bayesRatings

Tigers at Red Sox

MLB · Monday, Apr 20 · 10:10 AM CT · Fenway Park · Final DET 6 – BOS 8
← MLB / Apr 20

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
DET0011010036101
BOS020001328120
Team box
DET·BOS
10
hits
12
0
home runs
0
4
walks
8
7
strikeouts
7
161
pitches thrown
160
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Riley GreeneDET2-3102
Isiah Kiner-FalefaBOS1-2002
Ceddanne RafaelaBOS1-2102
Carlos NarvaezBOS2-3101
Hao-Yu LeeDET2-4101
Masataka YoshidaBOS2-4200
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Jack FlahertyDET3.13063
Tyler Holton (L)DET0.24321
Sonny GrayBOS2.23112
Garrett Whitlock (W)BOS1.00000
Aroldis Chapman (S)BOS0.21001

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BOS +5
DET +5
123456789
largest lead: BOS 5 · DET 1lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DET 48%, BOS 52% · Updated Apr 20

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
BOS 4.2 – 4.2 DET
Expected total
8.4
TigersThe matchupRed Sox
+107Our fair odds−107
4.2Expected runs4.2
+0.08Power rating+0.05
4.3Runs / game3.9
3.4Allowed / game4.6
8.0Hits / game7.6
0.77Home runs / game0.62
3.6Walks drawn / game3.3
12−10Season record8−13
8−2Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DET chance · BOS chance
Our model fair48.4%51.6%
Kalshi46.7%57.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 10:10 AM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DETDetroit Tigers+10748%+11446.7%———
BOSBoston Red Sox−10752%−13757.7%———
Spreadabout even
DETDetroit Tigers+0.1our margin————
BOSBoston Red Sox−0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.4
Over8.4our total————
Under8.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Detroit Tigers by 12 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 11 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 10 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 9 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 8 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 7 runs: 2%Detroit Tigers by 6 runs: 3%Detroit Tigers by 5 runs: 4%Detroit Tigers by 4 runs: 5%Detroit Tigers by 3 runs: 7%Detroit Tigers by 2 runs: 10%Detroit Tigers by 1 run: 14%Boston Red Sox by 1 run: 16%Boston Red Sox by 2 runs: 10%Boston Red Sox by 3 runs: 7%Boston Red Sox by 4 runs: 6%Boston Red Sox by 5 runs: 4%Boston Red Sox by 6 runs: 3%Boston Red Sox by 7 runs: 2%Boston Red Sox by 8 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 9 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 10 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 11 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 12 runs: <1%
← DET wins byBOS wins by →
Boston Red Sox wins by 2 or more36%
Boston Red Sox wins by 3 or more26%
Detroit Tigers wins by 2 or more35%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.4 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.565%
Total over 8.545%
Total over 10.528%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
DETJack Flaherty SP · last 3 starts: 15.2 IP, 4.02 ERA, 19 Kstarted
BOSSonny Gray SP · last 3 starts: 16.1 IP, 3.86 ERA, 6 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DET·BOS
Apr 19 at BOS
last game
Apr 19 vs DET
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
4th straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 21+ games
DET·BOS
+0.08
rating (0 = average)
+0.05
4.3
runs / game
3.9
3.4
runs allowed / game
4.6
12−10
season record
8−13
8−1
home record
4−5
4−9
away record
4−8
W2
streak
L2
8−2
last 10
5−5
8.0
hits / game
7.6
0.77
home runs / game
0.62
3.6
walks drawn / game
3.3
8.2
batter strikeouts / game
9.1
8.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.8
0.55
errors / game
0.67

Rating Trend

DET · BOS · 26 days
Detroit TigersBoston Red Sox
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · BOS 3−7
Apr 19at BOSDET 6 − 2
Apr 18at BOSDET 4 − 1
Apr 17at BOSBOS 1 − 0
Sep 28, 2025at BOSBOS 4 − 3
Sep 27, 2025at BOSDET 2 − 1
Sep 26, 2025at BOSBOS 4 − 3
May 14, 2025at DETDET 6 − 5
May 13, 2025at DETDET 10 − 9
May 12, 2025at DETDET 14 − 2
Sep 1, 2024at DETDET 4 − 1

DET · Last 10

8−2 · streak W2
Apr 19at BOS6 − 2W
Apr 18at BOS4 − 1W
Apr 17at BOS0 − 1L
Apr 16vs KC10 − 9W
Apr 15vs KC2 − 1W
Apr 14vs KC2 − 1W
Apr 12vs MIA8 − 2W
Apr 11vs MIA6 − 1W
Apr 10vs MIA2 − 0W
Apr 9at MIN1 − 3L

BOS · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
Apr 19vs DET2 − 6L
Apr 18vs DET1 − 4L
Apr 17vs DET1 − 0W
Apr 15at MIN9 − 5W
Apr 14at MIN0 − 6L
Apr 13at MIN6 − 13L
Apr 12at STL9 − 3W
Apr 11at STL7 − 1W
Apr 10at STL2 − 3L
Apr 8vs MIL5 − 0W