bayesRatings

Angels at Tigers

MLB · Thursday, May 28 · 12:10 PM CT · Comerica Park · Final LAA 7 – DET 1
← MLB / May 28

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
LAA0000300227110
DET010000000130
Team box
LAA·DET
11
hits
3
0
home runs
1
3
walks
7
12
strikeouts
9
153
pitches thrown
153
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Wenceel PerezDET2-3111
Mike TroutLAA2-3102
Donovan WaltonLAA3-4200
Vaughn GrissomLAA1-4102
Zach NetoLAA2-4101
Jorge SolerLAA1-4001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Grayson Rodriguez (W)LAA5.02125
Jack Flaherty (L)DET5.26319

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DET +6
LAA +6
123456789
largest lead: DET 1 · LAA 6lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAA 43%, DET 57% · Updated May 28

Expected margin
DET by 1.1
Expected score
DET 4.8 – 3.8 LAA
Expected total
8.6
AngelsThe matchupTigers
+135Our fair odds−135
3.8Expected runs4.8
−0.29Power rating−0.06
4.1Runs / game3.9
5.2Allowed / game4.3
7.5Hits / game7.8
1.18Home runs / game0.86
3.5Walks drawn / game3.8
21−35Season record22−34
5−5Last 102−8

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAA chance · DET chance
Our model fair42.5%57.5%
Kalshi46.7%57.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LAALos Angeles Angels+13543%+11446.7%———
DETDetroit Tigers−13557%−13757.7%———
SpreadDET by 1.1
LAALos Angeles Angels+1.1our margin————
DETDetroit Tigers−1.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.6
Over8.6our total————
Under8.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Detroit Tigers by 1.1 expected
Los Angeles Angels by 14 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 12 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 11 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 10 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 9 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 8 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 7 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 6 runs: 2%Los Angeles Angels by 5 runs: 3%Los Angeles Angels by 4 runs: 4%Los Angeles Angels by 3 runs: 6%Los Angeles Angels by 2 runs: 8%Los Angeles Angels by 1 run: 16%Detroit Tigers by 1 run: 12%Detroit Tigers by 2 runs: 11%Detroit Tigers by 3 runs: 8%Detroit Tigers by 4 runs: 7%Detroit Tigers by 5 runs: 5%Detroit Tigers by 6 runs: 4%Detroit Tigers by 7 runs: 3%Detroit Tigers by 8 runs: 2%Detroit Tigers by 9 runs: 2%Detroit Tigers by 10 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 11 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 12 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 13 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 14 runs: <1%
← LAA wins byDET wins by →
Detroit Tigers wins by 2 or more46%
Detroit Tigers wins by 3 or more35%
Los Angeles Angels wins by 2 or more26%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.6 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.566%
Total over 8.546%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
LAAGrayson Rodriguez SP · last 3 starts: 15.1 IP, 8.22 ERA, 17 Kstarted
DETJack Flaherty SP · last 3 starts: 13.0 IP, 6.92 ERA, 13 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAA·DET
May 27 at DET
last game
May 27 vs LAA
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
3rd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 56+ games
LAA·DET
−0.29
rating (0 = average)
−0.06
4.1
runs / game
3.9
5.2
runs allowed / game
4.3
21−35
season record
22−34
12−16
home record
14−13
9−19
away record
8−21
L1
streak
W1
5−5
last 10
2−8
7.5
hits / game
7.8
1.18
home runs / game
0.86
3.5
walks drawn / game
3.8
9.6
batter strikeouts / game
8.6
8.7
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.1
0.57
errors / game
0.50

Rating Trend

LAA · DET · 64 days
Los Angeles AngelsDetroit Tigers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · DET 6−4
May 27at DETDET 4 − 0
May 26at DETLAA 10 − 6
Aug 10, 2025at DETDET 9 − 5
Aug 9, 2025at DETLAA 7 − 4
Aug 8, 2025at DETDET 6 − 5
May 4, 2025at LAADET 13 − 1
May 3, 2025at LAALAA 5 − 2
May 2, 2025at LAADET 9 − 1
May 1, 2025at LAADET 10 − 4
Aug 29, 2024at DETLAA 3 − 0

LAA · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
May 27at DET0 − 4L
May 26at DET10 − 6W
May 24vs TEX2 − 1W
May 23vs TEX5 − 2W
May 22vs TEX9 − 6W
May 21vs ATH2 − 3L
May 20vs ATH5 − 6L
May 19vs ATH6 − 14L
May 18vs ATH2 − 1W
May 17vs LAD1 − 10L

DET · Last 10

2−8 · streak W1
May 27vs LAA4 − 0W
May 26vs LAA6 − 10L
May 24at BAL4 − 1W
May 24at BAL3 − 5L
May 22at BAL4 − 7L
May 21vs CLE1 − 3L
May 20vs CLE2 − 3L
May 19vs CLE3 − 4L
May 18vs CLE2 − 8L
May 17vs TOR1 − 4L