bayesRatings

Giants at Rangers

MLB · Tuesday, Aug 4 · 7:05 PM CT · Globe Life Field · Final SF 4 – TEX 5
← MLB / Aug 4

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
SF000000202460
TEX2000000215110
Team box
SF·TEX
6
hits
11
1
home runs
0
5
walks
4
8
strikeouts
5
150
pitches thrown
154
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Ezequiel DuranTEX3-5004
Osleivis BasabeSF1-5112
Brandon NimmoTEX3-5001
Bryce EldridgeSF1-1002
Corey SeagerTEX3-4200
Willy AdamesSF1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Blade TidwellSF5.06213
Dylan Smith (L)SF0.22111
MacKenzie GoreTEX6.03034
Jacob Latz (W)TEX1.02111

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TEX +3
SF +3
123456789
largest lead: TEX 2 · SF 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SF 48%, TEX 52% · Updated Aug 4

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
TEX 4.2 – 4.1 SF
Expected total
8.3
GiantsThe matchupRangers
+110Our fair odds−110
4.1Expected runs4.2
−0.08Power rating−0.04
4.2Runs / game4.1
4.6Allowed / game4.5
8.6Hits / game8.2
1.13Home runs / game1.15
2.6Walks drawn / game3.2
48−65Season record55−58
5−5Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SF chance · TEX chance
Our model fair47.6%52.4%
Kalshi37.6%67.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 7:05 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SFSan Francisco Giants+11048%+16637.6%———
TEXTexas Rangers−11052%−20867.6%———
Spreadabout even
SFSan Francisco Giants+0.2our margin————
TEXTexas Rangers−0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.3
Over8.3our total————
Under8.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
San Francisco Giants by 12 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 11 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 10 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 9 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 8 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 7 runs: 2%San Francisco Giants by 6 runs: 3%San Francisco Giants by 5 runs: 4%San Francisco Giants by 4 runs: 5%San Francisco Giants by 3 runs: 7%San Francisco Giants by 2 runs: 10%San Francisco Giants by 1 run: 14%Texas Rangers by 1 run: 15%Texas Rangers by 2 runs: 10%Texas Rangers by 3 runs: 7%Texas Rangers by 4 runs: 6%Texas Rangers by 5 runs: 4%Texas Rangers by 6 runs: 3%Texas Rangers by 7 runs: 2%Texas Rangers by 8 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 9 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 10 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 11 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 12 runs: <1%
← SF wins byTEX wins by →
Texas Rangers wins by 2 or more37%
Texas Rangers wins by 3 or more27%
San Francisco Giants wins by 2 or more34%
Decided by one run30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.3 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.564%
Total over 8.544%
Total over 10.527%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
SFBlade Tidwell SP · last 2 starts: 7.1 IP, 9.82 ERA, 6 Kstarted
TEXMacKenzie Gore SP · last 3 starts: 17.2 IP, 5.60 ERA, 21 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SF·TEX
Aug 3 at TEX
last game
Aug 3 vs SF
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
7
6th straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 113+ games
SF·TEX
−0.08
rating (0 = average)
−0.04
4.2
runs / game
4.1
4.6
runs allowed / game
4.5
48−65
season record
55−58
26−27
home record
28−26
22−38
away record
27−32
W1
streak
L6
5−5
last 10
3−7
8.6
hits / game
8.2
1.13
home runs / game
1.15
2.6
walks drawn / game
3.2
7.8
batter strikeouts / game
8.5
7.6
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.4
0.65
errors / game
0.44

Rating Trend

SF · TEX · 129 days
San Francisco GiantsTexas Rangers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TEX 4−6
Aug 3at TEXSF 5 − 1
Apr 27, 2025at SFSF 3 − 2
Apr 26, 2025at SFSF 3 − 2
Apr 25, 2025at SFTEX 2 − 0
Jun 9, 2024at TEXTEX 7 − 2
Jun 8, 2024at TEXSF 3 − 1
Jun 7, 2024at TEXSF 5 − 2
Aug 13, 2023at SFSF 3 − 2
Aug 12, 2023at SFTEX 9 − 3
Aug 11, 2023at SFTEX 2 − 1

SF · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Aug 3at TEX5 − 1W
Aug 2at SD4 − 5L
Aug 1at SD5 − 6L
Jul 31at SD0 − 7L
Jul 30at SD4 − 1W
Jul 29vs MIL16 − 3W
Jul 28vs MIL2 − 8L
Jul 27vs MIL3 − 0W
Jul 26vs LAA3 − 4L
Jul 25vs LAA9 − 2W

TEX · Last 10

3−7 · streak L6
Aug 3vs SF1 − 5L
Aug 2at HOU3 − 7L
Aug 1at HOU4 − 5L
Jul 31at HOU2 − 11L
Jul 30at TB2 − 3L
Jul 29at TB0 − 3L
Jul 28at TB4 − 1W
Jul 27vs SEA7 − 3W
Jul 26vs SEA4 − 6L
Jul 25vs SEA7 − 1W