bayesRatings

Guardians at Dodgers

MLB · Monday, Mar 30 · 9:10 PM CT · Dodger Stadium · Final CLE 4 – LAD 2
← MLB / Mar 30

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CLE001000300490
LAD000000002290
Team box
CLE·LAD
9
hits
9
0
home runs
0
3
walks
0
8
strikeouts
6
137
pitches thrown
154
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Steven KwanCLE3-5101
Daniel SchneemannCLE1-4002
Austin HedgesCLE2-4200
Angel MartinezCLE2-3100
Mookie BettsLAD1-4101
Andy PagesLAD2-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Parker Messick (W)CLE6.05005
Roki Sasaki (L)LAD4.04124

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LAD +4
CLE +4
123456789
largest lead: LAD 0 · CLE 4lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CLE 42%, LAD 58% · Updated Mar 30

Expected margin
LAD by 1.0
Expected score
LAD 4.7 – 3.7 CLE
Expected total
8.4
GuardiansThe matchupDodgers
+136Our fair odds−136
3.7Expected runs4.7
+0.06Power rating+0.28
3.2Runs / game5.3
5.5Allowed / game2.7
6.5Hits / game6.7
1.00Home runs / game1.67
2.2Walks drawn / game3.7
2−2Season record3−0
5−5Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CLE chance · LAD chance
Our model fair42.4%57.6%
Kalshi39.6%64.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 9:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CLECleveland Guardians+13642%+15239.6%———
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−13658%−18364.6%———
SpreadLAD by 1.0
CLECleveland Guardians+1our margin————
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−1our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.4
Over8.4our total————
Under8.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Dodgers by 1.0 expected
Cleveland Guardians by 14 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 13 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 12 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 11 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 10 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 9 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 8 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 7 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 6 runs: 2%Cleveland Guardians by 5 runs: 3%Cleveland Guardians by 4 runs: 4%Cleveland Guardians by 3 runs: 6%Cleveland Guardians by 2 runs: 9%Cleveland Guardians by 1 run: 15%Los Angeles Dodgers by 1 run: 13%Los Angeles Dodgers by 2 runs: 11%Los Angeles Dodgers by 3 runs: 8%Los Angeles Dodgers by 4 runs: 7%Los Angeles Dodgers by 5 runs: 5%Los Angeles Dodgers by 6 runs: 4%Los Angeles Dodgers by 7 runs: 3%Los Angeles Dodgers by 8 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 9 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 10 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 11 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 12 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 14 runs: <1%
← CLE wins byLAD wins by →
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 2 or more44%
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 3 or more33%
Cleveland Guardians wins by 2 or more27%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.4 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.565%
Total over 8.545%
Total over 10.528%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CLEParker Messick SP · last 3 starts: 16.1 IP, 3.86 ERA, 20 Kstarted
LADRoki Sasaki SP · last 3 starts: 14.2 IP, 6.75 ERA, 8 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CLE·LAD
Mar 29 at SEA
last game
Mar 28 vs ARI
0 days
days of rest
1 day
4
games in last 7 days
3
5th straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 3+ games
CLE·LAD
+0.06
rating (0 = average)
+0.28
3.2
runs / game
5.3
5.5
runs allowed / game
2.7
2−2
season record
3−0
0−0
home record
3−0
2−2
away record
0−0
L1
streak
W3
5−5
last 10
7−3
6.5
hits / game
6.7
1.00
home runs / game
1.67
2.2
walks drawn / game
3.7
11.8
batter strikeouts / game
5.0
11.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.0
0.25
errors / game
0.00

Rating Trend

CLE · LAD · 5 days
Cleveland GuardiansLos Angeles Dodgers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · LAD 6−4
May 28, 2025at CLECLE 7 − 4
May 27, 2025at CLELAD 9 − 5
May 26, 2025at CLELAD 7 − 2
Sep 8, 2024at LADLAD 4 − 0
Sep 7, 2024at LADLAD 7 − 2
Sep 6, 2024at LADCLE 3 − 1
Aug 24, 2023at CLELAD 9 − 3
Aug 23, 2023at CLELAD 6 − 1
Aug 22, 2023at CLECLE 8 − 3
Jun 19, 2022at LADCLE 5 − 3

CLE · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Mar 29at SEA0 − 8L
Mar 28at SEA6 − 5W
Mar 27at SEA1 − 5L
Mar 26at SEA6 − 4W
Oct 2, 2025vs DET3 − 6L
Oct 1, 2025vs DET6 − 1W
Sep 30, 2025vs DET1 − 2L
Sep 28, 2025vs TEX9 − 8W
Sep 27, 2025vs TEX3 − 2W
Sep 26, 2025vs TEX3 − 7L

LAD · Last 10

7−3 · streak W5
Mar 28vs ARI3 − 2W
Mar 27vs ARI5 − 4W
Mar 26vs ARI8 − 2W
Nov 1, 2025at TOR5 − 4W
Oct 31, 2025at TOR3 − 1W
Oct 29, 2025vs TOR1 − 6L
Oct 28, 2025vs TOR2 − 6L
Oct 27, 2025vs TOR6 − 5W
Oct 25, 2025at TOR5 − 1W
Oct 24, 2025at TOR4 − 11L