bayesRatings

Mets at Cardinals

MLB · Monday, Mar 30 · 6:45 PM CT · Busch Stadium · Final NYM 4 – STL 2
← MLB / Mar 30

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
NYM1000120004100
STL100001000250
Team box
NYM·STL
10
hits
5
0
home runs
1
5
walks
3
4
strikeouts
9
133
pitches thrown
136
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Nolan GormanSTL1-4111
Bo BichetteNYM1-5002
Alec BurlesonSTL2-4001
Jorge PolancoNYM2-5000
Juan SotoNYM1-3001
Jared YoungNYM1-4101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Clay Holmes (W)NYM5.24235
Devin Williams (S)NYM1.00001
Kyle Leahy (L)STL5.08421

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
STL +3
NYM +3
123456789
largest lead: STL 0 · NYM 3lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NYM 51%, STL 49% · Updated Mar 30

Expected margin
NYM by 0.7
Expected score
NYM 5.0 – 4.3 STL
Expected total
9.3
MetsThe matchupCardinals
−103Our fair odds+103
5.0Expected runs4.3
+0.07Power rating−0.05
6.0Runs / game7.3
4.3Allowed / game7.7
8.7Hits / game10.3
1.00Home runs / game1.67
5.3Walks drawn / game2.0
2−1Season record2−1
5−5Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NYM chance · STL chance
Our model fair50.6%49.4%
Kalshi60.7%44.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:45 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYMNew York Mets−10351%−15460.7%———
STLSt. Louis Cardinals+10349%+12444.7%———
SpreadNYM by 0.7
NYMNew York Mets−0.7our margin————
STLSt. Louis Cardinals+0.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.3
Over9.3our total————
Under9.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New York Mets by 0.7 expected
New York Mets by 14 runs: <1%New York Mets by 13 runs: <1%New York Mets by 12 runs: 1%New York Mets by 11 runs: 1%New York Mets by 10 runs: 1%New York Mets by 9 runs: 1%New York Mets by 8 runs: 2%New York Mets by 7 runs: 3%New York Mets by 6 runs: 4%New York Mets by 5 runs: 5%New York Mets by 4 runs: 6%New York Mets by 3 runs: 8%New York Mets by 2 runs: 10%New York Mets by 1 run: 11%St. Louis Cardinals by 1 run: 16%St. Louis Cardinals by 2 runs: 9%St. Louis Cardinals by 3 runs: 6%St. Louis Cardinals by 4 runs: 5%St. Louis Cardinals by 5 runs: 3%St. Louis Cardinals by 6 runs: 2%St. Louis Cardinals by 7 runs: 2%St. Louis Cardinals by 8 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 9 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 10 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 11 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 12 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 13 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 14 runs: <1%
← NYM wins bySTL wins by →
New York Mets wins by 2 or more43%
New York Mets wins by 3 or more33%
St. Louis Cardinals wins by 2 or more30%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.3 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.560%
Total over 9.542%
Total over 11.527%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
NYMClay Holmes SP · last 3 starts: 14.0 IP, 3.86 ERA, 9 Kstarted
STLKyle Leahy SP · last 1 start: 3.0 IP, 0.00 ERA, 1 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NYM·STL
Mar 29 vs PIT
last game
Mar 29 vs TB
0 days
days of rest
0 days
3
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 3+ games
NYM·STL
+0.07
rating (0 = average)
−0.05
6.0
runs / game
7.3
4.3
runs allowed / game
7.7
2−1
season record
2−1
2−1
home record
2−1
0−0
away record
0−0
L1
streak
L1
5−5
last 10
5−5
8.7
hits / game
10.3
1.00
home runs / game
1.67
5.3
walks drawn / game
2.0
11.3
batter strikeouts / game
5.3
10.3
pitcher strikeouts / game
6.3
0.67
errors / game
0.67

Rating Trend

NYM · STL · 5 days
New York MetsSt. Louis Cardinals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · STL 2−8
May 4, 2025at STLSTL 5 − 4
May 4, 2025at STLSTL 6 − 5
May 2, 2025at STLNYM 9 − 3
Apr 20, 2025at NYMNYM 7 − 4
Apr 19, 2025at NYMNYM 3 − 0
Apr 18, 2025at NYMNYM 5 − 4
Apr 17, 2025at NYMNYM 4 − 1
Aug 5, 2024at STLNYM 6 − 0
May 7, 2024at STLNYM 7 − 5
May 6, 2024at STLNYM 4 − 3

NYM · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Mar 29vs PIT3 − 4L
Mar 28vs PIT4 − 2W
Mar 26vs PIT11 − 7W
Sep 28, 2025at MIA0 − 4L
Sep 27, 2025at MIA5 − 0W
Sep 26, 2025at MIA2 − 6L
Sep 25, 2025at CHC8 − 5W
Sep 24, 2025at CHC3 − 10L
Sep 23, 2025at CHC9 − 7W
Sep 21, 2025vs WSH2 − 3L

STL · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Mar 29vs TB7 − 11L
Mar 28vs TB6 − 5W
Mar 26vs TB9 − 7W
Sep 28, 2025at CHC0 − 2L
Sep 27, 2025at CHC3 − 7L
Sep 26, 2025at CHC1 − 12L
Sep 24, 2025at SF3 − 4L
Sep 23, 2025at SF9 − 8W
Sep 22, 2025at SF6 − 5W
Sep 21, 2025vs MIL5 − 1W