bayesRatings

Twins at Tigers

MLB · Wednesday, Jun 10 · 5:40 PM CT · Comerica Park · Final MIN 6 – DET 4
← MLB / Jun 10

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
MIN0100302006121
DET001020001460
Team box
MIN·DET
12
hits
6
2
home runs
0
5
walks
6
3
strikeouts
14
199
pitches thrown
148
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Byron BuxtonMIN2-4113
Gleyber TorresDET3-4001
Royce LewisMIN1-4111
Kerry CarpenterDET1-2002
Dillon DinglerDET1-5001
Josh BellMIN1-5001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Mike ParedesMIN3.01124
Taylor Rogers (W)MIN1.00002
Yoendrys Gomez (S)MIN1.02111
Framber Valdez (L)DET5.06422

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DET +3
MIN +3
123456789
largest lead: DET 0 · MIN 3lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIN 46%, DET 54% · Updated Jun 10

Expected margin
DET by 0.5
Expected score
DET 4.5 – 4.0 MIN
Expected total
8.6
TwinsThe matchupTigers
+118Our fair odds−118
4.0Expected runs4.5
−0.15Power rating−0.04
4.6Runs / game4.0
5.1Allowed / game4.3
7.9Hits / game7.8
1.12Home runs / game1.01
3.3Walks drawn / game3.7
30−38Season record28−39
3−7Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIN chance · DET chance
Our model fair45.9%54.1%
Kalshi41.7%62.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MINMinnesota Twins+11846%+14041.7%———
DETDetroit Tigers−11854%−16862.7%———
SpreadDET by 0.5
MINMinnesota Twins+0.5our margin————
DETDetroit Tigers−0.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.6
Over8.6our total————
Under8.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Detroit Tigers by 0.5 expected
Minnesota Twins by 13 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 12 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 11 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 10 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 9 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 8 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 7 runs: 2%Minnesota Twins by 6 runs: 2%Minnesota Twins by 5 runs: 4%Minnesota Twins by 4 runs: 5%Minnesota Twins by 3 runs: 7%Minnesota Twins by 2 runs: 9%Minnesota Twins by 1 run: 14%Detroit Tigers by 1 run: 14%Detroit Tigers by 2 runs: 10%Detroit Tigers by 3 runs: 8%Detroit Tigers by 4 runs: 6%Detroit Tigers by 5 runs: 5%Detroit Tigers by 6 runs: 3%Detroit Tigers by 7 runs: 2%Detroit Tigers by 8 runs: 2%Detroit Tigers by 9 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 10 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 11 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 12 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 13 runs: <1%
← MIN wins byDET wins by →
Detroit Tigers wins by 2 or more40%
Detroit Tigers wins by 3 or more30%
Minnesota Twins wins by 2 or more31%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.6 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.566%
Total over 8.546%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
MINMike Paredes SP · no recent starts on recordstarted
DETFramber Valdez SP · last 3 starts: 17.2 IP, 3.06 ERA, 14 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIN·DET
Jun 9 at DET
last game
Jun 9 vs MIN
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
5
2nd straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 67+ games
MIN·DET
−0.15
rating (0 = average)
−0.04
4.6
runs / game
4.0
5.1
runs allowed / game
4.3
30−38
season record
28−39
18−18
home record
17−15
12−20
away record
11−24
L3
streak
W2
3−7
last 10
6−4
7.9
hits / game
7.8
1.12
home runs / game
1.01
3.3
walks drawn / game
3.7
8.6
batter strikeouts / game
8.5
8.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.1
0.62
errors / game
0.46

Rating Trend

MIN · DET · 77 days
Minnesota TwinsDetroit Tigers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · DET 4−6
Jun 9at DETDET 10 − 4
Apr 9at MINMIN 3 − 1
Apr 8at MINMIN 8 − 6
Apr 7at MINMIN 4 − 2
Apr 6at MINMIN 7 − 3
Aug 17, 2025at MINMIN 8 − 1
Aug 16, 2025at MINDET 8 − 5
Aug 15, 2025at MINDET 7 − 0
Aug 14, 2025at MINDET 4 − 3
Aug 6, 2025at DETMIN 9 − 4

MIN · Last 10

3−7 · streak L3
Jun 9at DET4 − 10L
Jun 7vs KC5 − 6L
Jun 6vs KC2 − 3L
Jun 5vs KC5 − 3W
Jun 4vs KC6 − 8L
Jun 3vs CHW0 − 8L
Jun 2vs CHW6 − 4W
Jun 1vs CHW9 − 6W
May 31at PIT3 − 9L
May 30at PIT9 − 10L

DET · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
Jun 9vs MIN10 − 4W
Jun 7vs SEA5 − 4W
Jun 6vs SEA0 − 4L
Jun 5vs SEA7 − 3W
Jun 3at TB7 − 2W
Jun 2at TB8 − 0W
Jun 1at TB10 − 9W
May 31at CHW1 − 2L
May 30at CHW1 − 7L
May 29at CHW3 − 4L