bayesRatings

Twins at Royals

MLB · Wednesday, Apr 1 · 6:40 PM CT · Kauffman Stadium · Final MIN 9 – KC 13
← MLB / Apr 1

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
MIN000010323991
KC0311071013151
Team box
MIN·KC
9
hits
15
1
home runs
2
9
walks
5
11
strikeouts
8
172
pitches thrown
209
1
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Jonathan IndiaKC2-5115
Kyle IsbelKC4-4312
Josh BellMIN1-3313
Maikel GarciaKC1-2103
Jac CaglianoneKC3-4300
Austin MartinMIN1-3002
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Joe Ryan (L)MIN4.09503
Noah Cameron (W)KC5.04115
Lucas Erceg (S)KC0.20000

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
KC +11
MIN +11
123456789
largest lead: KC 11 · MIN 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIN 43%, KC 57% · Updated Apr 1

Expected margin
KC by 0.7
Expected score
KC 4.2 – 3.5 MIN
Expected total
7.8
TwinsThe matchupRoyals
+130Our fair odds−130
3.5Expected runs4.2
−0.14Power rating+0.04
3.0Runs / game2.2
3.5Allowed / game3.5
6.2Hits / game6.0
0.75Home runs / game1.00
4.0Walks drawn / game2.8
1−3Season record2−2
4−6Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIN chance · KC chance
Our model fair43.4%56.6%
Kalshi52.7%51.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MINMinnesota Twins+13043%−11252.7%———
KCKansas City Royals−13057%−10751.8%———
SpreadKC by 0.7
MINMinnesota Twins+0.7our margin————
KCKansas City Royals−0.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 7.8
Over7.8our total————
Under7.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Kansas City Royals by 0.7 expected
Minnesota Twins by 13 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 12 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 11 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 10 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 9 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 8 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 7 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 6 runs: 2%Minnesota Twins by 5 runs: 3%Minnesota Twins by 4 runs: 4%Minnesota Twins by 3 runs: 6%Minnesota Twins by 2 runs: 9%Minnesota Twins by 1 run: 15%Kansas City Royals by 1 run: 16%Kansas City Royals by 2 runs: 11%Kansas City Royals by 3 runs: 8%Kansas City Royals by 4 runs: 6%Kansas City Royals by 5 runs: 5%Kansas City Royals by 6 runs: 3%Kansas City Royals by 7 runs: 2%Kansas City Royals by 8 runs: 2%Kansas City Royals by 9 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 10 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 11 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 12 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 13 runs: <1%
← MIN wins byKC wins by →
Kansas City Royals wins by 2 or more41%
Kansas City Royals wins by 3 or more30%
Minnesota Twins wins by 2 or more28%
Decided by one run31%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

7.8 expected
1 runs: 3%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 9%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 13%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: <1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 5.568%
Total over 7.547%
Total over 9.529%
Total from 6 to 939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
MINJoe Ryan SP · last 3 starts: 15.1 IP, 2.93 ERA, 21 Kstarted
KCNoah Cameron SP · last 3 starts: 18.1 IP, 2.95 ERA, 18 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIN·KC
Mar 30 at KC
last game
Mar 30 vs MIN
1 day
days of rest
1 day
4
games in last 7 days
4
5th straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 4+ games
MIN·KC
−0.14
rating (0 = average)
+0.04
3.0
runs / game
2.2
3.5
runs allowed / game
3.5
1−3
season record
2−2
0−0
home record
1−0
1−3
away record
1−2
L2
streak
W2
4−6
last 10
6−4
6.2
hits / game
6.0
0.75
home runs / game
1.00
4.0
walks drawn / game
2.8
9.2
batter strikeouts / game
7.8
9.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.2
0.25
errors / game
0.00

Rating Trend

MIN · KC · 7 days
Minnesota TwinsKansas City Royals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · KC 5−5
Mar 30at KCKC 3 − 1
Sep 7, 2025at KCMIN 5 − 1
Sep 6, 2025at KCKC 11 − 2
Sep 5, 2025at KCKC 2 − 1
Aug 10, 2025at MINMIN 5 − 3
Aug 9, 2025at MINKC 2 − 0
Aug 8, 2025at MINMIN 9 − 4
May 25, 2025at MINKC 2 − 1
May 24, 2025at MINMIN 5 − 4
May 23, 2025at MINMIN 3 − 1

MIN · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
Mar 30at KC1 − 3L
Mar 29at BAL6 − 8L
Mar 28at BAL4 − 1W
Mar 26at BAL1 − 2L
Sep 28, 2025at PHI1 − 2L
Sep 27, 2025at PHI5 − 0W
Sep 26, 2025at PHI1 − 3L
Sep 25, 2025at TEX4 − 0W
Sep 24, 2025at TEX2 − 4L
Sep 23, 2025at TEX4 − 1W

KC · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
Mar 30vs MIN3 − 1W
Mar 29at ATL4 − 1W
Mar 28at ATL2 − 6L
Mar 27at ATL0 − 6L
Sep 28, 2025at ATH9 − 2W
Sep 27, 2025at ATH4 − 2W
Sep 26, 2025at ATH3 − 4L
Sep 25, 2025at LAA9 − 4W
Sep 24, 2025at LAA2 − 3L
Sep 23, 2025at LAA8 − 4W