bayesRatings

Red Sox at Tigers

MLB · Wednesday, May 6 · 5:40 PM CT · Comerica Park · Final BOS 4 – DET 0
← MLB / May 6

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
BOS002200000440
DET000000000041
Team box
BOS·DET
4
hits
4
0
home runs
0
7
walks
5
15
strikeouts
7
137
pitches thrown
178
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Masataka YoshidaBOS2-4100
Caleb DurbinBOS1-4001
Riley GreeneDET2-4000
Willson ContrerasBOS0-3001
Marcelo MayerBOS1-3100
Matt VierlingDET1-3000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Sonny Gray (W)BOS5.04022
Jack Flaherty (L)DET5.032110

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DET +4
BOS +4
123456789
largest lead: DET 0 · BOS 4lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was BOS 48%, DET 52% · Updated May 6

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
DET 4.3 – 4.1 BOS
Expected total
8.4
Red SoxThe matchupTigers
+109Our fair odds−109
4.1Expected runs4.3
+0.05Power rating+0.05
4.0Runs / game4.5
4.3Allowed / game4.2
8.1Hits / game8.2
0.75Home runs / game0.97
3.3Walks drawn / game3.7
15−21Season record18−19
6−4Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BOS chance · DET chance
Our model fair47.9%52.1%
Kalshi52.7%52.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
BOSBoston Red Sox+10948%−11252.7%———
DETDetroit Tigers−10952%−11252.7%———
Spreadabout even
BOSBoston Red Sox+0.2our margin————
DETDetroit Tigers−0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.4
Over8.4our total————
Under8.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Boston Red Sox by 12 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 11 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 10 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 9 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 8 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 7 runs: 2%Boston Red Sox by 6 runs: 3%Boston Red Sox by 5 runs: 4%Boston Red Sox by 4 runs: 5%Boston Red Sox by 3 runs: 7%Boston Red Sox by 2 runs: 10%Boston Red Sox by 1 run: 14%Detroit Tigers by 1 run: 15%Detroit Tigers by 2 runs: 10%Detroit Tigers by 3 runs: 7%Detroit Tigers by 4 runs: 6%Detroit Tigers by 5 runs: 4%Detroit Tigers by 6 runs: 3%Detroit Tigers by 7 runs: 2%Detroit Tigers by 8 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 9 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 10 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 11 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 12 runs: <1%
← BOS wins byDET wins by →
Detroit Tigers wins by 2 or more37%
Detroit Tigers wins by 3 or more27%
Boston Red Sox wins by 2 or more34%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.4 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.565%
Total over 8.545%
Total over 10.528%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
BOSSonny Gray SP · last 3 starts: 13.0 IP, 4.15 ERA, 5 Kstarted
DETJack Flaherty SP · last 3 starts: 9.0 IP, 10.00 ERA, 11 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BOS·DET
May 5 at DET
last game
May 5 vs BOS
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
3rd straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 36+ games
BOS·DET
+0.05
rating (0 = average)
+0.05
4.0
runs / game
4.5
4.3
runs allowed / game
4.2
15−21
season record
18−19
6−10
home record
12−5
9−11
away record
6−14
W2
streak
L2
6−4
last 10
4−6
8.1
hits / game
8.2
0.75
home runs / game
0.97
3.3
walks drawn / game
3.7
8.4
batter strikeouts / game
8.4
8.1
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.3
0.50
errors / game
0.54

Rating Trend

BOS · DET · 42 days
Boston Red SoxDetroit Tigers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · DET 4−6
May 5at DETBOS 10 − 3
May 4at DETBOS 5 − 4
Apr 20at BOSBOS 8 − 6
Apr 19at BOSDET 6 − 2
Apr 18at BOSDET 4 − 1
Apr 17at BOSBOS 1 − 0
Sep 28, 2025at BOSBOS 4 − 3
Sep 27, 2025at BOSDET 2 − 1
Sep 26, 2025at BOSBOS 4 − 3
May 14, 2025at DETDET 6 − 5

BOS · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
May 5at DET10 − 3W
May 4at DET5 − 4W
May 3vs HOU1 − 3L
May 2vs HOU3 − 6L
May 1vs HOU3 − 1W
Apr 29at TOR1 − 8L
Apr 28at TOR0 − 3L
Apr 27at TOR5 − 0W
Apr 26at BAL5 − 3W
Apr 25at BAL17 − 1W

DET · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
May 5vs BOS3 − 10L
May 4vs BOS4 − 5L
May 3vs TEX7 − 1W
May 2vs TEX5 − 1W
May 1vs TEX4 − 5L
Apr 30at ATL5 − 2W
Apr 29at ATL3 − 4L
Apr 28at ATL2 − 5L
Apr 26at CIN8 − 3W
Apr 25at CIN2 − 9L