bayesRatings

Marlins at Brewers

MLB · Sunday, Jul 19 · 1:10 PM CT · American Family Field · Final MIA 1 – MIL 3
← MLB / Jul 19

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
MIA001000000161
MIL000000003340
Team box
MIA·MIL
6
hits
4
1
home runs
1
1
walks
4
10
strikeouts
12
150
pitches thrown
146
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
William ContrerasMIL1-2113
Esteury RuizMIA1-3111
Heriberto HernandezMIA2-4000
Griffin ConineMIA1-4000
Xavier EdwardsMIA1-4000
Jakob MarseeMIA1-3000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Eury PerezMIA6.01039
Pete Fairbanks (L)MIA0.12311
Robert GasserMIL5.03105
Grant Anderson (W)MIL1.00001

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIL +3
MIA +3
123456789
largest lead: MIL 2 · MIA 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIA 40%, MIL 60% · Updated Jul 19

Expected margin
MIL by 1.1
Expected score
MIL 4.8 – 3.8 MIA
Expected total
8.6
MarlinsThe matchupBrewers
+148Our fair odds−148
3.8Expected runs4.8
+0.01Power rating+0.34
4.5Runs / game5.1
4.3Allowed / game3.8
8.4Hits / game8.7
1.01Home runs / game0.92
3.4Walks drawn / game4.2
52−47Season record61−37
5−5Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIA chance · MIL chance
Our model fair40.4%59.6%
Kalshi47.7%56.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 1:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MIAMiami Marlins+14840%+10947.7%———
MILMilwaukee Brewers−14860%−13156.7%———
SpreadMIL by 1.1
MIAMiami Marlins+1.1our margin————
MILMilwaukee Brewers−1.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.6
Over8.6our total————
Under8.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Milwaukee Brewers by 1.1 expected
Miami Marlins by 14 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 13 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 12 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 11 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 10 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 9 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 8 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 7 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 6 runs: 2%Miami Marlins by 5 runs: 3%Miami Marlins by 4 runs: 4%Miami Marlins by 3 runs: 6%Miami Marlins by 2 runs: 9%Miami Marlins by 1 run: 14%Milwaukee Brewers by 1 run: 15%Milwaukee Brewers by 2 runs: 11%Milwaukee Brewers by 3 runs: 8%Milwaukee Brewers by 4 runs: 7%Milwaukee Brewers by 5 runs: 5%Milwaukee Brewers by 6 runs: 4%Milwaukee Brewers by 7 runs: 3%Milwaukee Brewers by 8 runs: 2%Milwaukee Brewers by 9 runs: 2%Milwaukee Brewers by 10 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 11 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 12 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 13 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 14 runs: <1%
← MIA wins byMIL wins by →
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 2 or more45%
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 3 or more34%
Miami Marlins wins by 2 or more27%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.6 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.566%
Total over 8.546%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
MIAEury Perez SP · last 3 starts: 18.1 IP, 1.47 ERA, 22 Kstarted
MILRobert Gasser SP · last 3 starts: 16.1 IP, 6.61 ERA, 12 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIA·MIL
Jul 18 at MIL
last game
Jul 18 vs MIA
0 days
days of rest
0 days
3
games in last 7 days
3
3rd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 98+ games
MIA·MIL
+0.01
rating (0 = average)
+0.34
4.5
runs / game
5.1
4.3
runs allowed / game
3.8
52−47
season record
61−37
31−20
home record
31−18
21−27
away record
30−19
L5
streak
W2
5−5
last 10
6−4
8.4
hits / game
8.7
1.01
home runs / game
0.92
3.4
walks drawn / game
4.2
8.1
batter strikeouts / game
8.2
8.5
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.7
0.64
errors / game
0.41

Rating Trend

MIA · MIL · 113 days
Miami MarlinsMilwaukee Brewers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIL 6−4
Jul 18at MILMIL 8 − 6
Jul 17at MILMIL 2 − 1
Apr 19at MIAMIA 5 − 3
Apr 18at MIAMIL 5 − 2
Apr 17at MIAMIL 7 − 5
Jul 27, 2025at MILMIL 3 − 2
Jul 26, 2025at MILMIA 7 − 4
Jul 25, 2025at MILMIA 5 − 1
Jul 6, 2025at MIAMIL 3 − 1
Jul 5, 2025at MIAMIA 4 − 2

MIA · Last 10

5−5 · streak L5
Jul 18at MIL6 − 8L
Jul 17at MIL1 − 2L
Jul 12vs CLE2 − 5L
Jul 11vs CLE1 − 4L
Jul 10vs CLE2 − 3L
Jul 9vs SEA8 − 4W
Jul 8vs SEA2 − 0W
Jul 7vs SEA6 − 5W
Jul 5at ATH9 − 8W
Jul 4at ATH7 − 2W

MIL · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
Jul 18vs MIA8 − 6W
Jul 17vs MIA2 − 1W
Jul 12at PIT5 − 14L
Jul 11at PIT2 − 3L
Jul 11at PIT6 − 7L
Jul 9at STL8 − 4W
Jul 8at STL1 − 5L
Jul 7at STL10 − 2W
Jul 7at STL4 − 3W
Jul 6at STL4 − 3W