bayesRatings

Guardians at Tigers

MLB · Monday, May 18 · 5:40 PM CT · Comerica Park · Final CLE 8 – DET 2
← MLB / May 18

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CLE002023001890
DET100000010250
Team box
CLE·DET
9
hits
5
1
home runs
1
7
walks
3
7
strikeouts
5
131
pitches thrown
164
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Jose RamirezCLE3-4113
Matt VierlingDET1-3111
Rhys HoskinsCLE1-4002
Angel MartinezCLE2-5101
Riley GreeneDET2-2001
Chase DeLauterCLE0-4102
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Slade Cecconi (W)CLE7.15224
Framber Valdez (L)DET5.05443

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DET +6
CLE +6
123456789
largest lead: DET 1 · CLE 6lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CLE 50%, DET 50% · Updated May 18

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
DET 4.1 – 4.0 CLE
Expected total
8.1
GuardiansThe matchupTigers
+100Our fair odds−100
4.0Expected runs4.1
+0.07Power rating−0.01
4.4Runs / game4.0
4.1Allowed / game4.3
7.6Hits / game8.0
1.04Home runs / game0.87
4.4Walks drawn / game3.8
26−22Season record20−27
7−3Last 102−8

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CLE chance · DET chance
Our model fair50.0%50.0%
Kalshi45.7%59.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CLECleveland Guardians+10050%+11945.7%———
DETDetroit Tigers−10050%−14859.7%———
Spreadabout even
CLECleveland Guardians+0.1our margin————
DETDetroit Tigers−0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.1
Over8.1our total————
Under8.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Cleveland Guardians by 12 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 11 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 10 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 9 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 8 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 7 runs: 2%Cleveland Guardians by 6 runs: 3%Cleveland Guardians by 5 runs: 4%Cleveland Guardians by 4 runs: 5%Cleveland Guardians by 3 runs: 7%Cleveland Guardians by 2 runs: 10%Cleveland Guardians by 1 run: 16%Detroit Tigers by 1 run: 14%Detroit Tigers by 2 runs: 10%Detroit Tigers by 3 runs: 7%Detroit Tigers by 4 runs: 6%Detroit Tigers by 5 runs: 4%Detroit Tigers by 6 runs: 3%Detroit Tigers by 7 runs: 2%Detroit Tigers by 8 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 9 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 10 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 11 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 12 runs: <1%
← CLE wins byDET wins by →
Detroit Tigers wins by 2 or more36%
Detroit Tigers wins by 3 or more26%
Cleveland Guardians wins by 2 or more34%
Decided by one run30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.1 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.562%
Total over 8.542%
Total over 10.525%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CLESlade Cecconi SP · last 3 starts: 14.2 IP, 4.30 ERA, 13 Kstarted
DETFramber Valdez SP · last 3 starts: 15.2 IP, 6.32 ERA, 18 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CLE·DET
May 17 vs CIN
last game
May 17 vs TOR
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 47+ games
CLE·DET
+0.07
rating (0 = average)
−0.01
4.4
runs / game
4.0
4.1
runs allowed / game
4.3
26−22
season record
20−27
15−10
home record
13−8
11−12
away record
7−19
W2
streak
L2
7−3
last 10
2−8
7.6
hits / game
8.0
1.04
home runs / game
0.87
4.4
walks drawn / game
3.8
7.5
batter strikeouts / game
8.5
9.2
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.1
0.38
errors / game
0.57

Rating Trend

CLE · DET · 54 days
Cleveland GuardiansDetroit Tigers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · DET 4−6
Oct 2, 2025at CLEDET 6 − 3post
Oct 1, 2025at CLECLE 6 − 1post
Sep 30, 2025at CLEDET 2 − 1post
Sep 25, 2025at CLEDET 4 − 2
Sep 24, 2025at CLECLE 5 − 1
Sep 23, 2025at CLECLE 5 − 2
Sep 18, 2025at DETCLE 3 − 1
Sep 17, 2025at DETCLE 4 − 0
Sep 16, 2025at DETCLE 7 − 5
Jul 6, 2025at CLEDET 7 − 2

CLE · Last 10

7−3 · streak W2
May 17vs CIN10 − 3W
May 16vs CIN7 − 4W
May 15vs CIN6 − 7L
May 13vs LAA4 − 2W
May 12vs LAA3 − 2W
May 11vs LAA7 − 2W
May 10vs MIN4 − 5L
May 9vs MIN1 − 2L
May 8vs MIN6 − 4W
May 7at KC8 − 5W

DET · Last 10

2−8 · streak L2
May 17vs TOR1 − 4L
May 16vs TOR1 − 2L
May 15vs TOR3 − 2W
May 14at NYM4 − 9L
May 13at NYM2 − 3L
May 12at NYM2 − 10L
May 10at KC6 − 3W
May 9at KC1 − 5L
May 8at KC3 − 4L
May 6vs BOS0 − 4L