8−1 post
6−4Last 109−1

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MTL chance · CAR chance
Our model fair40.1%59.9%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MTLMontreal Canadiens+14940%————
CARCarolina Hurricanes−14960%————
SpreadCAR by 0.6
MTLMontreal Canadiens+0.6our margin————
CARCarolina Hurricanes−0.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.3
Over6.3our total————
Under6.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Carolina Hurricanes by 0.6 expected
Montreal Canadiens by 6 goals: <1%Montreal Canadiens by 5 goals: 1%Montreal Canadiens by 4 goals: 4%Montreal Canadiens by 3 goals: 8%Montreal Canadiens by 2 goals: 8%Montreal Canadiens by 1 goal: 19%Carolina Hurricanes by 1 goal: 22%Carolina Hurricanes by 2 goals: 11%Carolina Hurricanes by 3 goals: 14%Carolina Hurricanes by 4 goals: 8%Carolina Hurricanes by 5 goals: 3%Carolina Hurricanes by 6 goals: 1%
← MTL wins byCAR wins by →
Carolina Hurricanes wins by 2 or more38%
Carolina Hurricanes wins by 3 or more26%
Montreal Canadiens wins by 2 or more21%
Decided by one goal41%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.3 expected
1 goals: 2%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 10%4 goals: 8%5 goals: 20%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 19%8 goals: 8%9 goals: 10%10 goals: 3%11 goals: 4%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.558%
Total over 6.546%
Total over 7.528%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
MTLJakub Dobes G · last 5 starts: .899 save %, 3.21 GAAstarted
CARFrederik Andersen G · last 5 starts: .911 save %, 1.87 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MTL·CAR
May 21 at CAR
last game
May 21 vs MTL
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
1
3rd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 82+ games
MTL·CAR
+0.22
rating (0 = average)
+0.49
3.5
goals / game
3.6
3.1
goals allowed / game
2.9
48−34 · 9−6 post
season record
53−29 · 8−1 post
24−17
home record
29−12
24−17
away record
24−17
W2
streak
L1
6−4
last 10
9−1
26.3
shots / game
32.2
50.9
faceoff %
50.3
22.1
hits / game
20.0
16.2
blocked shots / game
11.3
4.4
takeaways / game
5.7
13.7
giveaways / game
16.2

Rating Trend

MTL · CAR · 194 days
Montreal CanadiensCarolina Hurricanes
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CAR 4−6
May 21at CARMTL 6 − 2post
Mar 29at CARMTL 3 − 1
Mar 24at MTLMTL 5 − 2
Jan 1at CARMTL 7 − 5
Apr 16, 2025at MTLMTL 4 − 2
Mar 28, 2025at CARCAR 4 − 1
Feb 25, 2025at MTLMTL 4 − 0
Mar 30, 2024at MTLCAR 3 − 0
Mar 7, 2024at CARCAR 4 − 1
Dec 28, 2023at CARCAR 5 − 3

MTL · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
May 21at CAR6 − 2W
May 18at BUF3 − 2W
May 16vs BUF3 − 8L
May 14at BUF6 − 3W
May 12vs BUF2 − 3L
May 10vs BUF6 − 2W
May 8at BUF5 − 1W
May 6at BUF2 − 4L
May 3at TB2 − 1W
May 1vs TB0 − 1L

CAR · Last 10

9−1 · streak L1
May 21vs MTL2 − 6L
May 9at PHI3 − 2W
May 7at PHI4 − 1W
May 4vs PHI3 − 2W
May 2vs PHI3 − 0W
Apr 25at OTT4 − 2W
Apr 23at OTT2 − 1W
Apr 20vs OTT3 − 2W
Apr 18vs OTT2 − 0W
Apr 14at NYI2 − 1W