bayesRatings

Rangers at Orioles

MLB · Monday, Mar 30 · 5:35 PM CT · Oriole Park at Camden Yards · Final TEX 5 – BAL 2
← MLB / Mar 30

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
TEX1300000015100
BAL100010000271
Team box
TEX·BAL
10
hits
7
0
home runs
1
5
walks
1
11
strikeouts
11
123
pitches thrown
181
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Gunnar HendersonBAL2-4112
Brandon NimmoTEX3-5201
Jake BurgerTEX2-4102
Josh SmithTEX1-3001
Evan CarterTEX2-5100
Taylor WardBAL1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Jack Leiter (W)TEX6.05218
Tyler Alexander (S)TEX1.00002
Chris Bassitt (L)BAL4.16443

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BAL +3
TEX +3
123456789
largest lead: BAL 0 · TEX 3lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TEX 50%, BAL 50% · Updated Mar 30

Expected margin
TEX by 0.7
Expected score
TEX 4.5 – 3.8 BAL
Expected total
8.3
RangersThe matchupOrioles
−101Our fair odds+101
4.5Expected runs3.8
+0.06Power rating−0.04
5.3Runs / game3.7
4.0Allowed / game3.7
8.7Hits / game7.3
1.67Home runs / game0.33
2.3Walks drawn / game4.7
2−1Season record2−1
4−6Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TEX chance · BAL chance
Our model fair50.2%49.8%
Kalshi48.7%55.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:35 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TEXTexas Rangers−10150%+10548.7%———
BALBaltimore Orioles+10150%−12655.7%———
SpreadTEX by 0.7
TEXTexas Rangers−0.7our margin————
BALBaltimore Orioles+0.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.3
Over8.3our total————
Under8.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Texas Rangers by 0.7 expected
Texas Rangers by 13 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 12 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 11 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 10 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 9 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 8 runs: 2%Texas Rangers by 7 runs: 3%Texas Rangers by 6 runs: 4%Texas Rangers by 5 runs: 5%Texas Rangers by 4 runs: 6%Texas Rangers by 3 runs: 8%Texas Rangers by 2 runs: 11%Texas Rangers by 1 run: 11%Baltimore Orioles by 1 run: 18%Baltimore Orioles by 2 runs: 9%Baltimore Orioles by 3 runs: 6%Baltimore Orioles by 4 runs: 4%Baltimore Orioles by 5 runs: 3%Baltimore Orioles by 6 runs: 2%Baltimore Orioles by 7 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 8 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 9 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 10 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 11 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 12 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 13 runs: <1%
← TEX wins byBAL wins by →
Texas Rangers wins by 2 or more42%
Texas Rangers wins by 3 or more31%
Baltimore Orioles wins by 2 or more29%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.3 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.564%
Total over 8.544%
Total over 10.527%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
TEXJack Leiter SP · last 3 starts: 19.1 IP, 4.19 ERA, 18 Kstarted
BALChris Bassitt SP · last 3 starts: 14.1 IP, 2.51 ERA, 12 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TEX·BAL
Mar 29 at PHI
last game
Mar 29 vs MIN
0 days
days of rest
0 days
3
games in last 7 days
3
4th straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 3+ games
TEX·BAL
+0.06
rating (0 = average)
−0.04
5.3
runs / game
3.7
4.0
runs allowed / game
3.7
2−1
season record
2−1
0−0
home record
2−1
2−1
away record
0−0
W2
streak
W1
4−6
last 10
4−6
8.7
hits / game
7.3
1.67
home runs / game
0.33
2.3
walks drawn / game
4.7
11.3
batter strikeouts / game
9.7
10.3
pitcher strikeouts / game
10.3
0.67
errors / game
1.00

Rating Trend

TEX · BAL · 5 days
Texas RangersBaltimore Orioles
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · BAL 4−6
Jul 2, 2025at TEXTEX 6 − 0
Jul 1, 2025at TEXTEX 10 − 2
Jun 30, 2025at TEXBAL 10 − 6
Jun 25, 2025at BALTEX 7 − 0
Jun 24, 2025at BALTEX 6 − 5
Jun 23, 2025at BALBAL 6 − 0
Jul 21, 2024at TEXTEX 3 − 2
Jul 20, 2024at TEXBAL 8 − 4
Jul 19, 2024at TEXBAL 9 − 1
Jun 30, 2024at BALTEX 11 − 2

TEX · Last 10

4−6 · streak W2
Mar 29at PHI8 − 3W
Mar 28at PHI5 − 4W
Mar 26at PHI3 − 5L
Sep 28, 2025at CLE8 − 9L
Sep 27, 2025at CLE2 − 3L
Sep 26, 2025at CLE7 − 3W
Sep 25, 2025vs MIN0 − 4L
Sep 24, 2025vs MIN4 − 2W
Sep 23, 2025vs MIN1 − 4L
Sep 21, 2025vs MIA2 − 4L

BAL · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Mar 29vs MIN8 − 6W
Mar 28vs MIN1 − 4L
Mar 26vs MIN2 − 1W
Sep 28, 2025at NYY2 − 3L
Sep 27, 2025at NYY1 − 6L
Sep 26, 2025at NYY4 − 8L
Sep 25, 2025vs TB6 − 5W
Sep 24, 2025vs TB2 − 6L
Sep 23, 2025vs TB6 − 0W
Sep 21, 2025vs NYY1 − 7L