bayesRatings

Mariners at Marlins

MLB · Thursday, Jul 9 · 5:40 PM CT · loanDepot park · Final SEA 4 – MIA 8
← MLB / Jul 9

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
SEA010010020472
MIA020400208122
Team box
SEA·MIA
7
hits
12
2
home runs
1
6
walks
5
9
strikeouts
4
122
pitches thrown
146
2
errors
2
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Griffin ConineMIA3-4211
Dominic CanzoneSEA2-5112
Randy ArozarenaSEA1-3211
Leo JimenezMIA2-4101
Otto LopezMIA1-3102
Jakob MarseeMIA2-3201
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Bryce Miller (L)SEA5.09443
Janson Junk (W)MIA5.03145

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIA +6
SEA +6
123456789
largest lead: MIA 6 · SEA 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SEA 49%, MIA 51% · Updated Jul 9

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
SEA 4.3 – 4.2 MIA
Expected total
8.6
MarinersThe matchupMarlins
+105Our fair odds−105
4.3Expected runs4.2
+0.04Power rating+0.03
4.1Runs / game4.6
3.8Allowed / game4.3
7.6Hits / game8.5
1.18Home runs / game1.01
3.3Walks drawn / game3.4
47−46Season record51−42
5−5Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SEA chance · MIA chance
Our model fair48.9%51.1%
Kalshi56.7%47.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SEASeattle Mariners+10549%−13156.7%———
MIAMiami Marlins−10551%+10947.7%———
Spreadabout even
SEASeattle Mariners−0.1our margin————
MIAMiami Marlins+0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.6
Over8.6our total————
Under8.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Seattle Mariners by 12 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 11 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 10 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 9 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 8 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 7 runs: 2%Seattle Mariners by 6 runs: 3%Seattle Mariners by 5 runs: 4%Seattle Mariners by 4 runs: 6%Seattle Mariners by 3 runs: 7%Seattle Mariners by 2 runs: 10%Seattle Mariners by 1 run: 12%Miami Marlins by 1 run: 17%Miami Marlins by 2 runs: 10%Miami Marlins by 3 runs: 7%Miami Marlins by 4 runs: 5%Miami Marlins by 5 runs: 4%Miami Marlins by 6 runs: 3%Miami Marlins by 7 runs: 2%Miami Marlins by 8 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 9 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 10 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 11 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 12 runs: <1%
← SEA wins byMIA wins by →
Seattle Mariners wins by 2 or more37%
Seattle Mariners wins by 3 or more27%
Miami Marlins wins by 2 or more34%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.6 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.566%
Total over 8.546%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
SEABryce Miller SP · last 3 starts: 17.2 IP, 2.04 ERA, 26 Kstarted
MIAJanson Junk SP · last 3 starts: 15.2 IP, 9.19 ERA, 10 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SEA·MIA
Jul 8 at MIA
last game
Jul 8 vs SEA
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
3rd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 93+ games
SEA·MIA
+0.04
rating (0 = average)
+0.03
4.1
runs / game
4.6
3.8
runs allowed / game
4.3
47−46
season record
51−42
27−20
home record
30−17
20−26
away record
21−25
L2
streak
W5
5−5
last 10
7−3
7.6
hits / game
8.5
1.18
home runs / game
1.01
3.3
walks drawn / game
3.4
8.7
batter strikeouts / game
8.1
8.6
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.4
0.49
errors / game
0.60

Rating Trend

SEA · MIA · 106 days
Seattle MarinersMiami Marlins
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIA 6−4
Jul 8at MIAMIA 2 − 0
Jul 7at MIAMIA 6 − 5
Apr 27, 2025at SEASEA 7 − 6
Apr 26, 2025at SEASEA 14 − 0
Apr 25, 2025at SEAMIA 8 − 4
Jun 23, 2024at MIAMIA 6 − 4
Jun 22, 2024at MIASEA 9 − 0
Jun 21, 2024at MIAMIA 3 − 2
Jun 14, 2023at SEAMIA 4 − 1
Jun 13, 2023at SEASEA 9 − 3

SEA · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
Jul 8at MIA0 − 2L
Jul 7at MIA5 − 6L
Jul 5vs TOR4 − 0W
Jul 4vs TOR11 − 0W
Jul 3vs TOR0 − 2L
Jul 2vs LAA1 − 0W
Jun 30vs LAA8 − 3W
Jun 29vs LAA6 − 2W
Jun 28at CLE5 − 6L
Jun 27at CLE3 − 4L

MIA · Last 10

7−3 · streak W5
Jul 8vs SEA2 − 0W
Jul 7vs SEA6 − 5W
Jul 5at ATH9 − 8W
Jul 4at ATH7 − 2W
Jul 3at ATH12 − 5W
Jul 2at COL4 − 14L
Jul 1at COL3 − 6L
Jun 30at COL14 − 3W
Jun 29at COL10 − 7W
Jun 28at STL1 − 2L