bayesRatings

Giants at Padres

MLB · Thursday, Jul 30 · 8:40 PM CT · Petco Park · Final SF 4 – SD 1
← MLB / Jul 30

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
SF1200100004110
SD010000000160
Team box
SF·SD
11
hits
6
1
home runs
0
3
walks
2
4
strikeouts
10
145
pitches thrown
155
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Daniel SusacSF1-3113
Rafael DeversSF3-4101
Xander BogaertsSD1-4001
Luis RengifoSD2-3000
Bryce EldridgeSF2-5000
Fernando Tatis Jr.SD1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Robbie Ray (W)SF6.04116
Erik Miller (S)SF1.01001
JP Sears (L)SD3.27312

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SD +3
SF +3
123456789
largest lead: SD 0 · SF 3lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SF 46%, SD 54% · Updated Jul 30

Expected margin
SD by 0.5
Expected score
SD 4.3 – 3.8 SF
Expected total
8.2
GiantsThe matchupPadres
+119Our fair odds−119
3.8Expected runs4.3
−0.08Power rating+0.04
4.2Runs / game4.2
4.7Allowed / game4.4
8.7Hits / game7.7
1.13Home runs / game1.09
2.6Walks drawn / game3.4
46−62Season record55−53
4−6Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SF chance · SD chance
Our model fair45.6%54.4%
Kalshi41.7%62.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SFSan Francisco Giants+11946%+14041.7%———
SDSan Diego Padres−11954%−16862.7%———
SpreadSD by 0.5
SFSan Francisco Giants+0.5our margin————
SDSan Diego Padres−0.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.2
Over8.2our total————
Under8.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

San Diego Padres by 0.5 expected
San Francisco Giants by 13 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 12 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 11 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 10 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 9 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 8 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 7 runs: 2%San Francisco Giants by 6 runs: 2%San Francisco Giants by 5 runs: 3%San Francisco Giants by 4 runs: 5%San Francisco Giants by 3 runs: 7%San Francisco Giants by 2 runs: 10%San Francisco Giants by 1 run: 15%San Diego Padres by 1 run: 15%San Diego Padres by 2 runs: 11%San Diego Padres by 3 runs: 8%San Diego Padres by 4 runs: 6%San Diego Padres by 5 runs: 5%San Diego Padres by 6 runs: 3%San Diego Padres by 7 runs: 2%San Diego Padres by 8 runs: 2%San Diego Padres by 9 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 10 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 11 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 12 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 13 runs: <1%
← SF wins bySD wins by →
San Diego Padres wins by 2 or more40%
San Diego Padres wins by 3 or more29%
San Francisco Giants wins by 2 or more31%
Decided by one run30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.2 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.563%
Total over 8.543%
Total over 10.526%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
SFRobbie Ray SP · last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 1.20 ERA, 15 Kstarted
SDJP Sears SP · last 3 starts: 14.1 IP, 2.51 ERA, 11 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SF·SD
Jul 29 vs MIL
last game
Jul 29 vs COL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 108+ games
SF·SD
−0.08
rating (0 = average)
+0.04
4.2
runs / game
4.2
4.7
runs allowed / game
4.4
46−62
season record
55−53
26−27
home record
29−24
20−35
away record
26−29
W1
streak
W5
4−6
last 10
7−3
8.7
hits / game
7.7
1.13
home runs / game
1.09
2.6
walks drawn / game
3.4
7.9
batter strikeouts / game
8.2
7.5
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.2
0.67
errors / game
0.41

Rating Trend

SF · SD · 124 days
San Francisco GiantsSan Diego Padres
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SD 6−4
May 6at SFSD 5 − 1
May 5at SFSD 10 − 5
May 4at SFSF 3 − 2
Apr 1at SDSD 7 − 1
Mar 31at SDSF 9 − 3
Mar 30at SDSF 3 − 2
Aug 21, 2025at SDSD 8 − 4
Aug 20, 2025at SDSD 8 − 1
Aug 19, 2025at SDSD 5 − 1
Aug 18, 2025at SDSF 4 − 3

SF · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Jul 29vs MIL16 − 3W
Jul 28vs MIL2 − 8L
Jul 27vs MIL3 − 0W
Jul 26vs LAA3 − 4L
Jul 25vs LAA9 − 2W
Jul 24vs LAA7 − 6W
Jul 22at KC4 − 5L
Jul 21at KC2 − 3L
Jul 20at KC3 − 4L
Jul 19at SEA3 − 6L

SD · Last 10

7−3 · streak W5
Jul 29vs COL3 − 1W
Jul 28vs COL8 − 7W
Jul 26at MIA5 − 3W
Jul 25at MIA7 − 2W
Jul 24at MIA4 − 2W
Jul 23at ATL5 − 6L
Jul 22at ATL6 − 7L
Jul 21at ATL8 − 3W
Jul 20at ATL2 − 3L
Jul 19at KC19 − 2W