bayesRatings

Blue Jays at Mariners

MLB · Friday, Jul 3 · 9:10 PM CT · T-Mobile Park · Final TOR 2 – SEA 0
← MLB / Jul 3

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
TOR002000000260
SEA000000000042
Team box
TOR·SEA
6
hits
4
0
home runs
0
2
walks
2
5
strikeouts
12
142
pitches thrown
156
0
errors
2
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.TOR1-3001
Andres GimenezTOR1-3101
Sean KeysTOR2-4100
J.P. CrawfordSEA1-3000
Victor RoblesSEA1-2000
Dominic CanzoneSEA1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Dylan Cease (W)TOR7.03019
Louis Varland (S)TOR1.01001
Luis Castillo (L)SEA6.05214

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SEA +3
TOR +3
123456789
largest lead: SEA 0 · TOR 2lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TOR 48%, SEA 52% · Updated Jul 3

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
SEA 4.2 – 3.8 TOR
Expected total
8.0
Blue JaysThe matchupMariners
+109Our fair odds−109
3.8Expected runs4.2
+0.02Power rating+0.04
4.1Runs / game4.1
4.4Allowed / game3.9
8.3Hits / game7.7
1.01Home runs / game1.19
2.8Walks drawn / game3.4
41−46Season record45−43
3−7Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TOR chance · SEA chance
Our model fair47.9%52.1%
Kalshi57.7%47.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 9:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TORToronto Blue Jays+10948%−13757.7%———
SEASeattle Mariners−10952%+10947.7%———
Spreadabout even
TORToronto Blue Jays+0.4our margin————
SEASeattle Mariners−0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.0
Over8.0our total————
Under8.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Toronto Blue Jays by 12 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 11 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 10 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 9 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 8 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 7 runs: 2%Toronto Blue Jays by 6 runs: 2%Toronto Blue Jays by 5 runs: 3%Toronto Blue Jays by 4 runs: 5%Toronto Blue Jays by 3 runs: 7%Toronto Blue Jays by 2 runs: 10%Toronto Blue Jays by 1 run: 17%Seattle Mariners by 1 run: 13%Seattle Mariners by 2 runs: 11%Seattle Mariners by 3 runs: 8%Seattle Mariners by 4 runs: 6%Seattle Mariners by 5 runs: 4%Seattle Mariners by 6 runs: 3%Seattle Mariners by 7 runs: 2%Seattle Mariners by 8 runs: 2%Seattle Mariners by 9 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 10 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 11 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 12 runs: <1%
← TOR wins bySEA wins by →
Seattle Mariners wins by 2 or more39%
Seattle Mariners wins by 3 or more28%
Toronto Blue Jays wins by 2 or more31%
Decided by one run30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.0 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.561%
Total over 8.541%
Total over 10.525%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
TORDylan Cease SP · last 3 starts: 15.1 IP, 3.52 ERA, 25 Kstarted
SEALuis Castillo SP · last 3 starts: 17.1 IP, 2.08 ERA, 13 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TOR·SEA
Jul 1 vs NYM
last game
Jul 2 vs LAA
1 day
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 87+ games
TOR·SEA
+0.02
rating (0 = average)
+0.04
4.1
runs / game
4.1
4.4
runs allowed / game
3.9
41−46
season record
45−43
24−25
home record
25−19
17−21
away record
20−24
W1
streak
W3
3−7
last 10
6−4
8.3
hits / game
7.7
1.01
home runs / game
1.19
2.8
walks drawn / game
3.4
7.4
batter strikeouts / game
8.6
8.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.7
0.63
errors / game
0.49

Rating Trend

TOR · SEA · 100 days
Toronto Blue JaysSeattle Mariners
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SEA 3−7
Oct 20, 2025at TORTOR 4 − 3post
Oct 19, 2025at TORTOR 6 − 2post
Oct 17, 2025at SEASEA 6 − 2post
Oct 16, 2025at SEATOR 8 − 2post
Oct 15, 2025at SEATOR 13 − 4post
Oct 13, 2025at TORSEA 10 − 3post
Oct 12, 2025at TORSEA 3 − 1post
May 11, 2025at SEATOR 9 − 1
May 10, 2025at SEATOR 6 − 3
May 9, 2025at SEATOR 6 − 3

TOR · Last 10

3−7 · streak W1
Jul 1vs NYM9 − 3W
Jun 30vs NYM0 − 3L
Jun 29vs NYM2 − 1W
Jun 28vs TEX2 − 3L
Jun 27vs TEX4 − 7L
Jun 26vs TEX4 − 5L
Jun 25vs TEX5 − 6L
Jun 24vs HOU1 − 3L
Jun 23vs HOU7 − 9L
Jun 22vs HOU4 − 2W

SEA · Last 10

6−4 · streak W3
Jul 2vs LAA1 − 0W
Jun 30vs LAA8 − 3W
Jun 29vs LAA6 − 2W
Jun 28at CLE5 − 6L
Jun 27at CLE3 − 4L
Jun 26at CLE3 − 1W
Jun 25at PIT1 − 5L
Jun 24at PIT1 − 11L
Jun 23at PIT3 − 2W
Jun 21vs BOS3 − 1W