bayesRatings

Rays at Brewers

MLB · Tuesday, Mar 31 · 6:40 PM CT · American Family Field · Final TB 2 – MIL 6
← MLB / Mar 31

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
TB100010000271
MIL00003201670
Team box
TB·MIL
7
hits
7
2
home runs
2
2
walks
5
8
strikeouts
6
140
pitches thrown
138
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Jake BauersMIL2-4211
Gary SanchezMIL1-1211
Jonathan ArandaTB1-4111
Nick FortesTB1-4111
Brice TurangMIL1-3002
Brandon LockridgeMIL2-4101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Shane McClanahan (L)TB4.22234
Brandon Woodruff (W)MIL5.04206

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIL +4
TB +4
123456789
largest lead: MIL 4 · TB 2lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TB 42%, MIL 58% · Updated Mar 31

Expected margin
MIL by 1.2
Expected score
MIL 4.9 – 3.7 TB
Expected total
8.6
RaysThe matchupBrewers
+140Our fair odds−140
3.7Expected runs4.9
+0.01Power rating+0.26
6.5Runs / game7.8
6.0Allowed / game3.2
12.0Hits / game10.2
0.75Home runs / game1.25
3.8Walks drawn / game6.0
2−2Season record3−1
3−7Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TB chance · MIL chance
Our model fair41.7%58.3%
Kalshi48.7%55.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TBTampa Bay Rays+14042%+10548.7%———
MILMilwaukee Brewers−14058%−12655.7%———
SpreadMIL by 1.2
TBTampa Bay Rays+1.2our margin————
MILMilwaukee Brewers−1.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.6
Over8.6our total————
Under8.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Milwaukee Brewers by 1.2 expected
Tampa Bay Rays by 14 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 13 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 12 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 11 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 10 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 9 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 8 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 7 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 6 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 5 runs: 3%Tampa Bay Rays by 4 runs: 4%Tampa Bay Rays by 3 runs: 6%Tampa Bay Rays by 2 runs: 8%Tampa Bay Rays by 1 run: 16%Milwaukee Brewers by 1 run: 12%Milwaukee Brewers by 2 runs: 11%Milwaukee Brewers by 3 runs: 8%Milwaukee Brewers by 4 runs: 7%Milwaukee Brewers by 5 runs: 5%Milwaukee Brewers by 6 runs: 4%Milwaukee Brewers by 7 runs: 3%Milwaukee Brewers by 8 runs: 2%Milwaukee Brewers by 9 runs: 2%Milwaukee Brewers by 10 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 11 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 12 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 13 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 14 runs: <1%
← TB wins byMIL wins by →
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 2 or more47%
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 3 or more36%
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 2 or more26%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.6 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.566%
Total over 8.546%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
TBShane McClanahan SP · last 3 starts: 13.0 IP, 9.00 ERA, 14 Kstarted
MILBrandon Woodruff SP · last 3 starts: 15.1 IP, 3.52 ERA, 20 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TB·MIL
Mar 30 at MIL
last game
Mar 30 vs TB
0 days
days of rest
0 days
4
games in last 7 days
4
5th straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 4+ games
TB·MIL
+0.01
rating (0 = average)
+0.26
6.5
runs / game
7.8
6.0
runs allowed / game
3.2
2−2
season record
3−1
0−0
home record
3−1
2−2
away record
0−0
W2
streak
L1
3−7
last 10
4−6
12.0
hits / game
10.2
0.75
home runs / game
1.25
3.8
walks drawn / game
6.0
8.2
batter strikeouts / game
7.8
5.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
14.2
1.25
errors / game
0.00

Rating Trend

TB · MIL · 6 days
Tampa Bay RaysMilwaukee Brewers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIL 4−6
Mar 30at MILTB 3 − 2
May 11, 2025at TBMIL 4 − 2
May 10, 2025at TBTB 3 − 2
May 9, 2025at TBTB 4 − 3
May 1, 2024at MILMIL 7 − 1
Apr 30, 2024at MILMIL 8 − 2
Apr 29, 2024at MILTB 1 − 0
May 21, 2023at TBMIL 6 − 4
May 20, 2023at TBTB 8 − 4
May 19, 2023at TBTB 1 − 0

TB · Last 10

3−7 · streak W2
Mar 30at MIL3 − 2W
Mar 29at STL11 − 7W
Mar 28at STL5 − 6L
Mar 26at STL7 − 9L
Sep 28, 2025at TOR4 − 13L
Sep 27, 2025at TOR1 − 5L
Sep 26, 2025at TOR2 − 4L
Sep 25, 2025at BAL5 − 6L
Sep 24, 2025at BAL6 − 2W
Sep 23, 2025at BAL0 − 6L

MIL · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Mar 30vs TB2 − 3L
Mar 29vs CHW9 − 7W
Mar 28vs CHW6 − 1W
Mar 26vs CHW14 − 2W
Oct 17, 2025at LAD1 − 5L
Oct 16, 2025at LAD1 − 3L
Oct 14, 2025vs LAD1 − 5L
Oct 13, 2025vs LAD1 − 2L
Oct 11, 2025vs CHC3 − 1W
Oct 9, 2025at CHC0 − 6L