bayesRatings

Giants at Padres

MLB · Tuesday, Mar 31 · 8:40 PM CT · Petco Park · Final SF 9 – SD 3
← MLB / Mar 31

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
SF3010040019160
SD003000000361
Team box
SF·SD
16
hits
6
2
home runs
0
2
walks
4
7
strikeouts
8
150
pitches thrown
155
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Willy AdamesSF4-5212
Jung Hoo LeeSF3-5003
Matt ChapmanSF2-5211
Heliot RamosSF1-4102
Miguel AndujarSD1-4001
Jackson MerrillSD1-3101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Logan Webb (W)SF6.03345
German Marquez (L)SD3.08411

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SD +6
SF +6
123456789
largest lead: SD 0 · SF 6lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SF 45%, SD 55% · Updated Mar 31

Expected margin
SD by 0.6
Expected score
SD 4.2 – 3.6 SF
Expected total
7.7
GiantsThe matchupPadres
+122Our fair odds−122
3.6Expected runs4.2
−0.02Power rating+0.09
1.0Runs / game2.2
3.8Allowed / game4.0
4.8Hits / game5.8
0.25Home runs / game0.50
2.5Walks drawn / game3.0
1−3Season record1−3
5−5Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SF chance · SD chance
Our model fair45.1%54.9%
Kalshi56.7%47.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SFSan Francisco Giants+12245%−13156.7%———
SDSan Diego Padres−12255%+10947.7%———
SpreadSD by 0.6
SFSan Francisco Giants+0.6our margin————
SDSan Diego Padres−0.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 7.7
Over7.7our total————
Under7.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

San Diego Padres by 0.6 expected
San Francisco Giants by 12 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 11 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 10 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 9 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 8 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 7 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 6 runs: 2%San Francisco Giants by 5 runs: 3%San Francisco Giants by 4 runs: 5%San Francisco Giants by 3 runs: 6%San Francisco Giants by 2 runs: 10%San Francisco Giants by 1 run: 16%San Diego Padres by 1 run: 15%San Diego Padres by 2 runs: 11%San Diego Padres by 3 runs: 8%San Diego Padres by 4 runs: 6%San Diego Padres by 5 runs: 5%San Diego Padres by 6 runs: 3%San Diego Padres by 7 runs: 2%San Diego Padres by 8 runs: 2%San Diego Padres by 9 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 10 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 11 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 12 runs: <1%
← SF wins bySD wins by →
San Diego Padres wins by 2 or more40%
San Diego Padres wins by 3 or more29%
San Francisco Giants wins by 2 or more29%
Decided by one run31%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

7.7 expected
1 runs: 3%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 9%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 13%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: <1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 5.567%
Total over 7.546%
Total over 9.528%
Total from 6 to 939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
SFLogan Webb SP · last 3 starts: 16.1 IP, 4.96 ERA, 20 Kstarted
SDGerman Marquez SP · last 3 starts: 13.2 IP, 9.88 ERA, 6 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SF·SD
Mar 30 at SD
last game
Mar 30 vs SF
0 days
days of rest
0 days
4
games in last 7 days
4
2nd straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 4+ games
SF·SD
−0.02
rating (0 = average)
+0.09
1.0
runs / game
2.2
3.8
runs allowed / game
4.0
1−3
season record
1−3
0−3
home record
1−3
1−0
away record
0−0
W1
streak
L1
5−5
last 10
5−5
4.8
hits / game
5.8
0.25
home runs / game
0.50
2.5
walks drawn / game
3.0
8.5
batter strikeouts / game
9.0
10.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.8
0.25
errors / game
0.25

Rating Trend

SF · SD · 6 days
San Francisco GiantsSan Diego Padres
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SD 6−4
Mar 30at SDSF 3 − 2
Aug 21, 2025at SDSD 8 − 4
Aug 20, 2025at SDSD 8 − 1
Aug 19, 2025at SDSD 5 − 1
Aug 18, 2025at SDSF 4 − 3
Aug 13, 2025at SFSD 11 − 1
Aug 12, 2025at SFSD 5 − 1
Aug 11, 2025at SFSD 4 − 1
Jun 5, 2025at SFSF 3 − 2
Jun 4, 2025at SFSF 6 − 5

SF · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Mar 30at SD3 − 2W
Mar 28vs NYY1 − 3L
Mar 27vs NYY0 − 3L
Mar 25vs NYY0 − 7L
Sep 28, 2025vs COL4 − 0W
Sep 27, 2025vs COL4 − 3W
Sep 26, 2025vs COL6 − 3W
Sep 24, 2025vs STL4 − 3W
Sep 23, 2025vs STL8 − 9L
Sep 22, 2025vs STL5 − 6L

SD · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Mar 30vs SF2 − 3L
Mar 28vs DET3 − 0W
Mar 27vs DET2 − 5L
Mar 26vs DET2 − 8L
Oct 2, 2025at CHC1 − 3L
Oct 1, 2025at CHC3 − 0W
Sep 30, 2025at CHC1 − 3L
Sep 28, 2025vs ARI12 − 4W
Sep 27, 2025vs ARI5 − 1W
Sep 26, 2025vs ARI7 − 4W