bayesRatings

Padres at Marlins

MLB · Saturday, Jul 25 · 3:10 PM CT · loanDepot park · Final SD 7 – MIA 2
← MLB / Jul 25

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
SD0020001317110
MIA001000010250
Team box
SD·MIA
11
hits
5
0
home runs
0
4
walks
3
3
strikeouts
5
143
pitches thrown
153
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Ty FranceSD2-4103
Jase BowenSD1-1002
Jackson MerrillSD3-4200
Esteury RuizMIA2-2200
Otto LopezMIA1-2001
Kyle StowersMIA1-3001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Randy VasquezSD2.21120
JP Sears (W)SD3.11013
Eury Perez (L)MIA7.07312

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIA +5
SD +5
123456789
largest lead: MIA 0 · SD 5lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SD 50%, MIA 50% · Updated Jul 25

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
MIA 4.3 – 4.2 SD
Expected total
8.6
PadresThe matchupMarlins
+102Our fair odds−102
4.2Expected runs4.3
+0.02Power rating−0.02
4.1Runs / game4.4
4.4Allowed / game4.3
7.5Hits / game8.4
1.12Home runs / game1.02
3.4Walks drawn / game3.3
51−53Season record52−52
5−5Last 100−10

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SD chance · MIA chance
Our model fair49.6%50.4%
Kalshi44.7%59.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 3:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SDSan Diego Padres+10250%+12444.7%———
MIAMiami Marlins−10250%−14859.7%———
Spreadabout even
SDSan Diego Padres+0.1our margin————
MIAMiami Marlins−0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.6
Over8.6our total————
Under8.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
San Diego Padres by 12 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 11 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 10 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 9 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 8 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 7 runs: 2%San Diego Padres by 6 runs: 3%San Diego Padres by 5 runs: 4%San Diego Padres by 4 runs: 5%San Diego Padres by 3 runs: 7%San Diego Padres by 2 runs: 10%San Diego Padres by 1 run: 15%Miami Marlins by 1 run: 14%Miami Marlins by 2 runs: 10%Miami Marlins by 3 runs: 7%Miami Marlins by 4 runs: 6%Miami Marlins by 5 runs: 4%Miami Marlins by 6 runs: 3%Miami Marlins by 7 runs: 2%Miami Marlins by 8 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 9 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 10 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 11 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 12 runs: <1%
← SD wins byMIA wins by →
Miami Marlins wins by 2 or more37%
Miami Marlins wins by 3 or more27%
San Diego Padres wins by 2 or more35%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.6 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.566%
Total over 8.546%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
SDRandy Vasquez SP · last 3 starts: 11.1 IP, 9.53 ERA, 6 Kstarted
MIAEury Perez SP · last 3 starts: 19.0 IP, 0.95 ERA, 23 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SD·MIA
Jul 24 at MIA
last game
Jul 24 vs SD
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
6
9th straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 104+ games
SD·MIA
+0.02
rating (0 = average)
−0.02
4.1
runs / game
4.4
4.4
runs allowed / game
4.3
51−53
season record
52−52
27−24
home record
31−21
24−29
away record
21−31
W1
streak
L10
5−5
last 10
0−10
7.5
hits / game
8.4
1.12
home runs / game
1.02
3.4
walks drawn / game
3.3
8.3
batter strikeouts / game
8.2
8.2
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.4
0.39
errors / game
0.65

Rating Trend

SD · MIA · 119 days
San Diego PadresMiami Marlins
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIA 4−6
Jul 24at MIASD 4 − 2
Jul 23, 2025at MIAMIA 3 − 2
Jul 22, 2025at MIAMIA 4 − 3
Jul 21, 2025at MIASD 2 − 1
May 28, 2025at SDMIA 10 − 8
May 27, 2025at SDSD 8 − 6
May 26, 2025at SDSD 4 − 3
Aug 11, 2024at MIAMIA 7 − 6
Aug 10, 2024at MIASD 9 − 8
Aug 9, 2024at MIASD 6 − 2

SD · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Jul 24at MIA4 − 2W
Jul 23at ATL5 − 6L
Jul 22at ATL6 − 7L
Jul 21at ATL8 − 3W
Jul 20at ATL2 − 3L
Jul 19at KC19 − 2W
Jul 18at KC1 − 6L
Jul 17at KC6 − 7L
Jul 12vs TOR5 − 4W
Jul 11vs TOR8 − 7W

MIA · Last 10

0−10 · streak L10
Jul 24vs SD2 − 4L
Jul 22at HOU2 − 5L
Jul 21at HOU3 − 5L
Jul 20at HOU5 − 8L
Jul 19at MIL1 − 3L
Jul 18at MIL6 − 8L
Jul 17at MIL1 − 2L
Jul 12vs CLE2 − 5L
Jul 11vs CLE1 − 4L
Jul 10vs CLE2 − 3L