bayesRatings

Guardians at Tigers

MLB · Thursday, May 21 · 12:10 PM CT · Comerica Park · Final CLE 3 – DET 1
← MLB / May 21

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CLE002000010360
DET000000010160
Team box
CLE·DET
6
hits
6
1
home runs
1
1
walks
4
7
strikeouts
13
154
pitches thrown
147
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Dillon DinglerDET2-4111
Patrick BaileyCLE1-3111
Brayan RocchioCLE3-3100
Jose RamirezCLE1-4001
Daniel SchneemannCLE1-3101
Zack ShortDET1-2000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Joey Cantillo (W)CLE5.23036
Hunter Gaddis (S)CLE1.01002
Casey Mize (L)DET6.24204

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DET +3
CLE +3
123456789
largest lead: DET 0 · CLE 3lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CLE 51%, DET 49% · Updated May 21

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
CLE 4.0 – 4.0 DET
Expected total
8.0
GuardiansThe matchupTigers
−106Our fair odds+106
4.0Expected runs4.0
+0.09Power rating−0.04
4.4Runs / game3.9
4.0Allowed / game4.3
7.5Hits / game7.8
1.02Home runs / game0.86
4.4Walks drawn / game3.8
29−22Season record20−30
8−2Last 102−8

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CLE chance · DET chance
Our model fair51.4%48.6%
Kalshi48.7%56.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CLECleveland Guardians−10651%+10548.7%———
DETDetroit Tigers+10649%−13156.7%———
Spreadabout even
CLECleveland Guardians−0.1our margin————
DETDetroit Tigers+0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.0
Over8.0our total————
Under8.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Cleveland Guardians by 12 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 11 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 10 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 9 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 8 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 7 runs: 2%Cleveland Guardians by 6 runs: 3%Cleveland Guardians by 5 runs: 4%Cleveland Guardians by 4 runs: 6%Cleveland Guardians by 3 runs: 7%Cleveland Guardians by 2 runs: 10%Cleveland Guardians by 1 run: 16%Detroit Tigers by 1 run: 15%Detroit Tigers by 2 runs: 10%Detroit Tigers by 3 runs: 7%Detroit Tigers by 4 runs: 5%Detroit Tigers by 5 runs: 4%Detroit Tigers by 6 runs: 3%Detroit Tigers by 7 runs: 2%Detroit Tigers by 8 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 9 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 10 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 11 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 12 runs: <1%
← CLE wins byDET wins by →
Cleveland Guardians wins by 2 or more36%
Cleveland Guardians wins by 3 or more25%
Detroit Tigers wins by 2 or more34%
Decided by one run30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.0 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.561%
Total over 8.541%
Total over 10.525%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CLEJoey Cantillo SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 2.81 ERA, 9 Kstarted
DETCasey Mize SP · last 3 starts: 14.1 IP, 1.88 ERA, 14 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CLE·DET
May 20 at DET
last game
May 20 vs CLE
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
4th straight road game
home / road
7th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 50+ games
CLE·DET
+0.09
rating (0 = average)
−0.04
4.4
runs / game
3.9
4.0
runs allowed / game
4.3
29−22
season record
20−30
15−10
home record
13−11
14−12
away record
7−19
W5
streak
L5
8−2
last 10
2−8
7.5
hits / game
7.8
1.02
home runs / game
0.86
4.4
walks drawn / game
3.8
7.5
batter strikeouts / game
8.6
9.2
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.1
0.39
errors / game
0.54

Rating Trend

CLE · DET · 57 days
Cleveland GuardiansDetroit Tigers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · DET 3−7
May 20at DETCLE 3 − 2
May 19at DETCLE 4 − 3
May 18at DETCLE 8 − 2
Oct 2, 2025at CLEDET 6 − 3post
Oct 1, 2025at CLECLE 6 − 1post
Sep 30, 2025at CLEDET 2 − 1post
Sep 25, 2025at CLEDET 4 − 2
Sep 24, 2025at CLECLE 5 − 1
Sep 23, 2025at CLECLE 5 − 2
Sep 18, 2025at DETCLE 3 − 1

CLE · Last 10

8−2 · streak W5
May 20at DET3 − 2W
May 19at DET4 − 3W
May 18at DET8 − 2W
May 17vs CIN10 − 3W
May 16vs CIN7 − 4W
May 15vs CIN6 − 7L
May 13vs LAA4 − 2W
May 12vs LAA3 − 2W
May 11vs LAA7 − 2W
May 10vs MIN4 − 5L

DET · Last 10

2−8 · streak L5
May 20vs CLE2 − 3L
May 19vs CLE3 − 4L
May 18vs CLE2 − 8L
May 17vs TOR1 − 4L
May 16vs TOR1 − 2L
May 15vs TOR3 − 2W
May 14at NYM4 − 9L
May 13at NYM2 − 3L
May 12at NYM2 − 10L
May 10at KC6 − 3W