bayesRatings

Red Sox at Cardinals

MLB · Friday, Apr 10 · 7:15 PM CT · Busch Stadium · Final BOS 2 – STL 3
← MLB / Apr 10

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
BOS000200000250
STL01002000381
Team box
BOS·STL
5
hits
8
0
home runs
0
0
walks
6
7
strikeouts
9
161
pitches thrown
114
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Wilyer AbreuBOS2-4000
Jose FerminSTL1-3001
Jordan WalkerSTL2-4100
Victor Scott IISTL1-2001
Thomas SaggeseSTL1-2001
Trevor StoryBOS0-4101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Connelly EarlyBOS4.15125
Zack Kelly (L)BOS0.22210
Dustin May (W)STL6.04104
Riley O'Brien (S)STL1.00001

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
STL +3
BOS +3
123456789
largest lead: STL 1 · BOS 1lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was BOS 50%, STL 50% · Updated Apr 10

Expected margin
BOS by 0.7
Expected score
BOS 4.9 – 4.2 STL
Expected total
9.1
Red SoxThe matchupCardinals
−102Our fair odds+102
4.9Expected runs4.2
+0.07Power rating−0.04
3.7Runs / game4.9
4.6Allowed / game5.2
7.4Hits / game7.5
0.75Home runs / game1.08
3.7Walks drawn / game4.4
4−8Season record7−5
3−7Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BOS chance · STL chance
Our model fair50.4%49.6%
Kalshi57.7%46.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 7:15 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
BOSBoston Red Sox−10250%−13757.7%———
STLSt. Louis Cardinals+10250%+11446.7%———
SpreadBOS by 0.7
BOSBoston Red Sox−0.7our margin————
STLSt. Louis Cardinals+0.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.1
Over9.1our total————
Under9.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Boston Red Sox by 0.7 expected
Boston Red Sox by 14 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 13 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 12 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 11 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 10 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 9 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 8 runs: 2%Boston Red Sox by 7 runs: 3%Boston Red Sox by 6 runs: 4%Boston Red Sox by 5 runs: 5%Boston Red Sox by 4 runs: 6%Boston Red Sox by 3 runs: 8%Boston Red Sox by 2 runs: 10%Boston Red Sox by 1 run: 11%St. Louis Cardinals by 1 run: 17%St. Louis Cardinals by 2 runs: 9%St. Louis Cardinals by 3 runs: 6%St. Louis Cardinals by 4 runs: 5%St. Louis Cardinals by 5 runs: 3%St. Louis Cardinals by 6 runs: 2%St. Louis Cardinals by 7 runs: 2%St. Louis Cardinals by 8 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 9 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 10 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 11 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 12 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 13 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 14 runs: <1%
← BOS wins bySTL wins by →
Boston Red Sox wins by 2 or more43%
Boston Red Sox wins by 3 or more32%
St. Louis Cardinals wins by 2 or more30%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.1 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.559%
Total over 9.541%
Total over 11.526%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
BOSConnelly Early SP · last 3 starts: 13.0 IP, 4.15 ERA, 16 Kstarted
STLDustin May SP · last 3 starts: 12.2 IP, 13.50 ERA, 12 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BOS·STL
Apr 8 vs MIL
last game
Apr 8 at WSH
1 day
days of rest
1 day
6
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 12+ games
BOS·STL
+0.07
rating (0 = average)
−0.04
3.7
runs / game
4.9
4.6
runs allowed / game
5.2
4−8
season record
7−5
3−3
home record
4−2
1−5
away record
3−3
W2
streak
W2
3−7
last 10
5−5
7.4
hits / game
7.5
0.75
home runs / game
1.08
3.7
walks drawn / game
4.4
9.5
batter strikeouts / game
8.2
8.5
pitcher strikeouts / game
6.2
1.00
errors / game
0.50

Rating Trend

BOS · STL · 16 days
Boston Red SoxSt. Louis Cardinals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · STL 5−5
Apr 6, 2025at BOSBOS 18 − 7
Apr 6, 2025at BOSBOS 5 − 4
Apr 4, 2025at BOSBOS 13 − 9
May 19, 2024at STLBOS 11 − 3
May 18, 2024at STLSTL 7 − 2
May 17, 2024at STLSTL 10 − 6
May 14, 2023at BOSSTL 9 − 1
May 13, 2023at BOSSTL 4 − 3
May 12, 2023at BOSSTL 8 − 6
Jun 19, 2022at BOSBOS 6 − 4

BOS · Last 10

3−7 · streak W2
Apr 8vs MIL5 − 0W
Apr 7vs MIL3 − 2W
Apr 6vs MIL6 − 8L
Apr 5vs SD6 − 8L
Apr 4vs SD2 − 3L
Apr 3vs SD5 − 2W
Apr 1at HOU4 − 6L
Mar 31at HOU2 − 9L
Mar 30at HOU1 − 8L
Mar 29at CIN2 − 3L

STL · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Apr 8at WSH6 − 1W
Apr 7at WSH7 − 6W
Apr 6at WSH6 − 9L
Apr 5at DET5 − 3W
Apr 4at DET6 − 11L
Apr 3at DET0 − 4L
Apr 1vs NYM2 − 1W
Mar 31vs NYM3 − 0W
Mar 30vs NYM2 − 4L
Mar 29vs TB7 − 11L