bayesRatings

Athletics at Braves

MLB · Tuesday, Mar 31 · 6:15 PM CT · Truist Park · Final ATH 5 – ATL 2
← MLB / Mar 31

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
ATH030110000581
ATL100010000260
Team box
ATH·ATL
8
hits
6
1
home runs
1
3
walks
4
11
strikeouts
6
161
pitches thrown
127
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Andy IbanezATH2-4102
Jacob WilsonATH2-4002
Shea LangeliersATH1-4111
Drake BaldwinATL1-4111
Mauricio DubonATL2-4000
Brent RookerATH1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Aaron Civale (W)ATH5.04213
Mark Leiter Jr. (S)ATH1.02001
Jose Suarez (L)ATL3.25436

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ATL +4
ATH +4
123456789
largest lead: ATL 1 · ATH 4lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ATH 45%, ATL 55% · Updated Mar 31

Expected margin
ATL by 0.7
Expected score
ATL 4.8 – 4.2 ATH
Expected total
9.0
AthleticsThe matchupBraves
+124Our fair odds−124
4.2Expected runs4.8
−0.09Power rating+0.03
2.8Runs / game4.2
5.0Allowed / game1.5
5.8Hits / game9.2
1.00Home runs / game1.25
2.2Walks drawn / game3.2
0−4Season record3−1
3−7Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ATH chance · ATL chance
Our model fair44.6%55.4%
Kalshi42.7%61.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:15 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ATHAthletics+12445%+13442.7%———
ATLAtlanta Braves−12455%−16161.7%———
SpreadATL by 0.7
ATHAthletics+0.7our margin————
ATLAtlanta Braves−0.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.0
Over9.0our total————
Under9.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Atlanta Braves by 0.7 expected
Athletics by 14 runs: <1%Athletics by 13 runs: <1%Athletics by 12 runs: <1%Athletics by 11 runs: <1%Athletics by 10 runs: <1%Athletics by 9 runs: 1%Athletics by 8 runs: 1%Athletics by 7 runs: 2%Athletics by 6 runs: 2%Athletics by 5 runs: 3%Athletics by 4 runs: 5%Athletics by 3 runs: 6%Athletics by 2 runs: 9%Athletics by 1 run: 14%Atlanta Braves by 1 run: 13%Atlanta Braves by 2 runs: 10%Atlanta Braves by 3 runs: 8%Atlanta Braves by 4 runs: 6%Atlanta Braves by 5 runs: 5%Atlanta Braves by 6 runs: 4%Atlanta Braves by 7 runs: 3%Atlanta Braves by 8 runs: 2%Atlanta Braves by 9 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 10 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 11 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 12 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 13 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 14 runs: <1%
← ATH wins byATL wins by →
Atlanta Braves wins by 2 or more42%
Atlanta Braves wins by 3 or more32%
Athletics wins by 2 or more30%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.0 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.558%
Total over 9.540%
Total over 11.525%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
ATHAaron Civale RP · last 3 starts: 15.2 IP, 6.89 ERA, 12 Kstarted
ATLJose Suarez RP · last 3 starts: 17.0 IP, 2.65 ERA, 19 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ATH·ATL
Mar 30 at ATL
last game
Mar 30 vs ATH
0 days
days of rest
0 days
4
games in last 7 days
4
5th straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 4+ games
ATH·ATL
−0.09
rating (0 = average)
+0.03
2.8
runs / game
4.2
5.0
runs allowed / game
1.5
0−4
season record
3−1
0−0
home record
3−1
0−4
away record
0−0
L4
streak
W1
3−7
last 10
6−4
5.8
hits / game
9.2
1.00
home runs / game
1.25
2.2
walks drawn / game
3.2
14.2
batter strikeouts / game
6.8
5.2
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.8
0.00
errors / game
0.75

Rating Trend

ATH · ATL · 6 days
AthleticsAtlanta Braves
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ATL 5−5
Mar 30at ATLATL 4 − 0
Jul 10, 2025at ATHATH 5 − 4
Jul 9, 2025at ATHATL 9 − 2
Jul 8, 2025at ATHATH 10 − 1
Jun 2, 2024at ATLATL 3 − 1
Jun 1, 2024at ATLATH 11 − 9
May 31, 2024at ATLATL 4 − 2
May 31, 2023at ATHATL 4 − 2
May 30, 2023at ATHATH 2 − 1
May 29, 2023at ATHATH 7 − 2

ATH · Last 10

3−7 · streak L6
Mar 30at ATL0 − 4L
Mar 29at TOR2 − 5L
Mar 28at TOR7 − 8L
Mar 27at TOR2 − 3L
Sep 28, 2025vs KC2 − 9L
Sep 27, 2025vs KC2 − 4L
Sep 26, 2025vs KC4 − 3W
Sep 25, 2025vs HOU5 − 11L
Sep 24, 2025vs HOU6 − 0W
Sep 23, 2025vs HOU5 − 1W

ATL · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Mar 30vs ATH4 − 0W
Mar 29vs KC1 − 4L
Mar 28vs KC6 − 2W
Mar 27vs KC6 − 0W
Sep 28, 2025vs PIT4 − 1W
Sep 27, 2025vs PIT1 − 3L
Sep 26, 2025vs PIT3 − 9L
Sep 24, 2025vs WSH3 − 4L
Sep 23, 2025vs WSH3 − 2W
Sep 22, 2025vs WSH11 − 5W