bayesRatings

Nationals at Phillies

MLB · Monday, Mar 30 · 5:40 PM CT · Citizens Bank Park · Final WSH 13 – PHI 2
← MLB / Mar 30

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
WSH41200200413171
PHI000020000272
Team box
WSH·PHI
17
hits
7
0
home runs
1
5
walks
2
6
strikeouts
9
155
pitches thrown
185
1
errors
2
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Luis Garcia Jr.WSH2-6103
Jose TenaWSH3-5202
Rafael MarchanPHI1-3112
Daylen LileWSH2-6202
CJ AbramsWSH2-6101
Jorbit VivasWSH2-3201
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Foster Griffin (W)WSH5.05205
Taijuan Walker (L)PHI4.210632

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
PHI +11
WSH +11
123456789
largest lead: PHI 0 · WSH 11lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was WSH 38%, PHI 62% · Updated Mar 30

Expected margin
PHI by 1.8
Expected score
PHI 5.7 – 3.9 WSH
Expected total
9.5
NationalsThe matchupPhillies
+166Our fair odds−166
3.9Expected runs5.7
−0.25Power rating+0.18
6.0Runs / game4.0
5.7Allowed / game5.3
8.7Hits / game6.0
2.00Home runs / game0.67
3.0Walks drawn / game4.0
2−1Season record1−2
5−5Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
WSH chance · PHI chance
Our model fair37.6%62.4%
Kalshi40.7%63.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
WSHWashington Nationals+16638%+14640.7%———
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies−16662%−17563.6%———
SpreadPHI by 1.8
WSHWashington Nationals+1.8our margin————
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies−1.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.5
Over9.5our total————
Under9.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Philadelphia Phillies by 1.8 expected
Washington Nationals by 16 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 15 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 14 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 13 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 12 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 11 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 10 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 9 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 8 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 7 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 6 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 5 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 4 runs: 4%Washington Nationals by 3 runs: 5%Washington Nationals by 2 runs: 7%Washington Nationals by 1 run: 14%Philadelphia Phillies by 1 run: 11%Philadelphia Phillies by 2 runs: 11%Philadelphia Phillies by 3 runs: 8%Philadelphia Phillies by 4 runs: 7%Philadelphia Phillies by 5 runs: 6%Philadelphia Phillies by 6 runs: 5%Philadelphia Phillies by 7 runs: 4%Philadelphia Phillies by 8 runs: 3%Philadelphia Phillies by 9 runs: 2%Philadelphia Phillies by 10 runs: 2%Philadelphia Phillies by 11 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 12 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 13 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 14 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 15 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 16 runs: <1%
← WSH wins byPHI wins by →
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 2 or more52%
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 3 or more41%
Washington Nationals wins by 2 or more23%
Decided by one run25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.5 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.562%
Total over 9.544%
Total over 11.529%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
WSHFoster Griffin SP · no recent starts on recordstarted
PHITaijuan Walker SP · last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 6.00 ERA, 6 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
WSH·PHI
Mar 29 at CHC
last game
Mar 29 vs TEX
0 days
days of rest
0 days
3
games in last 7 days
3
4th straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 3+ games
WSH·PHI
−0.25
rating (0 = average)
+0.18
6.0
runs / game
4.0
5.7
runs allowed / game
5.3
2−1
season record
1−2
0−0
home record
1−2
2−1
away record
0−0
W1
streak
L2
5−5
last 10
4−6
8.7
hits / game
6.0
2.00
home runs / game
0.67
3.0
walks drawn / game
4.0
9.0
batter strikeouts / game
10.3
8.7
pitcher strikeouts / game
11.3
1.67
errors / game
0.33

Rating Trend

WSH · PHI · 5 days
Washington NationalsPhiladelphia Phillies
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · PHI 6−4
Aug 24, 2025at PHIPHI 3 − 2
Aug 23, 2025at PHIPHI 6 − 4
Aug 22, 2025at PHIWSH 5 − 4
Aug 17, 2025at WSHPHI 11 − 9
Aug 16, 2025at WSHWSH 2 − 0
Aug 15, 2025at WSHPHI 6 − 2
Aug 14, 2025at WSHWSH 3 − 2
May 1, 2025at PHIWSH 4 − 2
Apr 30, 2025at PHIPHI 7 − 2
Apr 29, 2025at PHIPHI 7 − 6

WSH · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Mar 29at CHC6 − 3W
Mar 28at CHC2 − 10L
Mar 26at CHC10 − 4W
Sep 28, 2025vs CHW0 − 8L
Sep 27, 2025vs CHW6 − 5W
Sep 26, 2025vs CHW9 − 10L
Sep 24, 2025at ATL4 − 3W
Sep 23, 2025at ATL2 − 3L
Sep 22, 2025at ATL5 − 11L
Sep 21, 2025at NYM3 − 2W

PHI · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
Mar 29vs TEX3 − 8L
Mar 28vs TEX4 − 5L
Mar 26vs TEX5 − 3W
Oct 9, 2025at LAD1 − 2L
Oct 8, 2025at LAD8 − 2W
Oct 6, 2025vs LAD3 − 4L
Oct 4, 2025vs LAD3 − 5L
Sep 28, 2025vs MIN2 − 1W
Sep 27, 2025vs MIN0 − 5L
Sep 26, 2025vs MIN3 − 1W