bayesRatings

Tigers at Diamondbacks

MLB · Tuesday, Mar 31 · 8:40 PM CT · Chase Field · Final DET 5 – ARI 7
← MLB / Mar 31

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
DET005000000560
ARI00010006780
Team box
DET·ARI
6
hits
8
0
home runs
2
2
walks
4
9
strikeouts
12
144
pitches thrown
130
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Jose FernandezARI3-4224
Corbin CarrollARI1-3002
Riley GreeneDET1-4102
Gabriel MorenoARI1-4001
Jake RogersDET1-3101
Kerry CarpenterDET1-3001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Casey MizeDET6.04129
Will Vest (L)DET0.21320
Brandon PfaadtARI6.06513
Andrew Hoffmann (W)ARI2.00013
Paul Sewald (S)ARI1.00003

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ARI +5
DET +5
123456789
largest lead: ARI 2 · DET 5lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DET 49%, ARI 51% · Updated Mar 31

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
DET 5.0 – 4.9 ARI
Expected total
9.9
TigersThe matchupDiamondbacks
+104Our fair odds−104
5.0Expected runs4.9
+0.07Power rating+0.01
4.8Runs / game4.2
4.0Allowed / game5.5
7.5Hits / game7.5
0.25Home runs / game1.00
5.0Walks drawn / game2.8
2−2Season record1−3
5−5Last 102−8

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DET chance · ARI chance
Our model fair49.1%50.9%
Kalshi52.7%53.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DETDetroit Tigers+10449%−11252.7%———
ARIArizona Diamondbacks−10451%−11653.7%———
Spreadabout even
DETDetroit Tigers−0.1our margin————
ARIArizona Diamondbacks+0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.9
Over9.9our total————
Under9.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Detroit Tigers by 14 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 13 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 12 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 11 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 10 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 9 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 8 runs: 2%Detroit Tigers by 7 runs: 2%Detroit Tigers by 6 runs: 3%Detroit Tigers by 5 runs: 4%Detroit Tigers by 4 runs: 6%Detroit Tigers by 3 runs: 7%Detroit Tigers by 2 runs: 9%Detroit Tigers by 1 run: 11%Arizona Diamondbacks by 1 run: 15%Arizona Diamondbacks by 2 runs: 9%Arizona Diamondbacks by 3 runs: 7%Arizona Diamondbacks by 4 runs: 5%Arizona Diamondbacks by 5 runs: 4%Arizona Diamondbacks by 6 runs: 3%Arizona Diamondbacks by 7 runs: 2%Arizona Diamondbacks by 8 runs: 2%Arizona Diamondbacks by 9 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 10 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 11 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 12 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 13 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 14 runs: <1%
← DET wins byARI wins by →
Detroit Tigers wins by 2 or more38%
Detroit Tigers wins by 3 or more29%
Arizona Diamondbacks wins by 2 or more36%
Decided by one run26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.9 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 4%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 8%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 10%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 9%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 3%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 2%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: 1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%26 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.565%
Total over 9.547%
Total over 11.532%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
DETCasey Mize SP · last 3 starts: 12.1 IP, 2.92 ERA, 15 Kstarted
ARIBrandon Pfaadt SP · last 3 starts: 19.0 IP, 4.74 ERA, 16 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DET·ARI
Mar 30 at ARI
last game
Mar 30 vs DET
0 days
days of rest
0 days
4
games in last 7 days
4
5th straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 4+ games
DET·ARI
+0.07
rating (0 = average)
+0.01
4.8
runs / game
4.2
4.0
runs allowed / game
5.5
2−2
season record
1−3
0−0
home record
1−0
2−2
away record
0−3
L2
streak
W1
5−5
last 10
2−8
7.5
hits / game
7.5
0.25
home runs / game
1.00
5.0
walks drawn / game
2.8
11.5
batter strikeouts / game
7.5
7.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.2
1.25
errors / game
0.50

Rating Trend

DET · ARI · 6 days
Detroit TigersArizona Diamondbacks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ARI 5−5
Mar 30at ARIARI 9 − 6
Jul 30, 2025at DETDET 7 − 2
Jul 29, 2025at DETDET 12 − 2
Jul 28, 2025at DETDET 5 − 1
May 19, 2024at ARIARI 6 − 4
May 18, 2024at ARIDET 8 − 3
May 17, 2024at ARIDET 13 − 0
Jun 11, 2023at DETARI 7 − 5
Jun 10, 2023at DETARI 5 − 0
Jun 9, 2023at DETARI 11 − 6

DET · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
Mar 30at ARI6 − 9L
Mar 28at SD0 − 3L
Mar 27at SD5 − 2W
Mar 26at SD8 − 2W
Oct 10, 2025at SEA2 − 3L
Oct 8, 2025vs SEA9 − 3W
Oct 7, 2025vs SEA4 − 8L
Oct 5, 2025at SEA2 − 3L
Oct 4, 2025at SEA3 − 2W
Oct 2, 2025at CLE6 − 3W

ARI · Last 10

2−8 · streak W1
Mar 30vs DET9 − 6W
Mar 28at LAD2 − 3L
Mar 27at LAD4 − 5L
Mar 26at LAD2 − 8L
Sep 28, 2025at SD4 − 12L
Sep 27, 2025at SD1 − 5L
Sep 26, 2025at SD4 − 7L
Sep 25, 2025vs LAD0 − 8L
Sep 24, 2025vs LAD4 − 5L
Sep 23, 2025vs LAD5 − 4W