bayesRatings

Brewers at Red Sox

MLB · Tuesday, Apr 7 · 5:45 PM CT · Fenway Park · Final MIL 2 – BOS 3
← MLB / Apr 7

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
MIL000000200250
BOS00000300331
Team box
MIL·BOS
5
hits
3
0
home runs
0
3
walks
5
8
strikeouts
11
143
pitches thrown
139
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Trevor StoryBOS1-4002
Willson ContrerasBOS1-2100
Ceddanne RafaelaBOS1-2000
Caleb DurbinBOS0-1001
Gary SanchezMIL1-3000
Christian YelichMIL0-1001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Jacob Misiorowski (L)MIL5.123410
Garrett Crochet (W)BOS6.15227
Aroldis Chapman (S)BOS1.00010

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BOS +3
MIL +3
123456789
largest lead: BOS 3 · MIL 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIL 54%, BOS 46% · Updated Apr 7

Expected margin
MIL by 0.8
Expected score
MIL 5.0 – 4.1 BOS
Expected total
9.1
BrewersThe matchupRed Sox
−118Our fair odds+118
5.0Expected runs4.1
+0.31Power rating+0.05
6.8Runs / game3.6
3.8Allowed / game5.3
9.3Hits / game7.9
1.00Home runs / game0.90
5.6Walks drawn / game3.1
8−2Season record2−8
8−2Last 102−8

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIL chance · BOS chance
Our model fair54.2%45.8%
Kalshi43.7%61.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:45 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MILMilwaukee Brewers−11854%+12943.7%———
BOSBoston Red Sox+11846%−16161.7%———
SpreadMIL by 0.8
MILMilwaukee Brewers−0.8our margin————
BOSBoston Red Sox+0.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.1
Over9.1our total————
Under9.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Milwaukee Brewers by 0.8 expected
Milwaukee Brewers by 14 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 13 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 12 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 11 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 10 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 9 runs: 2%Milwaukee Brewers by 8 runs: 2%Milwaukee Brewers by 7 runs: 3%Milwaukee Brewers by 6 runs: 4%Milwaukee Brewers by 5 runs: 5%Milwaukee Brewers by 4 runs: 6%Milwaukee Brewers by 3 runs: 8%Milwaukee Brewers by 2 runs: 10%Milwaukee Brewers by 1 run: 11%Boston Red Sox by 1 run: 16%Boston Red Sox by 2 runs: 9%Boston Red Sox by 3 runs: 6%Boston Red Sox by 4 runs: 5%Boston Red Sox by 5 runs: 3%Boston Red Sox by 6 runs: 2%Boston Red Sox by 7 runs: 2%Boston Red Sox by 8 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 9 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 10 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 11 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 12 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 13 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 14 runs: <1%
← MIL wins byBOS wins by →
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 2 or more43%
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 3 or more33%
Boston Red Sox wins by 2 or more29%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.1 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.559%
Total over 9.541%
Total over 11.526%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
MILJacob Misiorowski SP · last 3 starts: 14.2 IP, 3.07 ERA, 21 Kstarted
BOSGarrett Crochet SP · last 3 starts: 18.2 IP, 2.41 ERA, 26 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIL·BOS
Apr 6 at BOS
last game
Apr 6 vs MIL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
5th straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 10+ games
MIL·BOS
+0.31
rating (0 = average)
+0.05
6.8
runs / game
3.6
3.8
runs allowed / game
5.3
8−2
season record
2−8
5−1
home record
1−3
3−1
away record
1−5
W2
streak
L3
8−2
last 10
2−8
9.3
hits / game
7.9
1.00
home runs / game
0.90
5.6
walks drawn / game
3.1
9.3
batter strikeouts / game
9.7
10.7
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.7
0.10
errors / game
1.10

Rating Trend

MIL · BOS · 13 days
Milwaukee BrewersBoston Red Sox
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · BOS 3−7
Apr 6at BOSMIL 8 − 6
May 28, 2025at MILMIL 6 − 5
May 27, 2025at MILMIL 5 − 1
May 26, 2025at MILMIL 3 − 2
May 26, 2024at BOSBOS 2 − 1
May 25, 2024at BOSMIL 6 − 3
May 24, 2024at BOSMIL 7 − 2
Apr 23, 2023at MILBOS 12 − 5
Apr 22, 2023at MILMIL 5 − 4
Apr 21, 2023at MILBOS 5 − 3

MIL · Last 10

8−2 · streak W2
Apr 6at BOS8 − 6W
Apr 5at KC8 − 5W
Apr 4at KC2 − 8L
Apr 4at KC5 − 2W
Apr 1vs TB8 − 2W
Mar 31vs TB6 − 2W
Mar 30vs TB2 − 3L
Mar 29vs CHW9 − 7W
Mar 28vs CHW6 − 1W
Mar 26vs CHW14 − 2W

BOS · Last 10

2−8 · streak L3
Apr 6vs MIL6 − 8L
Apr 5vs SD6 − 8L
Apr 4vs SD2 − 3L
Apr 3vs SD5 − 2W
Apr 1at HOU4 − 6L
Mar 31at HOU2 − 9L
Mar 30at HOU1 − 8L
Mar 29at CIN2 − 3L
Mar 28at CIN5 − 6L
Mar 26at CIN3 − 0W