bayesRatings

Giants at Guardians

MLB · Tuesday, Aug 18 · 5:40 PM CT · Progressive Field · Final SF 1 – CLE 8
← MLB / Aug 18

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
SF010000000172
CLE320200108120
Team box
SF·CLE
7
hits
12
1
home runs
1
2
walks
3
12
strikeouts
8
143
pitches thrown
145
2
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Jo AdellCLE3-4116
Bryce EldridgeSF2-4111
Jose RamirezCLE3-5200
Angel MartinezCLE1-4101
Angel GenaoCLE2-3000
Jonah CoxSF2-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Carson Whisenhunt (L)SF4.09621
Foster Griffin (W)CLE6.05126

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CLE +7
SF +7
123456789
largest lead: CLE 7 · SF 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SF 46%, CLE 54% · Updated Aug 18

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
CLE 4.0 – 3.6 SF
Expected total
7.6
GiantsThe matchupGuardians
+117Our fair odds−117
3.6Expected runs4.0
−0.13Power rating−0.03
4.1Runs / game4.0
4.6Allowed / game4.2
8.5Hits / game7.7
1.10Home runs / game0.95
2.6Walks drawn / game3.6
51−73Season record60−65
3−7Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SF chance · CLE chance
Our model fair46.1%53.9%
Kalshi37.6%66.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SFSan Francisco Giants+11746%+16637.6%———
CLECleveland Guardians−11754%−19966.6%———
Spreadabout even
SFSan Francisco Giants+0.4our margin————
CLECleveland Guardians−0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 7.6
Over7.6our total————
Under7.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
San Francisco Giants by 12 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 11 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 10 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 9 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 8 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 7 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 6 runs: 2%San Francisco Giants by 5 runs: 3%San Francisco Giants by 4 runs: 5%San Francisco Giants by 3 runs: 7%San Francisco Giants by 2 runs: 10%San Francisco Giants by 1 run: 15%Cleveland Guardians by 1 run: 16%Cleveland Guardians by 2 runs: 11%Cleveland Guardians by 3 runs: 8%Cleveland Guardians by 4 runs: 6%Cleveland Guardians by 5 runs: 4%Cleveland Guardians by 6 runs: 3%Cleveland Guardians by 7 runs: 2%Cleveland Guardians by 8 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 9 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 10 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 11 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 12 runs: <1%
← SF wins byCLE wins by →
Cleveland Guardians wins by 2 or more38%
Cleveland Guardians wins by 3 or more27%
San Francisco Giants wins by 2 or more31%
Decided by one run31%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

7.6 expected
1 runs: 3%2 runs: 3%3 runs: 9%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 13%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 6%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: <1%20 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 5.566%
Total over 7.545%
Total over 9.527%
Total from 6 to 939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
SFCarson Whisenhunt SP · last 3 starts: 12.1 IP, 8.03 ERA, 9 Kstarted
CLEFoster Griffin SP · last 3 starts: 14.1 IP, 7.53 ERA, 12 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SF·CLE
Aug 16 vs COL
last game
Aug 16 vs SD
1 day
days of rest
1 day
5
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 124+ games
SF·CLE
−0.13
rating (0 = average)
−0.03
4.1
runs / game
4.0
4.6
runs allowed / game
4.2
51−73
season record
60−65
29−33
home record
29−33
22−40
away record
31−32
L1
streak
L1
3−7
last 10
3−7
8.5
hits / game
7.7
1.10
home runs / game
0.95
2.6
walks drawn / game
3.6
7.8
batter strikeouts / game
8.2
7.6
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.2
0.64
errors / game
0.54

Rating Trend

SF · CLE · 143 days
San Francisco GiantsCleveland Guardians
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CLE 5−5
Jun 19, 2025at SFSF 2 − 1
Jun 18, 2025at SFCLE 4 − 2
Jun 17, 2025at SFCLE 3 − 2
Jul 7, 2024at CLECLE 5 − 4
Jul 6, 2024at CLECLE 5 − 4
Jul 5, 2024at CLESF 4 − 2
Sep 13, 2023at SFSF 6 − 5
Sep 12, 2023at SFCLE 3 − 1
Sep 11, 2023at SFSF 5 − 4
Apr 17, 2022at CLESF 8 − 1

SF · Last 10

3−7 · streak L1
Aug 16vs COL7 − 13L
Aug 15vs COL7 − 1W
Aug 14vs COL2 − 5L
Aug 12vs HOU1 − 2L
Aug 11vs HOU4 − 1W
Aug 10vs HOU3 − 6L
Aug 9vs DET1 − 3L
Aug 8vs DET0 − 8L
Aug 7vs DET5 − 2W
Aug 5at TEX0 − 6L

CLE · Last 10

3−7 · streak L1
Aug 16vs SD0 − 5L
Aug 15vs SD6 − 1W
Aug 14vs SD5 − 7L
Aug 13at DET0 − 3L
Aug 12at DET6 − 4W
Aug 11at DET4 − 6L
Aug 9at CHW3 − 5L
Aug 8at CHW3 − 6L
Aug 7at CHW8 − 2W
Aug 6vs NYM6 − 13L