bayesRatings

Yankees at Mariners

MLB · Monday, Mar 30 · 8:40 PM CT · T-Mobile Park · Final NYY 1 – SEA 2
← MLB / Mar 30

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
NYY000000100161
SEA010000001291
Team box
NYY·SEA
6
hits
9
0
home runs
0
2
walks
3
10
strikeouts
11
142
pitches thrown
149
1
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Cole YoungSEA3-4001
Giancarlo StantonNYY2-4000
Leo RivasSEA2-4100
Cal RaleighSEA1-2001
Brendan DonovanSEA2-4000
Aaron JudgeNYY1-3000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Ryan WeathersNYY4.14127
Paul Blackburn (L)NYY1.13110
Luis CastilloSEA6.03027
Matt Brash (W)SEA1.01001

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SEA +3
NYY +3
123456789
largest lead: SEA 1 · NYY 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NYY 51%, SEA 49% · Updated Mar 30

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
NYY 4.7 – 4.5 SEA
Expected total
9.2
YankeesThe matchupMariners
−104Our fair odds+104
4.7Expected runs4.5
+0.27Power rating+0.13
4.3Runs / game5.5
0.3Allowed / game3.2
8.3Hits / game6.8
1.00Home runs / game2.00
2.7Walks drawn / game5.2
3−0Season record2−2
6−4Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NYY chance · SEA chance
Our model fair51.1%48.9%
Kalshi54.7%50.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYYNew York Yankees−10451%−12154.7%———
SEASeattle Mariners+10449%−10350.7%———
Spreadabout even
NYYNew York Yankees−0.2our margin————
SEASeattle Mariners+0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.2
Over9.2our total————
Under9.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
New York Yankees by 13 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 12 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 11 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 10 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 9 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 8 runs: 2%New York Yankees by 7 runs: 2%New York Yankees by 6 runs: 3%New York Yankees by 5 runs: 4%New York Yankees by 4 runs: 6%New York Yankees by 3 runs: 7%New York Yankees by 2 runs: 10%New York Yankees by 1 run: 13%Seattle Mariners by 1 run: 14%Seattle Mariners by 2 runs: 9%Seattle Mariners by 3 runs: 7%Seattle Mariners by 4 runs: 5%Seattle Mariners by 5 runs: 4%Seattle Mariners by 6 runs: 3%Seattle Mariners by 7 runs: 2%Seattle Mariners by 8 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 9 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 10 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 11 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 12 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 13 runs: <1%
← NYY wins bySEA wins by →
New York Yankees wins by 2 or more38%
New York Yankees wins by 3 or more28%
Seattle Mariners wins by 2 or more35%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.2 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.559%
Total over 9.541%
Total over 11.527%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
NYYRyan Weathers SP · last 3 starts: 13.2 IP, 5.27 ERA, 14 Kstarted
SEALuis Castillo SP · last 3 starts: 14.1 IP, 2.51 ERA, 14 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NYY·SEA
Mar 28 at SF
last game
Mar 29 vs CLE
1 day
days of rest
0 days
3
games in last 7 days
4
4th straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 3+ games
NYY·SEA
+0.27
rating (0 = average)
+0.13
4.3
runs / game
5.5
0.3
runs allowed / game
3.2
3−0
season record
2−2
0−0
home record
2−2
3−0
away record
0−0
W3
streak
W1
6−4
last 10
4−6
8.3
hits / game
6.8
1.00
home runs / game
2.00
2.7
walks drawn / game
5.2
9.7
batter strikeouts / game
11.0
9.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
11.8
0.33
errors / game
0.25

Rating Trend

NYY · SEA · 5 days
New York YankeesSeattle Mariners
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SEA 2−8
Jul 10, 2025at NYYNYY 6 − 5
Jul 9, 2025at NYYNYY 9 − 6
Jul 8, 2025at NYYNYY 10 − 3
May 14, 2025at SEANYY 3 − 2
May 13, 2025at SEASEA 2 − 1
May 12, 2025at SEANYY 11 − 5
Sep 19, 2024at SEASEA 3 − 2
Sep 18, 2024at SEANYY 2 − 1
Sep 17, 2024at SEANYY 11 − 2
May 23, 2024at NYYNYY 5 − 0

NYY · Last 10

6−4 · streak W3
Mar 28at SF3 − 1W
Mar 27at SF3 − 0W
Mar 25at SF7 − 0W
Oct 8, 2025vs TOR2 − 5L
Oct 7, 2025vs TOR9 − 6W
Oct 5, 2025at TOR7 − 13L
Oct 4, 2025at TOR1 − 10L
Oct 2, 2025vs BOS4 − 0W
Oct 1, 2025vs BOS4 − 3W
Sep 30, 2025vs BOS1 − 3L

SEA · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Mar 29vs CLE8 − 0W
Mar 28vs CLE5 − 6L
Mar 27vs CLE5 − 1W
Mar 26vs CLE4 − 6L
Oct 20, 2025at TOR3 − 4L
Oct 19, 2025at TOR2 − 6L
Oct 17, 2025vs TOR6 − 2W
Oct 16, 2025vs TOR2 − 8L
Oct 15, 2025vs TOR4 − 13L
Oct 13, 2025at TOR10 − 3W