bayesRatings

Twins at Tigers

MLB · Tuesday, Jun 9 · 5:40 PM CT · Comerica Park · Final MIN 4 – DET 10
← MLB / Jun 9

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
MIN1010200004100
DET1110232010100
Team box
MIN·DET
10
hits
10
4
home runs
4
3
walks
6
11
strikeouts
8
167
pitches thrown
167
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Dillon DinglerDET4-5324
Riley GreeneDET1-3212
Kerry CarpenterDET1-5112
Josh BellMIN2-5111
Brooks LeeMIN2-4111
Byron BuxtonMIN1-5111
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Taj Bradley (L)MIN4.17533
Troy Melton (W)DET5.08405

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DET +6
MIN +6
123456789
largest lead: DET 6 · MIN 1lead changes: 3

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIN 46%, DET 54% · Updated Jun 9

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
DET 4.5 – 4.1 MIN
Expected total
8.6
TwinsThe matchupTigers
+115Our fair odds−115
4.1Expected runs4.5
−0.14Power rating−0.05
4.6Runs / game3.9
5.0Allowed / game4.3
7.9Hits / game7.7
1.07Home runs / game0.97
3.3Walks drawn / game3.7
30−37Season record27−39
3−7Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIN chance · DET chance
Our model fair46.4%53.6%
Kalshi47.7%56.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MINMinnesota Twins+11546%+10947.7%———
DETDetroit Tigers−11554%−13156.7%———
Spreadabout even
MINMinnesota Twins+0.4our margin————
DETDetroit Tigers−0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.6
Over8.6our total————
Under8.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Minnesota Twins by 13 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 12 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 11 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 10 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 9 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 8 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 7 runs: 2%Minnesota Twins by 6 runs: 3%Minnesota Twins by 5 runs: 4%Minnesota Twins by 4 runs: 5%Minnesota Twins by 3 runs: 7%Minnesota Twins by 2 runs: 9%Minnesota Twins by 1 run: 14%Detroit Tigers by 1 run: 15%Detroit Tigers by 2 runs: 10%Detroit Tigers by 3 runs: 8%Detroit Tigers by 4 runs: 6%Detroit Tigers by 5 runs: 5%Detroit Tigers by 6 runs: 3%Detroit Tigers by 7 runs: 2%Detroit Tigers by 8 runs: 2%Detroit Tigers by 9 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 10 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 11 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 12 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 13 runs: <1%
← MIN wins byDET wins by →
Detroit Tigers wins by 2 or more39%
Detroit Tigers wins by 3 or more29%
Minnesota Twins wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.6 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.566%
Total over 8.546%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
MINTaj Bradley SP · last 3 starts: 13.2 IP, 5.93 ERA, 18 Kstarted
DETTroy Melton SP · last 3 starts: 20.2 IP, 1.74 ERA, 9 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIN·DET
Jun 7 vs KC
last game
Jun 7 vs SEA
1 day
days of rest
1 day
6
games in last 7 days
5
road after a home game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 66+ games
MIN·DET
−0.14
rating (0 = average)
−0.05
4.6
runs / game
3.9
5.0
runs allowed / game
4.3
30−37
season record
27−39
18−18
home record
16−15
12−19
away record
11−24
L2
streak
W1
3−7
last 10
5−5
7.9
hits / game
7.7
1.07
home runs / game
0.97
3.3
walks drawn / game
3.7
8.6
batter strikeouts / game
8.5
8.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.1
0.63
errors / game
0.47

Rating Trend

MIN · DET · 76 days
Minnesota TwinsDetroit Tigers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · DET 3−7
Apr 9at MINMIN 3 − 1
Apr 8at MINMIN 8 − 6
Apr 7at MINMIN 4 − 2
Apr 6at MINMIN 7 − 3
Aug 17, 2025at MINMIN 8 − 1
Aug 16, 2025at MINDET 8 − 5
Aug 15, 2025at MINDET 7 − 0
Aug 14, 2025at MINDET 4 − 3
Aug 6, 2025at DETMIN 9 − 4
Aug 5, 2025at DETMIN 6 − 3

MIN · Last 10

3−7 · streak L2
Jun 7vs KC5 − 6L
Jun 6vs KC2 − 3L
Jun 5vs KC5 − 3W
Jun 4vs KC6 − 8L
Jun 3vs CHW0 − 8L
Jun 2vs CHW6 − 4W
Jun 1vs CHW9 − 6W
May 31at PIT3 − 9L
May 30at PIT9 − 10L
May 29at PIT5 − 6L

DET · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Jun 7vs SEA5 − 4W
Jun 6vs SEA0 − 4L
Jun 5vs SEA7 − 3W
Jun 3at TB7 − 2W
Jun 2at TB8 − 0W
Jun 1at TB10 − 9W
May 31at CHW1 − 2L
May 30at CHW1 − 7L
May 29at CHW3 − 4L
May 28vs LAA1 − 7L