bayesRatings

Rockies at Giants

MLB · Sunday, Aug 16 · 3:05 PM CT · Oracle Park · Final COL 13 – SF 7
← MLB / Aug 16

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
COL0400243001391
SF1410100007111
Team box
COL·SF
9
hits
11
2
home runs
1
10
walks
4
5
strikeouts
7
168
pitches thrown
164
1
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Rafael DeversSF2-5213
Brett SullivanCOL1-4213
Adael AmadorCOL1-1313
Mickey MoniakCOL1-4003
Cole CarriggCOL1-3002
Zac VeenCOL1-3101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Gabriel HughesCOL4.08712
Nick Frasso (W)COL1.01012
Blade TidwellSF4.13651
Sam Hentges (L)SF1.11221

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SF +6
COL +6
123456789
largest lead: SF 2 · COL 6lead changes: 3

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was COL 41%, SF 59% · Updated Aug 16

Expected margin
SF by 1.0
Expected score
SF 5.1 – 4.1 COL
Expected total
9.2
RockiesThe matchupGiants
+145Our fair odds−145
4.1Expected runs5.1
−0.43Power rating−0.12
4.7Runs / game4.1
5.7Allowed / game4.6
8.6Hits / game8.4
1.12Home runs / game1.11
3.1Walks drawn / game2.6
49−74Season record51−72
4−6Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
COL chance · SF chance
Our model fair40.8%59.2%
Kalshi47.7%56.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 3:05 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
COLColorado Rockies+14541%+10947.7%———
SFSan Francisco Giants−14559%−13156.7%———
SpreadSF by 1.0
COLColorado Rockies+1our margin————
SFSan Francisco Giants−1our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.2
Over9.2our total————
Under9.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

San Francisco Giants by 1.0 expected
Colorado Rockies by 15 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 14 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 13 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 12 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 11 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 10 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 9 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 8 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 7 runs: 2%Colorado Rockies by 6 runs: 2%Colorado Rockies by 5 runs: 3%Colorado Rockies by 4 runs: 4%Colorado Rockies by 3 runs: 6%Colorado Rockies by 2 runs: 9%Colorado Rockies by 1 run: 12%San Francisco Giants by 1 run: 15%San Francisco Giants by 2 runs: 10%San Francisco Giants by 3 runs: 8%San Francisco Giants by 4 runs: 7%San Francisco Giants by 5 runs: 5%San Francisco Giants by 6 runs: 4%San Francisco Giants by 7 runs: 3%San Francisco Giants by 8 runs: 2%San Francisco Giants by 9 runs: 2%San Francisco Giants by 10 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 11 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 12 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 13 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 14 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 15 runs: <1%
← COL wins bySF wins by →
San Francisco Giants wins by 2 or more44%
San Francisco Giants wins by 3 or more34%
Colorado Rockies wins by 2 or more29%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.2 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.559%
Total over 9.541%
Total over 11.527%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
COLGabriel Hughes SP · last 3 starts: 14.1 IP, 9.42 ERA, 12 Kstarted
SFBlade Tidwell SP · last 3 starts: 14.1 IP, 3.14 ERA, 13 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
COL·SF
Aug 15 at SF
last game
Aug 15 vs COL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
9th straight road game
home / road
9th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 123+ games
COL·SF
−0.43
rating (0 = average)
−0.12
4.7
runs / game
4.1
5.7
runs allowed / game
4.6
49−74
season record
51−72
27−32
home record
29−32
22−42
away record
22−40
L1
streak
W1
4−6
last 10
3−7
8.6
hits / game
8.4
1.12
home runs / game
1.11
3.1
walks drawn / game
2.6
8.6
batter strikeouts / game
7.8
6.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.6
0.63
errors / game
0.63

Rating Trend

COL · SF · 141 days
Colorado RockiesSan Francisco Giants
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SF 6−4
Aug 15at SFSF 7 − 1
Aug 14at SFCOL 5 − 2
Jul 12at SFSF 3 − 1
Jul 11at SFSF 4 − 2
Jul 10at SFCOL 4 − 3
Jul 9at SFSF 8 − 2
Jul 5at COLCOL 7 − 6
Jul 4at COLSF 6 − 4
Jul 3at COLCOL 15 − 3
May 31at COLSF 19 − 6

COL · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Aug 15at SF1 − 7L
Aug 14at SF5 − 2W
Aug 12at ARI6 − 4W
Aug 11at ARI3 − 2W
Aug 10at ARI0 − 9L
Aug 9at STL4 − 7L
Aug 8at STL8 − 6W
Aug 7at STL2 − 3L
Aug 5vs TB0 − 4L
Aug 4vs TB7 − 9L

SF · Last 10

3−7 · streak W1
Aug 15vs COL7 − 1W
Aug 14vs COL2 − 5L
Aug 12vs HOU1 − 2L
Aug 11vs HOU4 − 1W
Aug 10vs HOU3 − 6L
Aug 9vs DET1 − 3L
Aug 8vs DET0 − 8L
Aug 7vs DET5 − 2W
Aug 5at TEX0 − 6L
Aug 4at TEX4 − 5L