bayesRatings

Astros at Blue Jays

MLB · Wednesday, Jun 24 · 6:07 PM CT · Rogers Centre · Final HOU 3 – TOR 1
← MLB / Jun 24

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
HOU100000011340
TOR100000000142
Team box
HOU·TOR
4
hits
4
0
home runs
1
8
walks
2
8
strikeouts
6
141
pitches thrown
150
0
errors
2
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Nathan LukesTOR1-3111
Isaac ParedesHOU1-5001
Jeremy PenaHOU1-3101
Daulton VarshoTOR2-4000
Joey LoperfidoHOU1-3100
Yainer DiazHOU1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Mike BurrowsHOU6.02113
Steven Okert (W)HOU1.01001
Josh Hader (S)HOU1.00012
Trey YesavageTOR5.22155
Jeff Hoffman (L)TOR1.11012

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TOR +3
HOU +3
123456789
largest lead: TOR 0 · HOU 2lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was HOU 46%, TOR 54% · Updated Jun 24

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
TOR 4.7 – 4.3 HOU
Expected total
9.0
AstrosThe matchupBlue Jays
+116Our fair odds−116
4.3Expected runs4.7
−0.04Power rating+0.05
4.5Runs / game4.1
5.0Allowed / game4.5
8.2Hits / game8.4
1.32Home runs / game1.01
3.3Walks drawn / game2.8
38−43Season record39−40
6−4Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
HOU chance · TOR chance
Our model fair46.4%53.6%
Kalshi45.7%58.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:07 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
HOUHouston Astros+11646%+11945.7%———
TORToronto Blue Jays−11654%−14258.7%———
Spreadabout even
HOUHouston Astros+0.3our margin————
TORToronto Blue Jays−0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.0
Over9.0our total————
Under9.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Houston Astros by 13 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 12 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 11 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 10 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 9 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 8 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 7 runs: 2%Houston Astros by 6 runs: 3%Houston Astros by 5 runs: 4%Houston Astros by 4 runs: 5%Houston Astros by 3 runs: 7%Houston Astros by 2 runs: 9%Houston Astros by 1 run: 13%Toronto Blue Jays by 1 run: 15%Toronto Blue Jays by 2 runs: 10%Toronto Blue Jays by 3 runs: 7%Toronto Blue Jays by 4 runs: 6%Toronto Blue Jays by 5 runs: 4%Toronto Blue Jays by 6 runs: 3%Toronto Blue Jays by 7 runs: 2%Toronto Blue Jays by 8 runs: 2%Toronto Blue Jays by 9 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 10 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 11 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 12 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 13 runs: <1%
← HOU wins byTOR wins by →
Toronto Blue Jays wins by 2 or more38%
Toronto Blue Jays wins by 3 or more28%
Houston Astros wins by 2 or more34%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.0 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.558%
Total over 9.540%
Total over 11.525%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
HOUMike Burrows SP · last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 7.80 ERA, 11 Kstarted
TORTrey Yesavage SP · last 3 starts: 18.0 IP, 7.00 ERA, 14 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
HOU·TOR
Jun 23 at TOR
last game
Jun 23 vs HOU
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
3rd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 79+ games
HOU·TOR
−0.04
rating (0 = average)
+0.05
4.5
runs / game
4.1
5.0
runs allowed / game
4.5
38−43
season record
39−40
20−21
home record
22−19
18−22
away record
17−21
W1
streak
L1
6−4
last 10
6−4
8.2
hits / game
8.4
1.32
home runs / game
1.01
3.3
walks drawn / game
2.8
8.2
batter strikeouts / game
7.3
8.6
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.8
0.38
errors / game
0.62

Rating Trend

HOU · TOR · 91 days
Houston AstrosToronto Blue Jays
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TOR 3−7
Jun 23at TORHOU 9 − 7
Jun 22at TORTOR 4 − 2
Sep 11, 2025at TORTOR 6 − 0
Sep 10, 2025at TORHOU 3 − 2
Sep 9, 2025at TORTOR 4 − 3
Apr 23, 2025at HOUHOU 3 − 1
Apr 22, 2025at HOUHOU 5 − 1
Apr 21, 2025at HOUHOU 7 − 0
Jul 4, 2024at TORHOU 5 − 3
Jul 3, 2024at TORHOU 9 − 2

HOU · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Jun 23at TOR9 − 7W
Jun 22at TOR2 − 4L
Jun 21vs CLE2 − 1W
Jun 20vs CLE1 − 8L
Jun 19vs CLE9 − 3W
Jun 17vs DET4 − 2W
Jun 16vs DET4 − 2W
Jun 15vs DET3 − 9L
Jun 14at KC0 − 4L
Jun 13at KC8 − 7W

TOR · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Jun 23vs HOU7 − 9L
Jun 22vs HOU4 − 2W
Jun 20at CHC8 − 6W
Jun 19at CHC2 − 16L
Jun 18at BOS4 − 3W
Jun 17at BOS3 − 0W
Jun 16at BOS6 − 1W
Jun 14vs NYY3 − 8L
Jun 13vs NYY1 − 3L
Jun 12vs NYY8 − 5W