bayesRatings

Tigers at Astros

MLB · Wednesday, Jun 17 · 1:10 PM CT · Daikin Park · Final DET 2 – HOU 4
← MLB / Jun 17

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
DET000000101230
HOU00102100490
Team box
DET·HOU
3
hits
9
2
home runs
1
0
walks
3
9
strikeouts
4
134
pitches thrown
117
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Jeremy PenaHOU2-4112
Kerry CarpenterDET1-3111
Kevin McGonigleDET1-4111
Yordan AlvarezHOU1-4101
Isaac ParedesHOU1-4001
Cam SmithHOU2-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Casey Mize (L)DET4.26313
Peter Lambert (W)HOU7.02105
Josh Hader (S)HOU1.01103

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
HOU +4
DET +4
123456789
largest lead: HOU 4 · DET 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DET 48%, HOU 52% · Updated Jun 17

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
DET 4.5 – 4.4 HOU
Expected total
8.8
TigersThe matchupAstros
+107Our fair odds−107
4.5Expected runs4.4
−0.04Power rating−0.05
4.1Runs / game4.5
4.2Allowed / game5.1
7.8Hits / game8.2
1.11Home runs / game1.31
3.7Walks drawn / game3.4
30−43Season record34−41
5−5Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DET chance · HOU chance
Our model fair48.3%51.7%
Kalshi51.7%52.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 1:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DETDetroit Tigers+10748%−10751.8%———
HOUHouston Astros−10752%−11252.7%———
Spreadabout even
DETDetroit Tigers−0.1our margin————
HOUHouston Astros+0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.8
Over8.8our total————
Under8.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Detroit Tigers by 13 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 12 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 11 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 10 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 9 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 8 runs: 2%Detroit Tigers by 7 runs: 2%Detroit Tigers by 6 runs: 3%Detroit Tigers by 5 runs: 4%Detroit Tigers by 4 runs: 6%Detroit Tigers by 3 runs: 7%Detroit Tigers by 2 runs: 10%Detroit Tigers by 1 run: 11%Houston Astros by 1 run: 17%Houston Astros by 2 runs: 10%Houston Astros by 3 runs: 7%Houston Astros by 4 runs: 5%Houston Astros by 5 runs: 4%Houston Astros by 6 runs: 3%Houston Astros by 7 runs: 2%Houston Astros by 8 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 9 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 10 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 11 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 12 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 13 runs: <1%
← DET wins byHOU wins by →
Detroit Tigers wins by 2 or more37%
Detroit Tigers wins by 3 or more27%
Houston Astros wins by 2 or more35%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.8 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.568%
Total over 8.548%
Total over 10.531%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
DETCasey Mize SP · last 3 starts: 16.2 IP, 1.08 ERA, 14 Kstarted
HOUPeter Lambert SP · last 3 starts: 16.2 IP, 2.70 ERA, 13 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DET·HOU
Jun 16 at HOU
last game
Jun 16 vs DET
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
5th straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 73+ games
DET·HOU
−0.04
rating (0 = average)
−0.05
4.1
runs / game
4.5
4.2
runs allowed / game
5.1
30−43
season record
34−41
18−16
home record
17−20
12−27
away record
17−21
L1
streak
W1
5−5
last 10
5−5
7.8
hits / game
8.2
1.11
home runs / game
1.31
3.7
walks drawn / game
3.4
8.7
batter strikeouts / game
8.2
8.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.5
0.45
errors / game
0.39

Rating Trend

DET · HOU · 84 days
Detroit TigersHouston Astros
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · HOU 3−7
Jun 16at HOUHOU 4 − 2
Jun 15at HOUDET 9 − 3
Aug 20, 2025at DETDET 7 − 2
Aug 19, 2025at DETDET 1 − 0
Aug 18, 2025at DETDET 10 − 0
Apr 30, 2025at HOUDET 7 − 4
Apr 29, 2025at HOUHOU 6 − 4
Apr 28, 2025at HOUHOU 8 − 5
Oct 2, 2024at HOUDET 5 − 2post
Oct 1, 2024at HOUDET 3 − 1post

DET · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Jun 16at HOU2 − 4L
Jun 15at HOU9 − 3W
Jun 13at CLE1 − 3L
Jun 12at CLE2 − 3L
Jun 11vs MIN11 − 0W
Jun 10vs MIN4 − 6L
Jun 9vs MIN10 − 4W
Jun 7vs SEA5 − 4W
Jun 6vs SEA0 − 4L
Jun 5vs SEA7 − 3W

HOU · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Jun 16vs DET4 − 2W
Jun 15vs DET3 − 9L
Jun 14at KC0 − 4L
Jun 13at KC8 − 7W
Jun 12at KC10 − 8W
Jun 10at LAA2 − 3L
Jun 9at LAA1 − 10L
Jun 8at LAA5 − 4W
Jun 7vs ATH0 − 5L
Jun 6vs ATH13 − 2W